More redistricting bad news for Republicans: Texas may not net five GOP seats like they planned

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNN Politics

PUBLISHED Dec 14, 2025, 7:00 AM ET


The Republican plans to pick off five Democratic-held congressional seats in Texas once seemed like a sure thing. Not anymore.

President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, particularly among Latinos, and strong Democratic performance in this year’s special elections have changed both parties’ assumptions. Now, the cushion the Texas GOP drew into its new map – Trump won every Republican-favored district by 10 points or more a year ago – seems like it might be too small.

Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five US House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance at that level next year would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column, though it’s unlikely that performance will be replicated in every district around the country, and recent polling suggests that Democrats currently have a more modest national advantage.

“I can feel it on the ground,” said Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, whose South Texas district was one of the five targeted by Republicans. “I really anticipate us taking the majority back next cycle and winning back South Texas and places that had been traditional Democratic districts that have turned on us in the last few cycles, with so many disillusioned people.”

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/14/politics/texas-redistricting-gop-latinos

[Lovie777]

1. Besides other fucked up things Texas is forcing upon Texans.............

Kirk fan club in every public school? Keep hate alive.

[travelingthrulife]

10. Teaching them how to cheat at politics.

[Trumpdumper]

2. The Indiana Lesson

The possible Texas scenario is precisely why the Indiana Republicans refused to redistrict. With the proposed new district lines, what was in theory a 9-0 romp next year for the Indiana congressional delegation might have been 6-3 in a blue wave. But keeping seven of the seats solidly GOP raises the odds that they can hold their own in '26. It was self-preservation on their part -- there was nothing especially "fair" about it. The Texans stupidly shot first before taking a more careful aim.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Plus

TX is a "majority-minority" state like CA and some of those "minorities" (Hispanics), who have been there for generations, are finally waking up to the danger posed by the ones they supported, who in an instant, have no longer considered them as "worthy" or "assimilated".

IOW, they are no longer "White Hispanic" but are "Brown Hispanic".

[paleotn]

4. Repukes aren't really good at anything but mindless ideology and stupid slogans it seems.

Well, most of them anyway. By diluting Blue votes, they're making once safe red districts less safe. Sometimes a lot less safe. Not terribly smart in a potential wave election.

It's relatively simple math. A function of divvying up potential red and blue votes AND how many normally red votes vs. blue votes a state has to divvy up. This only works in states that are highly red and not already gerrymandered to the hilt, which there aren't any. Tennessee, an extraordinarily red state that's already highly gerrymandered, could in theory redistrict Steve Cohen, their only Dem congress person, out of TN-9 and create a completely red delegation. But that's only one seat. So what?

In states that are red but more competitive, say Texas and Indiana, this could spell disaster. In those states, that same math makes once safe red districts much less safe compared to Tennessee. From R+ teens and twenties to perhaps R+ single digits and low teens. There's just too many blue votes to attempt to dilute. And the blue areas of Texas, the big cities, are the only places that grow election cycle to election cycle. It sure as shit ain't pan handle or the hill country.

Factor in the soft middle breaking blue in a wave election and Republicans could still end up with what they spent all this time and effort to avoid. Perhaps not getting walloped but still getting beat soundly. In California, the opposite of Tennessee in % of blue vs. red votes but vastly bigger, same math. There's fewer red votes percentage wise to dilute than Texas blue votes, making the task easier for CA Dems. California could pull it off with far less risk than Texas.

[DownriverDem]

5. Does anyone know

what reason MAGA repubs give for redistricting? I never see their reason why.

[moose65]

6. You don't?

To me, they’re rather blatant about it. They are saying out loud that they’re doing it so Republicans won’t lose their House majority, and to make Trump happy.

[MichMan]

11. Population changes since 2020 is what I heard was the claim

[Mustellus]

7. And I gave up my R+10 district...

.. to run in an R+6 district (diluted by some D's... )? There's a D+15 election coming!!!!

[flashman13]

8. Rick Wilson talked about this yesterday on his By the Numbers podcast. He and his guests made the point that

the Repugs rejiggered the new district boundaries specifically to make use of what they thought were new repeat Latino voters. If those Latinos decide to vote D, which they probably will, the Rs are screwed. Very possibly they actually created reliable Democratic districts. Wilson thought that if they had to do it over again now those new districts would be significantly different. Too bad! So sad!

[Midnight Writer]

9. Republicans always go for the "gimmick" fix. Instead of putting in the work, they look for magical shortcuts.

That is why they are so susceptible to con artists like Trump and the rest of this Administration. Team Trump has no problem selling magic beans to rubes.

It is like a person with heart issues deciding that, instead of taking the doctor's advice to diet and exercise, they'll just take that "miracle cure" supplement they saw on YouTube.

So they will continue to pray away the gay, blame their economic woes on the poorest among us, and put their trust in drug-addled visionary billionaires.

[Javaman]

12. I would love to see dems win nationally across the board, but suffering here in Texas under a psychopath

I would love to see dems take back the texas house.