North Korea delays access to Kaesong industrial zone

[nadinbrzezinski]

Last edited Wed Apr 3, 2013, 12:34 AM - Edit history (4)

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - North Korea stepped up pressure on Seoul by delaying access to a joint industrial park in a move that could trap hundreds of South Korean workers on the northern side of the world's most militarized border.

It was not immediately clear if the move was aimed at closing the Kaesong Industrial zone, which generates $2 billion a year in trade for the impoverished North and $80 million in cash wages that go straight to its government. North Korean delays to accessing the zone are very rare.

The delay came after Pyongyang said it would restart a nuclear reactor that it uses to produce plutonium for its nuclear weapons program and as Washington deployed military resources in South Korea amid growing tensions with the North.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/03/us-korea-north-complex-idUSBRE93200F20130403

---

This has further escalation and possibly hostage situation written all over it

Ok, more now via BBC

North Korea blocks South workers from Kaesong industrial zone

The Kaesong industrial zone is a symbol of inter-Korean co-operation

North Korea is blocking the entry of South Korean workers into a joint industrial zone, in a move seen as further escalating tensions.

Workers were being allowed to leave the Kaesong complex but not cross into it from the South, Seoul's Unification Ministry confirmed.

The Kaesong zone, which is a money-maker for the North, is seen as a key barometer of inter-Korean relations.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22011207

More fun


DPRK 'almost ready' to deploy ICBM?
By Sam Roggeveen - 3 April 2013 2:21PM

Yesterday on Radio National, Foreign Minister Bob Carr said the following about North Korea:

In terms of military intelligence, it appears the country is almost ready to deploy an intercontinental ballistic missile with a capacity of reaching the United States.

I contacted Jeffrey Lewis, founding editor of the influential Arms Control Wonk blog and Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Washington, DC for his take on that statement. Here's Lewis' response, in full:

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2013/04/03/North-Korea-almost-ready-to-deploy-ICBM.aspx

[Kablooie]

1. I would expect this delay to be temporary.

They seem to be a lot on bluster but zilch on action.

My guess is that it's a kind of warning that they will take hostages if anyone interferes with their plans.
A stupid warning, of course.

The article says the South Korea has contingency plans if the North tries to take hostages but the plans are secret.
I wonder what they are?

[Malik Agar]

2. Pray for peace; prepare for war

Why can't people just get along...

[Kablooie]

3. Because some of them are insane.

[joshcryer]

5. Depends. The complex makes up 5-10% of NK's GDP.

South Korea doesn't need it, it employees a lot of South Koreans but doesn't contribute significantly to South Korea's GDP.

So I don't understand why they're doing this. I feel as if something is happening within NK's inner circles. Some shakeup of sorts. Perhaps the military is posturing for power or something.

[killbotfactory]

4. What is our game plan for North Korea?

Analysts have been on the news saying we shouldn't worry until Kaesong is shut down. That's probably why they're threatening to do so, in order to give more weight to their rhetoric.

We've given them nothing to lose by furthering their nuclear capability. Bush's pre-emptive strikes against the "axis of evil" policy has pretty much cemented the idea in both Iran and North Korea that we could decide to strike them regardless of their behavior if the US government feels like it, so of course they are going to try and develop nukes. If NK develops nuclear tech, they can reduce the amount of conventional weapons they have on stand-by, and save money for economic development or helping to withstand stricter sanctions.

Why would we want to starve out a fanatical hierarchical militarized regime? If their government destabilizes, what would stop them from doing something stupid with the military power they control, let alone the nuclear bombs, and other WMD they have?

What is the purpose of demanding six-party talks when they want two-party talks? What do we lose by talking directly with them, instead of demanding six-party talks? Surely we can negotiate in the background with the other parties involved?

It seems like we are incapable of dealing with each other in good faith.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Answers

Analysts have been on the news saying we shouldn't worry until Kaesong is shut down. That's probably why they're threatening to do so, in order to give more weight to their rhetoric.

That is why it is considered a red line for most experts.

We've given them nothing to lose by furthering their nuclear capability. Bush's pre-emptive strikes against the "axis of evil" policy has pretty much cemented the idea in both Iran and North Korea that we could decide to strike them regardless of their behavior if the US government feels like it, so of course they are going to try and develop nukes.

In this you are correct.

If NK develops nuclear tech, they can reduce the amount of conventional weapons they have on stand-by, and save money for economic development or helping to withstand stricter sanctions.

Read into the military first policy for North Korea.

Why would we want to starve out a fanatical hierarchical militarized regime? If their government destabilizes, what would stop them from doing something stupid with the military power they control, let alone the nuclear bombs, and other WMD they have?

What other choice do you have with an Orwellian state? Not a joke either.

What is the purpose of demanding six-party talks when they want two-party talks? What do we lose by talking directly with them, instead of demanding six-party talks? Surely we can negotiate in the background with the other parties involved?

The US has tried, with the rest of the world.

It seems like we are incapable of dealing with each other in good faith.

I am glad you are not in charge, FYI.

[killbotfactory]

14. The Bush administration seems like the biggest blunder, IMO

Bush came into office with a negative view of the Agreed Framework negotiated under Clinton. Reading a timeline on wiki, it really seems like the Bush admin and GOP were determined to undermine that agreement.

For example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreed_Framework#Implementation_of_the_agreement and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_North_Korea_nuclear_program#Phase_III

That's what I mean by not being able to deal with them in good faith. They are duplicitous, decietful and provocative, so we don't trust them. This has resulted in us halting any deals until our suspicious proven false, causing us to provoke them in return. Which cause NK to back out of any deals. We can't deal with them.

If I was in charge, I would talk to them. What's the worst that can happen, telling them diplomatically to fuck off until they get serious? I think it's counterproductive to withhold diplomacy until ultimatums are met.

"What other choice do you have with an Orwellian state? Not a joke either."

If our concern is their totalitarian "military first" style government, it seems that puting them in a financially desperate position where they feel threatened constantly would result in more of what we have seen. Ordinary civilians get the shit end of the stick and become malnourished, favored citizens get protected from the worst of any shortages, prisoners starve to death, the government cracks down as hard as it can on anyone suspected of being opposed to the current order. A horribly oppressive government becomes more oppressive and horrible. If the regime does collapse, it might very well go down fighting, which would be unthinkable. NK as a nation was born in the aftermath of a horrific war, why are we surprised that from the ashes of that war rose a demon?

The best option would be to encourage reforms like those that have occurred in China over the past decades. For a long time they weren't much different than North Korea was today. Status quo plus incremental changes for the better seems like a more preferable option than status quo, leading to humanitarian crisis, leading to regime collapse plus further humanitarian shitstom.

Is it that we are worried that if that any economic successes will allow them to build up their military and invade the south? Or that they will hold the region hostage with the threat of nuclear Armageddon for cash? If sanctions were eased and their economy started to be rebuilt, making them more reliant on trading partners in the region, it would seem unlikely for them to pursue that course.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. Yes, the Bush administration blundered

As to the rest, all aid, and I mean all aid, has been funneled to the military first policy.

So yup, keeping the region hostage and throwing increasing criss to get aid to funnel to the military first policy is what they seem to want.

Look, really want a look into an Orwellian state? Google for the DPRK official news agency. Send an hour there.

Trust me, some of this will be clear. Oh and the 1990s called, they'd love their code back.

[killbotfactory]

20. I've studied NK for a while, mostly out of morbid curiosity...

But also because the popular narrative of "Dude, they're all crazy and the lil dude is a bratty douche! Let 'em try to attack us, we'll fuck 'em up, bro! Our war penis is like ten times bigger than theirs, lol" didn't accurately describe their behavior as a nation or the situation.

I'm well aware of their state. I am also aware that they once didn't funnel all of their economy into the military, and they've been in an economically desperate position since the fall of the USSR, their crumby economic systems inability to deal with it, which culminated with multiple natural disasters in the mid-90's. Our sanctions before and since probably haven't helped. Of course they would funnel money to the military, it's what they believe is preventing us from invading them when they have been significantly weakened as a nation for the past two decades.

I'm still not sure what the game plan is other than:

1. ruin north korea economically in futile hope regime collapses
2. ???
3. Peace

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. The end game seems to be some version of containment

And if we were rushing to war, the creation of consent would be in full force. It's not.

Yes, we got news on the net and papers, but I don't think I am crazy when I say our news tv media is mostly ignoring this.

To be frank, the United States cannot afford another hot war.

[John2]

31. What do you mean they

can't afford more Wars? All they have to do is convince people in this country North Korea is too dangerous. I thought Iran was the target in another year? And how about the Taliban in Afghanistan and Assad. Just keep pumping out those dollars and give excuses why other programs need to be cut. I'm too old for this crap. Since everyone wants to beat their chests, proceed to build your nukes and rachet up while I enjoy my last days living. Everybody thinks they are superman. Just remember more veterans to take care of. And are the plans from one of Obama's top generals for sending American troops into Africa still on the table? Kerry now says the U.S. will not accept North Korea as a nuclear state, as if they don't have them already. Let's think about another situation also while the U.S. calls this guy crazy. They have the largest supply of chemical weapons in the entire world. So if he is as crazy and suicidal as the U.S. and her allies claims, he will probably not hesitate one bit to use them. North Korea has not signed any treaty not to do so either. I think all the chest beating is stupid period.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. Well, the US TV media is almost silent

About a pretty serious crisis.

If hostilities resume right this moment, most Americans will be taken by surprise. By the by, the first question is, where is Korea?

Compare and contrast to the drumbeat and scary music on oh CNN 24/7 for months on end before h Gulf War One and two

[killbotfactory]

42. We've caged a beast, and it's trying to escape.

We seem intent on not responding to these provocations in any productive or meaningful way, because it would "reward" their behavior. Time will tell if it's a miscalculation. NK is probably going to push this as far as they can for their own reasons, let's hope it doesn't lead to war.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

6. More threats emerging...

#DPRK Central Broadcasting Station: Flight of USAF F-22's into #ROK a reckless act that will have "tremendous consequences."

@W7VOA on Twitter has the most informed and up-to-date news. Live-tweeting as he gets information.

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Yup I got it on

[Kablooie]

11. More scary words.

This sort of over the top fear mongering is not unusual for NK.
The big question is, are they just bloviating for some internal power game or are they building up to something real?

The fact that they are suddenly so actively belligerent does suggest that something has changed inside but unless they've gone completely insane I can't believe they would actually make a violent move. What would they have to gain?

China is supposedly an ally but if they attack SK with no provocation would China back them up?
China would have nothing to gain and lots to lose.

[joshcryer]

9. Unification Ministry spokesman said they're being allowed to leave.

@KyungLahCNN

More from ministry:
"We are prioritizing the safety of our people"
"South Koreans who are in Kaesong will be exiting Kaesong." #CNN

So this was probably to induce panic, especially knowing how the western media wants to report things out of proportion.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. Western media...you know what is on my tv?

The Lawrence O'Donnell show...not a peep of any of this. CNN, ditto

In fact, American TV has been down right unremarkable and inwards looking, to the point that if the DPRK launches a thing, anything, and that restarts hostilities, this will come as a great surprise to the average...even news watching, American.

No serious, coverage has been next to non existent.

I learned from my BIL that the battle group I knew was near Korea...is there, thanks to Mexican media...you'd think the US media would cover this more, given the division of troops at Camp Casey and the direct line of fire...alas they are not

[Kablooie]

12. If they were really planning an attack ...

wouldn't they try to do it suddenly instead of broadcasting all this attention getting nonsense ahead of time?

It has to be something to do with internal political power, not really about engaging hostilities with outside nations.

They might take it too far and start something inadvertently but I can't believe that's their current goal.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. Guns of August applies here

And how the tit for tat, and the triggering of defense pacts led to WWI.

Suffice it to say...I am now a tad more worried, if nothing else tension is such that we could even have an accidental resumption of hostilities. We are at war, have been since 1948.

[joshcryer]

16. I don't watch TV.

I just assumed that CNN reporter I linked was reporting on it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. On the web they are

But TV, no, not really.

Think back to shock and awe and the scary music and graphics.

Why it's been remarkable when they mention Korea in any fashion, it's remarkable.

[fujiyama]

22. Sadly, international coverage on US news stations is pathetic

It's incredibly insular and feels parochial especially after checking out, say the BBC. CNN is probably a bit better in this regard than MSNBC and Fox, since they have an international presence.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. CNN I

CNN US is pathetic, but on this all have been more pathethic than usual. If we are gong to war (possible) there has not been one iota of creation of consent.

This is my big indicator that this is not the US intent...compare and contrast the months of war propaganda before both Gulf War I and II.

[Kablooie]

26. It's first page news on the Aljazeera news site.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

15. Only 3 S. Koreans have been allowed to leave so far.

Steve Herman @W7VOA

MoU: Only 3 S. Koreans have returned from Kaesong as of 11:50 KST. #DPRK

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. More

@stella2songhee: After 3 #ROK workers back in Seoul, 858 SK workers still remain in #DPRK's #GIC, without known plan for return, Seoul govt says

[amandabeech]

24. https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/

Twitter feed from cnn reporter on scene. Confirms other twitter reports. Only three cars exited N. Korea and gates closed.

Lots of reporters waiting for the exodus to begin.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. Well, it looks like a long vigil

[amandabeech]

30. I'm having trouble sleeping.

Usually, I can shut this stuff off, at least by this time, but tonight, I just have this bad feeling.

The CNN reporter says only three cars have come out and the gates are locked.

I have serious concerns that there's some sort of power struggle going on in the North. The youngest Kim may not be in charge, but who is?

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. I am nodding off, but at he same time...

[amandabeech]

47. I feel more relaxed.

Once the southbound movement starts, I'll be able to nod off.

Glad you're further along the sleep train.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. Found your ICBM

And raise you two...

I saw the story on the twitter but waited until a few reliable twitterers took it up.

It's now on the OP

[amandabeech]

32. Not good. Not good at all.

If the N.K.s shoot one of those things off, I question whether the S.K.s can really restrain themselves. Their PM is newer than young Kim and is a hawk.

I'll feel a lot better if and when the cars and people start coming south.

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. 7th fleet is there

So not just the SK military

[amandabeech]

37. I think that it would be unwise for us to start shooting before the SKs,

even in the event that our bases or navy are hit first.

It the SKs country, and they're going to have to start fighting first. Our obligation is to back them up.

Other countries will never chip in if our guns go off first, and the Chinese and Russians (who have been pretty quiet) will be a bigger problem if we start it. Remember, this is technically a UN operation, and has been from the git-go back in the '50s.

I think that we'll have to take it until the SKs go.

But if we get hit and they don't go at least some, then I think that we need to address that.

I think that Kerry is in Seoul. Obviously, his hands are full.

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. His meeting this afternoon...

No, the meeting was in DC...he was slated to go though.

Here

http://www.voanews.com/content/un-chief-north-korea-tensions-have-gone-too-far/1633448.html

[amandabeech]

40. Check my new reply, pls. n/t

[amandabeech]

39. BREAKING--CNN twitter feed above says that the gates are opening.

This is about 30 seconds ago.

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. Good

@KyungLahCNN: Gates have opened up again on the road leading to Kaesong. #CNN

[amandabeech]

43. Very good.

[nadinbrzezinski]

44. Her twitter photos

Yup, familiar to a point, including the dinner on the run.

You could not pay me enough to be down range from that though

[daybranch]

25. a way out

Why is it that the greatest superpowers the US , China, and Russia cannot work out a system which allows this country to move towards democracy? For example why instead of spending millions to threaten their dictator, we spent those millions to provide a safe and luxurious haven he could retire to and then we help the people. Oh I forgot, this pragmatism would hurt our cowboy image.

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. Has it occurred to you this has likely been offered already?

How do you tempt a living god?

[John2]

46. Where did you get

the idea China and Russia are trying to spread a Democracy in North Korea? China is a one state Party at that. So in your mind, is this about nation building again?

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. In a way China might prefer a less strong junk yard barn dog

The same for Russia.

You know, a more compliant client state. China is showing signs of annoyance.

[Kablooie]

33. Korean News from DKRP hasn't been updated since yesterday.

Looks like they might have stopped their English news service yesterday.

http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. I noticed that myself

Anon has been having fun with them, so perhaps that is the explanation.

(And DPRK the 1990s called, they'd like their code back)