CNN GA and NC update

[WSHazel]

Source: CNN

More than half of the likely electorate in both Georgia (59%) and North Carolina (52%) say they’ve already cast their ballots, with those voters splitting narrowly toward Harris by a 7-point margin in Georgia and by 6 points in North Carolina.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/cnn-poll-georgia-north-carolina/index.html

---

A 7 point margin with over half the vote cast in Georgia is not a narrow margin. Nor is a 6 point margin with over half the vote cast in North Carolina. Party ID stats for both states actually give Republicans a slight edge, so Harris' leads in these two states are looking better and better.

CNN has decided to die on the hill of its LV screen. When over half the vote, split evenly by party ID, is coming back with Harris with a material lead, maybe their LV screen is a bit off. We will know soon enough if they are right.

[pwb]

1. 6% and 7% is not a narrow lead.

We will win them by 10%. IMO.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. If the GA data is correct, Trump would need to win on election day by more than 10 to have a shot

She has built a big lead, we'll see if it can hold.

The thing about having already voted is that it's 100% concrete where as likely voters will still be some people not showing on election day.

[Hieronymus Phact]

12. Polling before and after

What will you do?
Is very different from
What did you do?

[Coexist]

11. OMG! I know that's the first thing I noticed that his HUGE!

[mahina]

20. Came to say it. Seconded.

[Smooth155]

31. So true

When I read this, I was like since when is a 6-to-7-point lead considered narrow

[Polybius]

35. No chance of winning by 10%

The vast majority of the latest voters will be Republicans, so that 6% and 7% lead will shrink, not expand.

[Deminpenn]

37. No, the comment was Trump

would have to win election day voters by 10 pts to have a chance at winning.

[Novara]

2. When do they start counting the early vote/absentee ballots?

We are not likely to know who won on election day. Some states won't begin counting mail in ballots until election day, some allow for them to be received after elections day (postmarked by election day), etc.

Unless it's a blowout, we probably won't know for several days.

[getagrip_already]

9. GA will be quick.... not sure about NC

GA made some changes after 2016 that should speed up reporting. Unless it was mucked with by the new election board.

Likewise, FL will be quick. We should know both the same night.

If we get either, put a fork in him.

[GB_RN]

16. I Think...

That the state’s court system has put the kibosh on their attempts to make things difficult and allow for shenanigans.

[GB_RN]

15. Here In NC...

If I’m not mistaken and remember correctly, they are counted as they are cast: We use optical scan ballots and you put in the scanner when you’re done marking it. The totals aren’t available for submission until Election Night, however.

[ColinC]

28. In most states it is cou ted before election day and reported almost immediately after polls close

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin I think are two exceptions.

[Deminpenn]

38. After the 2020 election, PA

legislature passed a bill, signed by our D gov, that mandates continuous counting of mail ballots.

Mail ballots can't be opened until election day, but some counties could bring election workers in early to begin the process. I'm sure some counties have scheduled shifts for the continuous count mandate.

[ColinC]

40. This is great news!

Hopefully it speeds things up substantially

[WhiteTara]

3. another Dems in Disarray

Narrow lead, my democratic ass. Why do they do these things? Really. Why?

[democratsruletheday]

32. why ask why? Always about the money derived from

clicks. Lots and LOTS of clicks.

[WhiteTara]

33. Oh. My mind hasn't really

latched onto the new monetization of the internet.

[democratsruletheday]

34. lol...greeeeeeeeeeed

same as it ever was

[sinkingfeeling]

4. What you said.

[JT45242]

5. A seven point lead is huge with that much volume

If you had a poll with that many people the MOE would be tiny.

Would love to see racial and gender breakdown.

Plus the line from another post "we're all Puerto Rican now."

Reminds of the comedian who talked about growing up and being asked "what kind of Mexican are you?" When white or black people think all Hispanic heritages are part of Mexico. Might have been fluffy or someone from the 80s...

[SheltieLover]

26. Nbc site breaks it down for some demographics

Someone posted link here a couple of days ago.

[awesomerwb1]

6. Let's "narrowly" beat that orange mfer

by 10 points.

JFC

[JohnSJ]

7. Yes that isn't a narrow lead, but how would they know? Those states

do not announce the results until after the polls close?

I don’t trust the polls or their sampling

[ColinC]

29. They ask people who already voted how they voted

[JohnSJ]

30. Thanks. I hope that is valid and they are being honest.

[littlemissmartypants]

10. NC voter registration statistics from the NCSBE

Of note: Unaffiliated voters make up the largest group followed by the Democratic group and then Republicans.

Voter Registration Statistics

Reporting Period: 10/26/2024 which is the most recent available data.

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F26%2F2024

Constitution: 463
Democratic: 2,437,503
Green: 3,533
Justice for All: 448
Libertarian: 49,735
No Labels: 24,513
Republican: 2,327,013
Unaffiliated: 2,948,570
We the People: 1,263
White: 4,980,453
Black: 1,535,702
American Indian/Alaska Native: 56,855
Asian: 135,344
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander: 985
Multiracial: 39,965
Other: 309,660
Undesignated: 734,077
Hispanic: 323,678
Male: 3,272,542
Female: 3,840,530
Total: 7,793,041

❤️

[mwooldri]

14. A lot of those "unaffiliated voters" are lined with a party.

This unaffiliated voters is a Democrat in disguise. It's so that I can cross over and ratfuck the Republican primary if needs be.

[WSHazel]

13. One qualifier

Stuart Stevens, among others, do not like extrapolating early voter data. I think he was right for his day, but many more people vote early than 20 years ago, so the early voter universe should behave more statistically consistent with the overall voter population. I also understand the argument that 2020 is a bad proxy for this year, because the 2020 early vote was so heavily weighted Democrat, so it was clear that Biden was pulling votes forward with the early vote and Trump still had a lot of votes left to get.

This year the early vote has a slight Republican lean, which means that Harris still has a lot of votes left to get, and Trump is going to start running out of runway. Many of the polls are treating the 2024 early vote just like the 2020 early vote, even though their composition is entirely different.

[moniss]

17. CNN with a characterization of

events that would make Pravda blush.

[hvn_nbr_2]

22. I've been calling the MSM "Plutocracy Pravda" and "CorpoPravda" for years. nt

[jvill]

18. PEOPLE: That lead IS NARROW. Why? Because more Dems than Repubs vote early. Potentially a lot more.

We don’t know for sure because there is no baseline to

[WSHazel]

19. More REPUBS have voted early in both NC and GA

Actually, Republicans are outvoting Democrats in the early vote in AZ, NC, GA and NV this year. Democrats have modest leads by party ID in WI and MI early vote. Democrats have a big lead by Party ID in PA, but the early vote will probably not be a huge factor in that race, likely around 25-30% of the total vote.

Despite more Republicans than Democrats having voted in NC and GA, early exits are showing Harris with a sizable lead. A lot can change between now and election day, but this is a very promising development.

[Strelnikov_]

21. It's a wide narrow.

(Unbelievable)

[TygrBright]

23. "...narrowly by a 7% margin"? WTAF, can the gotta-keep-the-horserace-in-play get any stupider? n/t

[WinstonSmith4740]

24. Only in American MSM...

Seriously, CNN? Can you be any more obvious? These are not "narrow" leads. I'll be willing to bet if the Rethugs were leading by that much, it would be reported as an "insurmountable lead", and that Harris should just pack it up.

[Demsrule86]

25. CNN is so fucking partisan for f'ing GOP assholes, it is disgusting...

6 and 7 is not close. It is breaking Kamala Harris's favor. Now we are seeing a point where they can't really hide it. And some will knock it off to save their reputation when the blue wave hits. Lebron just endorsed Kamala Harris!

[Bev54]

27. I heard first thing this am, on MSNBC

Ana Cabrerra (spelling?) that Harris was winning by 8% and I did not hear what state, wasn’t reallly listening well. What I did hear her say was that 8% was still within the margin of error. Since when is 8% within the margin of error? WTF are they even talking about, that is a real stretch to keep the horse race alive.

[Polybius]

36. I think they mean narrow for early voting

In 2020, Democrats had a 20 point lead in early voting, then on Election Day Republicans all came out to vote.