Trump immigration policies and a lower fertility rate slow US growth projection, budget office says

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: AP

Updated 8:42 PM EST, January 7, 2026


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. population is projected to grow by 15 million people in 30 years, a smaller estimate than in previous years, due to President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration policies and an expected lower fertility rate, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.

The nonpartisan budget office projected that the U.S. population will grow from 349 million people this year to 364 million people in 30 years, a 2.2% smaller gain than it had predicted in 2025. In September, the office issued a revised demographics report that showed Trump’s plans for mass deportations and other strict immigration measures would result in roughly 320,000 people removed from the United States over the next 10 years.

The country’s total population is projected to stop growing in 2056 and remain roughly the same size as in the previous year, the CBO said. But without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030 as deaths start to exceed births, making immigrants an increasingly important source of population growth, according to the report.

Even if the limits on immigration and increased deportations end with the Trump administration in three years, “it’s still a demographic shock,” said William Frey, a demographer at the centrist Brookings Institution.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/immigration-trump-census-population-growth-baby-boomers-7470b270a004ae779518722488de58d4

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Link to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) site - https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879

Link to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) REPORT (PDF) - https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-01/61879-Demographic-Outlook.pdf

[gab13by13]

1. Everything is going according to plan

AI will fill in the gaps.

[ChicagoTeamster]

3. That's why Heritage is currently pushing pro marriage anti porn programs and marriage bootcamps

They think young people are choosing porn over marriage and kids. They're not.

They see how hard it is to get an education and then get started in a career after being saddled with debt plus the jobs ' salaries and medical plans cover less and they're bringing kids into a world where climate change will be excessively worse and their kids may wind up freezing to death in the dark in their old age or maybe dying in a flood or region wide inferno.

Now that they've criminalized abortion and have started prosecuting women for fetus deaths girls and younger women are having tubal ligations and young men are having vasectomies. They don't want to be forced to bring children into this world. Maybe if the options of birth control and abortion weren't being taken away from them they wouldn't be seeking such extreme and irreversible solutions to escape control over their lives.

Also, church membership dropped off considerably among Millenials and GenZ. That was part of Turning Point's mission was to recruit young Christian Nationalists. Now their Turning Point voters are rejecting Ramaswamy and Vance for racist reasons.

Every action has multiple reactions and some of them work against the original goal. Conservatives (so called) never acknowledge these obvious forces. They don't understand that no one ever has total control even though they think they do.

[IbogaProject]

2. Our house of cards financial system requires growth

Our whole economic system is predicated on continous growth.

[Miguelito Loveless]

4. Latest research show

microplastics lead to lower sperms count, but the oil industry will never allow any regulation of plastic.

[wolfie001]

5. Trying to start a family now with tRUMP's policies driving up costs into the stratosphere?

Zero help from the government. Good luck with that shit.

[NickB79]

6. All the population projections have been wrong lately. This one will be as well

Nations are seeing birthrates fall far faster than expected even 5 years ago. Japan, South Korea, most of Europe, even China. The US would also be falling if it weren't for immigration, both legal and illegal. American citizens aren't having enough children to maintain our population any longer.

I would be SHOCKED if the US population is able to maintain it's current level 30 years from now. The only thing that would give us a population boost would be if we started allowing in millions of climate refugees from Central America, and the GOP is working overtime to prevent that from happening.