U.S. could owe businesses $168 billion if Supreme Court rules against Trump tariffs, analysis finds
Source: CBS News
Updated on: December 12, 2025 / 12:46 PM EST
The U.S. government could owe businesses as much as $168 billion if the Supreme Court rules that the Trump administration improperly invoked a federal emergency powers law earlier this year in hitting dozens of countries with new tariffs, according to a recent analysis.
Through December 5, the U.S. government has collected $259 billion in tariff revenue, the nonpartisan research initiative found. But a ruling by the high court that Mr. Trump unlawfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose the country-specific tariffs could force the government to offer refunds to importers, said Kent Smetters, a professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
In a November hearing on the case, the Supreme Court seemed divided over whether Mr. Trump had the legal authority to impose sweeping levies under IEEPA. Several justices appeared skeptical, noting that IEEPA does not mention the word "tariff" and that no president has ever relied on the act to justify broad-based tariffs on other nations.
The Trump administration could likely maintain similar tariff rates by drawing on other laws if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down, although those statutes have more restrictions, according to legal experts.
Read more: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tariff-refund-supreme-court-ruling/
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