PPP Polls:Romney leads Santorum by just 3 in Arizona, 36-33. Gingrich at 16%, Paul at 9%

[BrentWil]

Keeps on getting more interesting... If Romney were to lose both AZ and MI....

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/romney-lead-small-in-arizona.html

The Republican race for President in Arizona looks like a close one, with Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum only 36-33. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%.

Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, but the gap isn't as wide as we're finding in a lot of other states. Santorum's at +34 (61/27), while Romney's at +24 (58/34).

One thing to keep an eye on over the next week is whether Newt Gingrich can hold his support. 16% is pretty good for him compared to what we're finding other places right now, but only 46% of his voters say they're solidly committed to him. 40% of his supporters say that Santorum is their second choice, compared to only 25% for Romney. If Gingrich's supporters see he's not viable and decide to jump ship the race could get even closer.

Santorum and Romney are both generally winning the same groups we find them winning in Michigan and nationally right now. The reason Romney's leading in Arizona but trailing in those other places is that he's at least staying competitive with the groups he tends to be weaker with. For instance he's only down by 11 points with Tea Party voters, 43-32. He's only down 13 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' 44-31. And he's down just 18 with Evangelicals, 45-27. Those are all groups he's losing by more than 25 points in Michigan right now.

[LonePirate]

1. I wish Gingrich would swallow his pride and drop out. We need Frothy to win AZ and MI.

[BrentWil]

4. I think he is thinking he can win GA, and TN on super Tuesday..

and thus launch the third Newt come from behind

[marybourg]

2. AZ has a large Mormon population.

[former9thward]

3. Even if Santorum is coming up in the polls it may be too late for him in AZ

Only about 10% of primary voters in AZ vote on election day itself. Most vote by mail with early voting so probably most of the votes have already been cast.

[sofa king]

5. Close enough to steal.

Judging by the way things have gone so far, that means Romney wins it in the press, then gives it back later.