Russia is now helping Iran bypass the Western-imposed economic and financial sanctions, but Iran is giving Russia nothing of strategic value in return. Thus Iran is expected to be more accommodating to Russia, but Iran cannot afford to see its influence in the Arab Levant erode, especially in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
During the past two years, Putin has tried to increase Russia’s influence in those countries. He used the Syrian crisis to raise Russia’s international standing. Putin sent Lavrov to Iraq, and then Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visited Russia in an attempt to end the distrust caused by Russia’s support for deposed Iraq ruler Saddam Hussein. Putin sent Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bodganov to Lebanon to signal that Moscow has a say in that country. Bodganov met with more than 15 Lebanese figures and parties as a sign of Moscow’s openness. Tehran is watching the Russian bear spread its influence in countries that Iran considers essential for its own influence.
In this moment of Russian-Iranian harmony caused by their mutual need for support in facing Washington, it is not clear how this relationship will be affected if the US-Russian partnership succeeds in resolving the Syrian crisis separately from Iran. Will it cause the Russian-Iranian contradictions in the Levant to explode? The more difficult question, which Assad wishes he will never have to answer, is whether the Russian-American partnership will one day force Assad to choose between Russia or Iran.
Some think that if Assad feels that the Geneva Accord will remove him from power, he will dump Moscow and jump completely into Iran’s lap. But if he feels that the Russians will guarantee his survival, he will become more inclined to accept Russian protection rather than be protect by Iran, a country hated by Washington, Tel Aviv and the Arabs. Assad would prefer not to be forced to choose between Iran and Russia. But the future will be determined by the international developments in the Syrian crisis, not his wishes.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/tehran-fears-russian-american-partnership-syria.html
Will Iran (or Turkey for that matter) be a part of these negotiations, if they happen? Iran certainly is a 'player' in the Syrian civil war, as is Turkey. Will Russia and Iran be on the same page with respect to any proposed solution to Syria? Is it at all possible that Assad and Iran could try to go forward without Russia's backing if they view any Geneva agreement as threatening Assad's continued rule (and with that much of Iran's influence on events there in the future)?
Given the structure of the Security Council, if the US and Russia agree on anything with respect to Syria, the UN is likely to go along. The importance of the roles in the negotiations of Turkey, Iran and other neighbors of Syria should be interesting to note - again, if these negotiations ever happen.
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