December core consumer prices rose at a 2.6% annual rate, less than expected

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Tue, Jan 13 2026 8:31 AM EST Updated 6 Min Ago


Core U.S. consumer prices rose less than predicted in December, reinforcing hopes that inflation is tempering as the Federal Reserve contemplates its next move on interest rates.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the consumer price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% gain on a monthly basis and 2.6% annually, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Both were 0.1 percentage point below expectations.

Though they look at both measures, Fed officials consider core inflation a better long-run gauge of where inflation is heading.

On a headline basis, the CPI posted an increase of 0.3% for the month, putting the all-items annual rate at 2.7%. Both were exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.



Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/13/cpi-inflation-report-december-2026.html

---

From the source -

Link to tweet

BLS-Labor Statistics
@BLS_gov
·
Follow
CPI for all items rises 0.3% in December; shelter and food up #BLSData https://bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01132026.htm
8:30 AM · Jan 13, 2026

Article updated.

Previous articles/headline -

Published Tue, Jan 13 2026 8:31 AM EST Updated 2 Min Ago


Core U.S. consumer prices rose less than predicted in December, reinforcing hopes that inflation is tempering as the Federal Reserve contemplates its next move on interest rates.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the consumer price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% gain on a monthly basis and 2.6% annually, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Both were 0.1 percentage point below expectations. Though they look at both measures, Fed officials consider core inflation a better long-run gauge of where inflation is heading.

On a headline basis, the CPI posted an increase of 0.3% for the month, putting the all-items annual rate at 2.7%. Both were exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

The Fed targets inflation at 2% annually, so the report provides some evidence that the pace of prices increases is moving back to target but remains elevated.

Published Tue, Jan 13 2026 8:31 AM EST Updated 2 Min Ago


Core U.S. consumer prices rose less than predicted in December, reinforcing hopes that inflation is tempering as the Federal Reserve contemplates its next move on interest rates.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of the costs for goods and services across the sprawling U.S. economy, posted an increase of 0.3% for the month, putting the headline all-items annual rate at 2.7%. Both were exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

At the same time, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 0.2% gain on a monthly basis and 2.6% annually. Both were 0.1 percentage point below expectations.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Original article/headline (apparent correction? - headline was changed to report "Core" vs "Headline" ) -

December consumer prices rose at a 2.7% annual rate, as expected

Published Tue, Jan 13 2026 8:31 AM EST


The consumer price index in December was expected to show a 2.7% increase from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.


This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

[NoMoreRepugs]

1. Appreciate you posting the "official government numbers."

My question to DUer’s out there. Is anyone’s $150 cart of groceries from a year ago a $154.05 today? Your $1800 rent only go up to 1846.50? Same for your health and car insurance? Meal out at a decent restaurant?


This administration has lied about EVERYTHING every single day - rant over, shuffling back to my office now.

[popsdenver]

11. Exactly

it all started back in the Reagan years when inflation was astronomical. So, HB just changed all the criteria they used to obtain the figures.........The CPI figures are a joke........

He also screwed with the un-employment figures and how they were figured.

Now Trump's CABAL, doesn't even bother reporting the figures.......same as they did during Covid when the biggest Red States, weren't counting the Covid Deaths to help Trump out.....

The current reality is as topsy turvy as that found in Alice in Wonderland.......

[CanonRay]

2. Based on what, exactly?

Trump numbers?

[Ritabert]

3. I trust no statistics coming from this gang.

[progree]

4. Probability of a rate cut at the January 28 FED FOMC meeting, per CME's Fed Watch tool

Last edited Tue Jan 13, 2026, 11:41 AM - Edit history (1)

Fed Watch Tool: probability of a rate cut at their January 28 meeting:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

12/12: 24.4%,
1/06: 17.7%,
1/12: 4.4%,
1/13: 5.0% (@ 8:31 am CT, one hour after the report release)
. . . 2.8% (@ 10:21 am CT) < -- ETA

I thought today's report would move the dial more than that. I suppose the KK! Brigade's explanation is that traders know the numbers are cooked, so they are essentially ignoring today's report (Krasnov Krasnov! Brigade).
ETA - well, it's moved now, but in the opposite direction from what one would expect from a tamer-than-expected inflation report. With the job market being bad, reducing rates is traditionally the way to help with that. And a tamer-than-expected inflation report reduces the probability that a small rate cut will raise inflation (even though on a year-over-year basis it's still above 2% (2.7% for headline number, 2.6% for core).

The rolling 3 month average is (just taking the numbers from their tables when I select for 3 month average, and multiplying by 4 to annualize, so is kinda crude and one-digit accuracy):

CPI: 0.5% over 3 months, annualizes to 2.0%
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Choose the "More Formatting Options" link on the upper right
On the page that shows up, check the "3-Month Percent Change" checkbox
Click the "Retrieve Data" button

Core CPI: 0.4% over 3 months, annualizes to 1.6%
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

S&P 500 futures down 0.11% (so essentially no detectable reaction above the usual noise)
ETA - S&P 500 down 0.19% at 10:33 AM CT

(from my original post) "Oil hits $65 as geopolitical risks swirl from Iran to Black Sea" -- a headline I saw with a 40 minutes ago time stamp (it closed yesterday at $60.65, it has been in the high 50's in the days before that)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-edges-higher-trump-vows-060208473.html

[Happy Hoosier]

5. you know how they got there? They assumed ZERO inflation for October

They were missing October data because of the shutdown. So what did they do? Did they assume no chage to inflation? Nope. They assumed no change in PRICES.

In other words, it's BULLSHIT.

[Wiz Imp]

7. Not completely accurate.

First of all, they did not have data for most categories for October, but they did have data for some categories, so it wasn't completely "imputed". Second, they had to do something to estimate October data. This explanation published by BLS explains why they used the "carry-forward" method. It was really their best option. They admit that it probably results in an underestimation. Unfortunately, the media has mostly ignored BLS' explanations of the weaknesses of the data.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi.htm

6. Why did BLS choose carry-forward imputation?
BLS used the carry-forward method to impute data. BLS viewed retroactively collecting data for October as both costly and potentially inaccurate, especially since the CPI surveys are not based on respondent recall. For rents in particular, BLS collects data for an entirely different sample each month. BLS does not have data collection resources to collect 2 months of data in 2 weeks. Extending data collection for the October reference month through the end of November would have further delayed processing and release of November indexes and releases for subsequent months. In keeping with its mission, BLS publishes estimates as quickly as possible after the reference month. By using known and documented statistical methods, BLS was able to release November indexes within 10 days of the originally planned release date and is on schedule to release December data on the original timeline of January 13, 2026.

For October 2025, BLS used the existing, documented imputation algorithm in calculating the CPI. BLS did not deviate from existing, adopted methodology as described in the BLS Handbook of Methods for the CPI. Imputation is a hierarchical process for both uncollected prices in the Commodities and Services Pricing Survey and uncollected rents in the Housing Survey.

The imputation process first attempts to estimate a missing price or rent from the price change movements of ‘like-kind’ items observed in the current month. This is key, as the CPI measurement objective is to observe (or impute) prices as transacted strictly in the current month, not to look at past trends or to a forecast of future behavior. Only when there are no ‘like-kind’ items in the imputation source pool does the algorithm resolve to a carry-forward impute; that is, to proxy the unobserved price or rent as its last known collected price or rent. In October 2025, since all survey data went uncollected, the ‘like-kind’ imputation methods could not execute, so imputation resolved to the carry-forward method for all survey samples, including rent.

There are several reasons for using carry-forward rather than an alternative method such as a trend-adjusted naïve forecast, an interpolation method, or any other time-series or cross-sectional econometric model. First, BLS did not want to intervene and superimpose last minute, unvetted judgment into the process, as this could have been perceived as manipulating the data unscientifically. Second, BLS information technology was built and rigorously tested for the hierarchical imputation algorithm. Logistically, even if there were consensus agreement on an alternative imputation-of-last-resort method, BLS could not have written requirements, modified the systems, tested, and certified the changes in a timely fashion; that would have further delayed the release of the November 2025 CPI and subsequent releases considerably. Third, vetting a proposed alternative imputation method and gaining endorsement would take considerable time. A methodological change of that magnitude would require publication in the Federal Register and a public comment period prior to adoption.

Carry-forward imputation has specific effects depending on market conditions:

-In periods of general price increases, the carry-forward method may result in an underestimation.
-In periods of general price decreases, it may result in an overestimation.
-When most prices are not changing and some are rising and some are falling, the method reflects the majority behavior for uncollected items.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

6. I do not trust trump's numbers

[Javaman]

8. which means it's actually much worse. nt

[Rebl2]

9. I don't trust

anything that they say.

[lastlib]

10. These are tRump-regime figures, right?

So take them with a block of salt---or an entire salt mine.

'Cuz my grocery and utility bills say something TOTALLY different.