Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Aug 21 2024 10:37 AM EDT Updated 12 Min Ago


The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of this year.

The revision to the total payrolls level of -0.5% is the largest since 2009. The numbers are routinely revised each month, but the BLS does a broader revision each year when it gets the results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures.

Even with the revisions, job creation during the period stood at more than 2 million, but the report could be seen as an indication that the labor market is not as strong as the previous BLS reporting had made it out to be. That in turn could provide further impetus for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revised-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html

---

Article updated.

Previous articles -

Published Wed, Aug 21 2024 10:37 AM EDT Updated 3 Min Ago


The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of the following year.

Wall Street had been watching the numbers closely, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported numbers. Even with the revisions, job creation during the period stood at more than 2 million, but the report could be seen as indication that the labor market is not as strong as the previous BLS reporting had made it out to be.

At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less. Other areas revised lower included leisure and hospitality (-150,000), manufacturing (-115,000) and trade, transportation and utilities (-104,000). Within the trade category, retail trade numbers were cut by 129,000.

Published Wed, Aug 21 2024 10:37 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of the following year.

Wall Street had been watching the numbers closely, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported numbers. Even with the revisions, job creation during the period stood at more than 2 million, but the report could be seen as indication that the labor market is not as strong as the previous BLS reporting had made it out to be.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

Original article -

Published Wed, Aug 21 2024 10:37 AM EDT Updated Moments Ago


The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

[kansasobama]

1. Trump will use this to bash us

Dang

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Not with this economy

But they would try to manufacture something out of thin air when given the chance.

It will provide more data points for the Fed for their decision to start cutting interest rates.

[progree]

2. From the source

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm

CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement
In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2025 with the publication of the January 2025 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For National CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus one-tenth of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates an adjustment to March 2024 total nonfarm employment of -818,000 (-0.5 percent).

Preliminary benchmark revisions are calculated only for the month of March 2024 for the major industry sectors in table 1. The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued.

Table 1 shows the March 2024 preliminary benchmark revisions by major industry sector. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at an aggregated level.

Table 1. National Current Employment Statistics March 2024
Preliminary Benchmark Revisions by Major Industry Sector
Benchmark revision (in thousands), Percent
Total nonfarm -818 , -0.5
Total private -819 , -0.6
(snipped more rows of subsectors -Progree)

All emphasis added

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. Labor market was weaker than previously reported, in big fix to jobs data

Labor market was weaker than previously reported, in big fix to jobs data
The U.S. added 818,000 fewer jobs for the period of April 2023 through March 2024, one of the biggest revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statics.

By Lauren Kaori Gurley and Rachel Siegel
August 21, 2024 at 11:11 a.m. EDT

Job growth in the United States in the year ending in March was far less robust than previously reported by the federal government. ... The government reported Wednesday that the economy created 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 through March 2024, in the biggest revision to federal jobs data in 15 years, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statics. ... The revisions could add to pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, because they indicate the labor market wasn’t quite as strong as it looked during this period.

“We already knew we had been living the best of consumers being discerning but not defeated. That narrative is contingent on the labor market holding up and layoffs remaining in check,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “The Fed needs to cut if they want to sustain the Goldilocks scenario.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases revisions to data all the time, but it’s unusual for revisions to be this large. This set of revisions is considered preliminary; the figure will be finalized in February.

The new data comes as Federal Reserve officials are headed to Wyoming for the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, a “who’s who” of global policymakers and economists. The financial markets were already eager for Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s speech there on Friday, anxious for hints about a September rate cut. But now, Fed officials will be pressed to explain how the paired-back jobs figures shape their understanding of an economy that continues to surprise.

{snip}

By Lauren Kaori Gurley
Lauren Kaori Gurley is the labor reporter for The Washington Post. She previously covered labor and tech for Vice for three years. Twitter

By Rachel Siegel
Rachel Siegel is an economics reporter covering the Federal Reserve. She previously covered breaking news for the Post's financial section and local politics for the Post's Metro desk. Before joining the Post in June 2017, Rachel contributed to The Marshall Project and The Dallas Morning News. Twitter

[Backseat Driver]

5. Oh, come on...

That's around the same numbers of Trump's American pandemic deaths and the healthy, always present "estimated churn" just coming and going, (unless you happen to be one as you age)...Just who were those "essential" workers filling the void then...disposable humans in created jobs to make all things seem rosy while opportunities for signing up by those ineligible criminally-minded opportunists for PPE funds or by rapid justice, stalled by infinite forensic investigations and DOJ folks looking for a bigger fish, that "happened" state-wise in safety net agencies, and greedflation by corporate fascists raged post-pandemic? This brought damage to hard workers with dreams and sent more seniors back for those "black" jobs to stay alive (Americans don't like human beings to actually starve, but it's a-okay to murder by economic proxy of hunger, homelessness, or joblessness if you're a Trumpster GOP. If you are a woman, it's even worse...besides the ever-present misogyny from the days post Garden of Eden, the fundie Christofascists want you to die for lack of reproductive-related healthcare or stay happily with your abuser as "God's judgement" for your disappointing choices. BTW, ageism is real too; maybe all those "fake" created jobs were meant for those under 40 so they had time to get back their 1st million in their 401's...Frankly, I'm an early boomer and terrified if Kamala doesn't win. Thank you, Joe Biden, for wielding the helm during all this Trump criminality revealed and craziness and giving Kamala a pathway to the presidency! I will never recover socioeconomic stability, but I will perhaps survive longer because I have a vote in who leads this nation!

[hueymahl]

8. You make some good points

But dang, it’s hard to follow your writing style, lol. Maybe add in a paragraph break or two? 😂

[Backseat Driver]

9. Sorry, I will probably always get emotional and lose written style points.

Once my button is pushed, it all comes out like going over Niagara Falls in a barrel.

[hueymahl]

13. Appreciate the passion!!

[progree]

6. Comparison to Household Survey's Employed -

Establishment Survey's headline nonfarm payroll jobs, as compared to the Employed number in the Household Survey - I've been yammering about this for months..

Everyone in pundit-land says the payroll job numbers is the more comprehensive survey, and indeed the BLS, which produces both numbers, says as much, comparing sampling error in the 2 surveys. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

Here's my latest yammer from the August 2 jobs report --
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3283653

The headline payroll job numbers (114,000 in July) come from the Establishment Survey
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 251 862 494 272 286 420 690 243 255 361 258 136
2023: 482 287 146 278 303 240 184 210 246 165 182 290
2024: 256 236 310 108 216 179 114 (Sum is 1419 year to date, that's 1.419 million)
The last 2 months (June and July) are preliminary, subject to revisions


# Employed in thousands (67,000 in July) come from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
If one adjusts the date range from 2021 to 2024, the graph is much more meaningful because it leaves out the huge swings of 2020 that greatly enlarges the Y axis and makes what follows look like tiny almost undiscernible squiggles around the zero axis
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 942 462 691 --331 426 --198 166 476 136 --165 --244 815
2023: 852 149 523 138 --255 297 205 291 50 --270 586 --683
2024: --31 --184 498 25 --408 116 67 (Sum is 83 year to date. That's 83,000 more employed.
Compare to the above series: 1.419 million more jobs)
January and February of each year are affected by changes in population controls.
A very volatile data series from month to month. I used a double minus to make the negative ones stand out a little better
This Household Survey also produces the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate among many other stats

###################################################################################

The April 2023 thru March 2024 Establishment nonfarm payroll job numbers in the above is (in thousands):
278 + 303 + 240 + 184 + 210 + 246 + 165 + 182 + 290 + 256 + 236 + 310 = 2900

Now with 818k fewer jobs in that period, as reported in the OP, it is 2900k - 818k = 2082k jobs

The April 2023 thru March 2024 Household Survey's "Employed" numbers in the above is (in thousands):
138 - 255 + 297 + 205 + 291 + 50 - 270 + 586 - 683 - 31 - 184 + 498 = 642k jobs

Old discrepancy: 2900k - 642k = 2258k (188k/mo average)
New discrepancy: 2082k - 642k = 1440k (120k/mo average)

###################################################################################

On top of all of this is a problem in the Household Survey (I believe the Current Population Survey is the same as the Household Survey):
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111698633

According to a report by Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson at the Brookings Institution released this week (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/strong-labor-market-boosted-us-born-employment/ ),

We estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) show a decline of 190,000. In addition, we estimate that the increase in employment among foreign-born people was 1.7 million, larger than the 1.2 million in the published data

((So the claim is the published data shows -190k + 1200k = 1010k additional jobs in this period (my adding machine gets 1000k, not a biggie difference, I suspect they rounded 1190k to 1.2 million in the above narrative).
while they estimate 740k + 1700k = 2440k additional jobs in this period
for a difference of 1430k or 1440k jobs -Progree))
. . .
We find that the published data in the CPS significantly underestimate population growth from January 2023 to January 2024 and, thus, employment growth over the year for both groups. It is perhaps counterintuitive that measurement issues stemming from an unexpected surge in net migration would result in the underestimation of the growth in the U.S.-born population, but this is indeed the case.

###################################################################################

So we've got 2 discrepancies:

The Establishment Survey (nonfarm payroll jobs) is high by 818k as reported in the OP (preliminary estimate) in April 2023 thru March 2024. Correcting the Establishment Survey's numbers brings the discrepancy between the Establishment Survey and the Household Survey down to 1440k

The Household Survey may be low by 1430k or 1440k in the "January 2023 to January 2024" period

Since the two time periods are different, one can't algebraically add the two discrepancies together. If they were the same period (April 2023 thru March 2024), then I'd say that this reduces the discrepancy between the establishment survey and the household survey from 1440k to 0k or 10k. That would be nice, but the periods aren't quite the same.

By the way, if one wants to dig into foreign born and native born, this tool might help:

Data finder tool: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

Edited to add the source of the revised CPS/Household Survey discrepancy estimate -- Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson at the Brookings Institution

[Yavin4]

7. We should've had a Fed rate cut in July. n/t

[Ace Rothstein]

12. They dropped the ball on raising the rate too late and now they're gonna do the same on cutting the rate.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

10. Trump cries foul as job numbers for 2023 revised down by 818,000

Trump cries foul as job numbers for 2023 revised down by 818,000
At a speech in Michigan, Trump spoke about crime and the economy

Published: Aug 21, 2024, 12:29 p.m. MDT
By Suzanne Bates

The Department of Labor announced Wednesday it was revising down its initial assessment of how many jobs were added in 2023 by 818,000 jobs. Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump called the changes “fraudulent” while he was speaking at a campaign event in Michigan to talk about crime.

An estimated 2 million jobs were added in the U.S. in 2023, not 2.9 million as initially reported. The numbers won’t be finalized until February, and could be revised again. ... It is normal for the Labor Department to revise its numbers after a fiscal year ends, but 818,000 is a larger drop than is typical. ... “This year’s revision was unusually large,” The New York Times reported. “Over the previous decade, the annual updates had added or subtracted an average of about 173,000 jobs to each year’s total.”

At his campaign event, Trump spoke about the big drop, accusing the Biden administration of inflating the numbers on purpose. “There has been a report that the job numbers over the last period of time were fraudulent,” he claimed.

{snip}

The Wall Street Journal reported, “Investors had already been anticipating a downward adjustment for the period in question. More broadly, many haven’t quite believed that the labor market was as strong as payroll figures have suggested because other data points. —such as a rising unemployment rate — have told a less rosy story.”

{snip}

Even the Washington Times is correcting him.

Trump says big downward revision in jobs numbers reveals Biden-Harris team hid economic truth

By Seth McLaughlin - The Washington Times - Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump pounced on the news the federal government overstated job creation numbers, blaming the Biden-Harris administration for a “massive scandal” of manipulating data to make their economic policies look good. ... The Department of Labor released revised hiring statistics showing the nation added 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported between early 2023 and early 2024.

“It really isn’t a revision — it is a total lie,” Mr. Trump said at a campaign stop in Asheboro, North Carolina. “There has never been any revision like this.” ... He said President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, got “caught.”

“They wanted it to come out after the election, but somehow it got leaked. The Harris-Biden administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating jobs statutes to hide the true extent of the economic ruin that they have inflicted on America,” Mr. Trump said.

The updated numbers did not come from a leak but from a routine preliminary data revision that the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases semiannually. ... However, the report did reflect the biggest downgrade since 2009. It is the latest evidence that the job market is steadily slowing and adds to expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates soon.

{snip}

[BumRushDaShow]

11. "Trump cries foul"

He's been "crying foul" about people being mean to him too.

Good morning!