Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining

[ucrdem]

Source: Newsweek

Updated Jul 17, 2024 at 3:17 PM EDT

Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.

(snip)

It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-data-five-thirty-eight-1926226

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"simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win."

[sinkingfeeling]

1. So, according to some, it's time to kick Biden off the ticket.

[Fearless]

3. They scream the loudest before they're squelched out.

[Bengus81]

21. Morning Joe spewing the shit non stop this morning

Hey Joe,your back on the air as long as you do this.........

I like their "poll" they found that according to Dem voters they want Biden out. LOL..they posted it and had it BACKWARDS showing a majority wanted Biden to stay.

Oppppsssss...quick get that changed!!

[kimbutgar]

2. The media wants that horse race to breathlessly report on

I’m not giving them ratings until the election is over and if convicted felon wins ( god forbid) msnbc and cnn will be gone by April 2025.

I do believe there are more of us who against the convicted felon. But the media want those views and clicks and will keep pushing him down our throats 🤮

[ucrdem]

4. I wish it was just ratings

But I think they're trying to get their felon elected by just making up stuff up, like the NYT June 18 editorial claiming Biden was showing mental incapacity.

[kimbutgar]

6. And if anyone listens to the convicted felon he sounds like an insane deranged man with low mental capacity

Whenever I can stand listening to the convicted felon I’m constantly going WTF did he say and it sounds crazy!

[ucrdem]

8. Idiot son speaking now at the convention

About the only factually accurate statement he's managed to squeeze out is that his sainted father got himself shot.

The rest? unspeakable stupidity ... "they want to put you in jail for making a meal" (speaking of women under Democrats)

It just gets worse ...

[BigDemVoter]

11. And at the same time

refusing to report on the most unfit felon to ever run for president in American history. It's just unfathomable. A criminal convicted of 34 felonies, impeached twice, a disastrous 4-years in office to include a million dead of Covid because of his incompetence, someone who cannot speak in full sentences and emits word salad every time he opens his pie hole. . . It is more than disgusting. I was watching a clip earlier of just how biased the media is. It included Jake Tapper simply responding with, "Uh huh" while one of the Trump sons (not sure which one) spewed bullshit about how " 'they' tired to kill my dad." One would THINK the Tapper idiot would have asked, "WHO tried?" Likewise, Katie Fucking Tur just purred about how 'serene' Cheeto seemed at the RNC. . . Lastly, everyone probably had the 'pleasure' of watching the Holt Hack just pestering Biden with question after question after question either 1) about his mental acuity or 2) how he might be responsible for the violence because of his 'violent rhetoric.' Un-fucking-believable. It's worse than I have ever seen it. AND they are giving **$$Y-Grabber a completely free ride. And I have watched a LOT of presidential elections. And this is the worst candidate by any objective measure that I have ever seen in my life.

[Tweedy]

13. That is a concern

Yes. The media has not covered themselves in glory here.
You would think the press was covering a beauty contest instead of the election of the U.S. president.
It is a sorry state of speculative, unsourced affairs with few exceptions.

[Ligyron]

5. Well, here at least is some GOOD news!

Let's see if somebody comes along to trash it.

[valleyrogue]

29. Rachel Maddow last night said in effect the reason Vance was picked

is because Trump is going to win, and it doesn't matter who he picks, even if who he picks is a lapdog for Peter Thiel.

It was such bullshit coming from somebody who has a Ph.D. and is a Rhodes Scholar. I had to shut her off because she is so damned ignorant.

[ZonkerHarris]

7. Register voters and GOTV!

[thesquanderer]

9. You can get whiplash reading about whether or not Florida is competitive. (n/t)

[AZ8theist]

10. Just sent a reply to an Adam Shiff funding request

...and told him NOT ANOTHER DIME until he retracts his comments about Joe dropping out. No more contributions until he wholeheartedly endorses President Joe Biden for re-election.

[Bayard]

12. We need more of this!

[Johnny2X2X]

14. Good news

I think the noise is stuff from a couple weeks ago that the media is recycling and making seem fresh.

Biden will be the nominee and he will win. There is not real effort to get him to step down, just conversations to make sure he can win.

[Chakaconcarne]

19. That's been my feeling as well.. We know it's a maga/russia based coordinated effort

and it's bloody desperate because they know TFG's chances of winning legitimately are extremely low.

All of the consternation around here and attacking our own is feeding the frenzy.

[mahina]

15. Kkk rrr

[SunSeeker]

16. K & R

[applegrove]

17. So it is a tie as Democrats have to always be 3 points ahead

to beat Republicans.

[moniss]

18. People need to

check the political donations received by these ones calling for Joe to leave. We are deeply into an age where "selling out" is considered to be a goal to make one successful rather than it showing a lack of integrity and general character.

[Chakaconcarne]

20. We have no widespread proof this is happening, but plenty of discussion around here as if it is...

[mucholderthandirt]

22. But, Biden is old!

Everybody wants him out!

He's got dementia, he can't keep a thought in his head, he can't finish a sentence without a trillion gaffes! What's wrong with you people?!!?

Oh. Wait. That's Trump. My bad. Carry on. Dems have to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again!

LET'S GO JOE! LET'S GO!

[SWBTATTReg]

23. And people are returning to the very valid belief that tRUMP would be a living, waking disaster to walk the

Country should he ever again, be in the WH.

tRUMP is a disaster. He's a rapist. He's cheated numerous times on his taxes. He's a racist. He's stupid and ignorant. He's cheated in his personal relationships/cheated on his wive(s) (probably on all of them too). And the list goes on and on...

[we can do it]

24. I don't see a video.

[ananda]

25. Good

This is what I like to hear.

[somaticexperiencing]

26. now that's some good news and good press. I think I'm just gonna leave it at that.

sometimes you just gotta celebrate.
even the smallest things.
or else nothing adds up to victory.

and sometimes, when things are down
you gotta do like in "Ricky Business"

really appreciate this post.
best news I have seen all day.

[orthoclad]

27. Three points isn't enough to overcome

all the skullduggery:
-challenging massive numbers of voters in blue areas
-intimidating poll workers and voters
-gaming the EC

We need to get serious about motivating the 1/3 of eligible non-voters. It will take massive numbers to beat the cheat.

Alright - there's a bumper sticker. "Beat the cheat. Vote!"

[valleyrogue]

28. I totally believe it. I think as long as Joe Biden is on the top of the ticket, Democrats will win

and perhaps win big. Those who try to sabotage Biden need to shut up, and I think they will after the convention.

I have never wavered from this feeling Biden will win a second term outright.

It makes no sense Trump could even remotely expand his base. If this were a different opponent, then it might be possible, but Trump is a known quantity, and I don't think most people want a repeat performance from him.