K-shaped economy and inflation boost Black Friday sales by 4.1% from last year, online spending jumps 9.1%

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNN Business

PUBLISHED Nov 29, 2025, 4:32 PM ET


US retail sales on Black Friday, the busiest shopping day of the year, climbed 4.1% compared with last year, according to data released Saturday by Mastercard SpendingPulse. Online shoppers alone spent $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from 2024, according to data collection platform Adobe Analytics.

But those gains don’t account for higher prices due to inflation, so actual spending could be flat. “We have 3% inflation, so maybe (the 4.1% increase in spending) is a real increase of just 1% or so, which is not that much of an increase,” Rick Newman, who writes The Pinpoint Press, a newsletter on the US economy, told CNN on Friday.

There’s also a bifurcation in who’s spending. The Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, a collection of anecdotes about the economy, showed consumer spending among low- and middle-income consumers is on the decline. Meanwhile, the Fed found high-end consumers are continuing to spend — including on luxury items and travel.

Consumers have bought fewer items this holiday season, but the average selling prices are higher, according to Claudia Lombana, a national consumer expert. “The ones that have higher income are spending at will, but those who are less affluent are budgeting,” Lombana told CNN’s Omar Jimenez on Saturday.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/29/business/black-friday-us-econony-spending

[Lovie777]

1. So basically no increase....

[popsdenver]

15. Not only no increase

but actually quite a DECREASE considering the inflation in just this past 12 months, especially when you throw in ShrinkFlation...........

[Polybius]

23. Incorrect

The overall inflation increase over the past 12 months is 3%, so 4.1% it's still a small increase of 1.1%.

The most recent U.S. inflation rate for the 12 months ending in September 2025 was 3.0%. Inflation for food was 3.1% over the same period, while energy costs saw a slight decline of -0.4%. Some categories with significant price increases include energy services (6.4%), tobacco (6.9%), and natural gas (11.7%).
U.S. inflation by category (September 2025)
All items: 3.0%
Food: 3.1%
Food at home: 2.7%
Food away from home: 3.7%
Energy: -0.4%
Energy services: 6.4%
Energy commodities: -0.4%
Shelter: 3.6%
Rent of primary residence: 3.4%
Owners' equivalent rent: 3.8%
Other notable categories:
Tobacco and smoking products: 6.9%
Motor vehicle maintenance and repair: 7.7%
Natural gas (piped): 11.7%
Used cars and trucks: 5.1%
Airline fare: 3.2%
Medical care services: 3.9%

[Progressive dog]

25. I believe you are correct

and that Black Friday sales are slanted more toward imports. These sales should only be price compared to previous Black Fridays.

[Polybius]

22. I remember being a young man when I first got into stocks

I was complaining that my portfolio barely made an increase. An experienced trader put his arm around me and said something like "Never complain when your stocks are in the green, no matter how small the gain. Only complain if they are in the red."

[Deminpenn]

2. Was out and about the past couple of days

Was surprised the local WalMart parking lot wasn't packed either day. Asked one of the workers who told me there was a line of 4 or 5 dozen people waiting for the doors to open on Friday, but then it petered out. There were shoppers on both days when I went, but the store wasn't packed. Later went to the local mall and the same thing, there were shoppers, but not the kind of crowds one normally expects on the days after Thanksgiving. Aldi was about the same, but I noticed they'd aleady sold a good chunk of their seasonal xmas items.

[Lonestarblue]

3. And how much has credit card debt increased since Trump raised prices on most items with his tariffs?

“Credit card debt reaches $1.21 trillion — in line with last year’s all-time high, NY Fed finds”. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/ny-fed-credit-card-debt-second-quarter-2025.html

At what point will we see people lose their homes and cars because they can’t afford to live on their earnings. The US economy feels like it’s now built on a shaky house of cards created by Trump and his Republican sycophants.

[Vinca]

4. Some people add too much debt to their load over the holidays. People need to think twice about purchases.

[Gimpyknee]

5. Only 1 in 5 Americans are debt free.

[OldBaldy1701E]

7. By design. (n/t)

[Vinca]

11. I try to be, only putting a small amount on the credit card every so often and then paying it off quickly.

I think people wonder why I don't buy a new car every so often, but the 2012 Rav4 runs fine and has relatively low mileage. It's been paid off for years.

[Hotler]

6. I tried the spending boycott thingy. I gave up. It was just too hard not to spend my money.

I'm still spending as if Biden is still in office. I
The spending this holiday season should be the lowest on record. It could be. All it takes is participation.

[OldBaldy1701E]

8. The rich are desperate to make things look like they are great.

So, they are out spending money to make sure their Dear Leader's economy looks good.

I hope they all go bankrupt doing that.

Also, that orange gibbon and his hooting cohorts are not responsible for this bias in our economy. That has been going on for some time. They are just the current cheerleaders.

[Bluestocking]

9. It may be a hundred years later but history is about to repeat itself

[Deminpenn]

18. Yes, it is

nt

[modrepub]

10. Matches What I Saw Yesterday In Philly

Big crowds, not actually buying a lot of stuff from the stands but putting their kids on the rides (+5$ per ride) and the food venders were busy (not much below $10).

I'd say this is a good start to the Holiday season. But, I've been around long enough to know, purchases can dry up as the season progresses and bad weather in the right parts of the country can impact in-store sales. Uneven spending can also favor large retailers over small businesses. In other words, it's way too early to be crowing about how well things are going.

[RedWhiteBlueIsRacist]

12. Not surprised, as TV has been blaring non-stop Black Friday sales shit for weeks and weeks.

Even my European email outfit (Proton) was sending me Black Friday offers. WTF?

[BComplex]

13. Just my personal experience: I went to Walmart on (Black?) Friday in my little town

There were no more people there than you would find on any day. I hate going to Walmart...ever!....but that's the only place in an hour's drive that has some things that no other store in town has (small towns aren't known for a lot of variety), and I figured I see how "crazy" black friday was there. It was a total nothing burger.

But the media wants to pump up trump by saying spending was up? Was it the tariffs? Corporate greed thrown in?

[popsdenver]

14. I was a Corporate Executive in Retailing

50 years ago, before I saw Corporations for what they are....

Increases in Sales meant nothing to us because of inflation.......

And a few percent increase in sales, was frightening, when we looked at units sold.

And their 4.1, considering the gross amount of inflation this year, should frighten everyone greatly.
They have known this for months, and have already been having tons of pre Black Friday sales to try and get "theirs" while the getting is good.
They publish the 4.1, to make everyone think that people aren't cutting back or worried about the economy, and to try and fool the stock holders.........

It goes hand in hand with the Republicans, ENDING all reporting about Labor, Un-employment, etc etc etc which have skyrocketed the past few months...........

[twodogsbarking]

16. How much of the increase is the result of adding in tariffs to the price

while the money gets diverted to the government. Given there were no tariffs last year this should be taken into consideration before comparisons are made. If the tariffs are bringing in "billions & billions" this would skew any comparison except that we have no accurate reporting of tariffs that I know of.

[Bengus81]

17. Yawn...so what? People will put all of Christmas on plastic so they can have a Christmas

This time around though people are getting bent over by Trump and his tariffs--he's TAXING Christmas period.

That dipshit will think that people will keep spending like that in all of 2026,they won't.

[mdbl]

19. So much for the boycott.

They're really teaching these retailers a lesson!

And they wonder why prices never come down.

[iemanja]

20. I personally don't think the boycott made sense

If consumers had bought before or after Black Friday/Cyber Monday, they would only give retailers greater profits. They also boycotted small business Saturday.

[mdbl]

24. Maybe from the standpoint of the entire season

But if consumers don't start to exercise some power over retailers they are doomed to higher prices. AFAIC, a good percentage of our inflation rates over the last few years are just plain greed from opportunity to blame something.

[kimbutgar]

21. I am visiting my mother in law in Arizona

And today while my husband was watching the football game I went to a large outdoor shopping center in Surprise . There were a lot of people in the store looking for bargains and when I went to buy something, there were only 2 people ahead of me in line and when I went to another store same thing. Usually there are 10-15 people in line at these stores.

[Marthe48]

26. What is a K shaped economy?

I know what pear-shaped is, not K shaped.

I've decided to give cash or card presents. I will choose the price. My loved ones can decide when to spend them, and maybe find a way to wait out the tariff crap.

Anyway, if someone can explain K shaped economy, thanks.

[BumRushDaShow]

27. There's an explanation here (it can be applied to any 2 sectors of business) -

https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/the-k-shaped-economy-in-one-graph?post=541313



I.e.,

A K shaped economy describes a post-crisis recovery where different parts of the economy and society are performing at sharply diverging rates, forming the two arms of the letter “K.”:

The upper arm (going up): Sectors, companies, assets, and people that benefit from the recovery and, in many cases, are wealthier than before the pandemic. This includes investors in technology stocks, big tech companies, the luxury sectors, high-income professionals, and asset owners.

The lower arm (going down): Sectors, small businesses, and people that continue to decline or stagnate even as the overall economy appears to improve. Examples include: the hospitality and travel industries, many lower-priced retail outlets, low-wage service workers, small businesses, and many middle-class and lower-income households.

So the above graph is showing how the S&P 500 market is shooting up while the Consumer Sentiment is cratering.

[Marthe48]

28. Thank you!

I really didn't know, and the graph explains it perfectly

[BumRushDaShow]

29. Most welcome!