Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find

[Pototan]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by JudyM (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: N.Y. Times

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Biden's departure from the presidential race remade it.

Ms. Harris is ahead of Mr. Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from Aug. 5 to 9.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/harris-trump-battleground-polls.html

[groundloop]

1. Good news, but still not a big enough lead.....

I want a YUGE victory, enough to undeniably overcome any GQP dirty tricks, voter suppression, etc. and humiliate the shit out of 45*.

[Pototan]

3. The trend. Just watch the trend

4 points in these 3 states after trailing Trump most of the year is huge.

Now, the Harris Walz team needs to hold that lead and have it grow over time.

It's just such a positive sign that if we do our work and locate our votes and deliver by absentee ballot, early vote or getting out to vote on election day, we can win this thing.

[et tu]

9. yes we must win

bigly to make a statement that democracy
is here to stay!

[Jarqui]

2. Good pollster, +4 is probably beyond the margin of error

Can't check because I terminated my subscription due to their coverage of Joe Biden during this election.

[Pototan]

4. Actually, the margin of error is larger than usual

The margin of sampling error for the Michigan poll is plus or minus 4.8 points. For Pennsylvania, it is plus or minus 4.2 points. For Wisconsin, it is plus or minus 4.3 points. Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 619 voters in Michigan conducted from Aug. 5 to 8, 693 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from Aug. 6 to 9, and 661 voters in Wisconsin conducted from Aug. 5 to 8. By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park

[Jarqui]

5. Thx .. still a statistical tie then but there are a lot of polls like that with her ahead ..nt

[Pototan]

6. Trend lines

Trend lines are what's important.

[Johnny2X2X]

11. Since when did people start calling polls a statistical tie?

When they were within the margin of error. That’s not what polls say. Polls are a snap shot of probabilities. It’s normally distributed curves for both numbers. So the most likely truth is actually Harris plus 4. Second most likely is Harris plus 3 or plus 5. 3rd most likely is Harris plus 2 or plus 6 etc etc. Not very likely it’s tied and even less likely Trump is ahead.

I find it odd that the media is now calling polls statistical ties when that’s not how you describe polls unless it really is tied, say at 48-48 in this instance. I don’t remember people saying that it was a statistical tie when Trump was beating Biden in these same polls. They’re making it seem in this case like anything within the margin of error is a statistical tie, in that case Harris +8 would still be a statistical tie.

[jayschool2013]

7. Gift link

Have at it

[Jarqui]

8. Thank you. Pretty nice read ..

Much of the newfound Democratic strength stems from improved voter perceptions of Ms. Harris. Her favorability rating has increased 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania just in the last month, according to Times/Siena polling. Voters also view Ms. Harris as more intelligent and more temperamentally fit to govern than Mr. Trump.
...
Still, there is little doubt that replacing Mr. Biden on the ticket has turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm about the election. Among Democrats, voter satisfaction with their choice of candidates has skyrocketed since Ms. Harris entered the race, up 27 percentage points in the three swing states since May, according to the latest Times/Siena results. Democrats are now more likely to say they are satisfied with their candidate choices than Republicans, a reversal from three months ago, when the question was last asked.
...
In the three battlegrounds, Ms. Harris is in a stronger position than Mr. Biden was in May with most demographic groups, including white voters without a college degree. She is faring better with key parts of the Democratic Party’s coalition that had begun to erode under Mr. Biden, most notably Black and young voters. But she also appears to be holding on to older voters, who were some of the president’s most ardent supporters.

The share of voters who said they trusted Ms. Harris to handle economic issues was higher than the share Mr. Biden received in May, though she is still nine points behind Mr. Trump on an issue where the Republican nominee has long held the advantage. And she has a 24-percentage-point advantage when it comes to whom voters trust to handle abortion, an issue considered one of the strongest for Democrats — in May, Mr. Biden held an 13-percentage-point advantage on abortion.

Mr. Trump’s attacks on Ms. Harris as “not smart” and “incompetent” have not landed with most voters. Nearly two-thirds of voters see Ms. Harris as intelligent, more than say the same about Mr. Trump. A majority of white voters without a college degree — a demographic that typically favors Republicans — said Ms. Harris was “intelligent.”

There's more. Largely encouraging with some points of caution

538.com rates them the best/top 3. So it's pretty good information.

[ouija]

10. Yup, good news, but Harris needs to beat him biglyer

[lees1975]

12. The way the news media is manipulating and covering this election,

I don't trust it. This poll in particular. I'm glad to see the numbers looking favorable. But the coverage in the NYT has not exactly been unbiased. Their Siena poll missed the mid-terms badly, especially in New York. I do not consider them a reliable or unbiased source and I don't trust their polling data. I don't have a subscription and not getting one, so I can't read their explanation or apologetic, whatever you want to call it.

[Unbitten]

13. Good news, but

I’m still not thrilled by the degree to which the NYT is making the news, rather than reporting it.

[mdbl]

14. What is wrong with these morons that support Drump

or any repuglican at this point. That same question keeps coming to mind from every poll where some fools are saying they will vote for a convicted felon who will sell our country out to the first fascist or dictator that will help him build a hotel or keep him out of jail and void of accountability for his actions.

[JudyM]

15. Locking

The hosts voted to lock this as not important enough for LBN, especially considering the margin of error. As a general rule, polls should be posted in GD, so feel free to repost this in that forum.