Retail sales rise 0.6% in February, but impact of Iran war threatens to derail spending

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: ABC News/AP

April 1, 2026, 8:43 AM


NEW YORK -- Shoppers increased their spending in February, particularly on cars and clothing, after pulling back at the start of the year due to severe winter storms.

Retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.6% in February, from a revised 0.1% decline in January, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

But there's concern that the Iran war, which is sending gasoline prices soaring and whose impact wasn't reflected in the retail sales data, could derail spending at a time when Americans have already been squeezed by years of elevated inflation.

Gas sped past an average of $4 a gallon on Tuesday for the first time since 2022 and jumped another 4 cents overnight. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline hit $4.06 Wednesday. That was a dollar more per gallon before the war.

Read more: https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/retail-sales-rise-06-february-impact-iran-war-131611815

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From the source -

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U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2026 were $738.4 billion, up 0.6% from January 2026.

🛍️ https://census.gov/retail/sales.html

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9:05 AM · Apr 1, 2026

[progree]

1. These are NOT adjusted for price increases. For the 2-month period Jan thru Feb, sales only matched inflation....

Important note: these aren't inflation-adjusted. Although a 0.6% gain in February beats February's inflation rate, the 0.25%/month average of January and February combined doesn't (it matches inflation). Which means people actually bought the same amount of goods and services in this 2-month period (and on a per-capita basis bought less). The price increases give the illusion that they bought more. They didn't. The media won't tell you this.

CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

Important note #2 - the above is for February (and January). The attack on Iran began February 28, so Iran wasn't a factor in retail sales.