Abbott Leads Davis by 6 Points in Latest UT/Texas Tribune Poll

[Major Nikon]

Source: University of Texas

AUSTIN, Texas — If the election for Texas governor were held today, Attorney General Greg Abbott would have a six-point lead over state Sen. Wendy Davis, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
Forty percent of Texans said they would vote for Abbott in a head-to-head race with Davis, with 34 percent indicating support for Davis and 25 percent responding as undecided.

“What you’ve got is a race in which, for the first time in a long time, the Democrat is as well-known as the Republican at the outset of the race,” said poll co-director Daron Shaw, a professor of government at The University of Texas at Austin. “If it’s Abbott, he will have to introduce himself to Republican voters and mobilize them in a way that neither Bush nor Perry had to. Those Bush and Perry voters are still out there for him, though.”

The statewide poll, conducted Oct. 18-27, surveyed 1,200 registered Texas voters and had a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.utexas.edu/news/2013/11/04/abbott-davis-texas-poll/

---

This was the poll results from a month ago:

A Texas Lyceum poll out this week showed Abbott leading Davis 29% to 21% but showed that a majority of voters had no preference in the race and revealed that 45% of Republicans and almost 80% of independents didn't know enough about Abbott.

UT analysis:
http://texaspolitics.laits.utexas.edu/11_1_0.html

[newfie11]

1. Come on Texas women

Get out and vote for Wendy!!!

[justabob]

2. "for the first time in a long time, the Democrat is as well-known as the Republican"

The importance of this cannot be overstated. I hope some more Texas dems can get out there and make a name for themselves. We've got a few, like the Castros and Davis, but we need more.

[Zen Democrat]

3. Actually that's great news. Merely a 6% lead for Abbot must be freaking out the Teaparts.

[ancianita]

4. OH FUCK. COME ON, TEXAS WOMEN!

[LisaL]

7. Neither one of them is on the ballot in 2013.

Their election will be next year, I believe.

[ancianita]

8. I want to see a greater momentum in polling. I'm anxious that she'll be outspent, out-media'd.

[joshdawg]

5. This should be a no-brainer,

except it's Texas. Abbott, Dewhurst, and dumber'n a bag of hammers perry are the three stupids. One is exactly like the other. A vote for abbott is a vote for perry, etc.
Davis is a breath of fresh air compared to the stench of the republican majority.

[lostincalifornia]

6. We have to overcome the voter ID laws in Texas

[LisaL]

9. Abbott almost made himself ineligible to vote.

His ID doesn't exactly match his registration card.

[lostincalifornia]

11. that is almost funny

[LisaL]

13. It really is.

It would be even funnier if he showed up and was told he was not eligible to vote since his ID name didn't match his voter registration card.
But thanks to Wendy Davis, people like him are still able to vote (they have to sign an affidavit confirming they are who they say they are).

[Gothmog]

17. The case should come to trial before the 2014 General Election

From what I have seen, there will hopefully be a decision before the 2014 general election in the voter id case. I am hopeful that the court will strike down this law and that the 5th Cir. will not block this.

[Gothmog]

25. Crap. The trial for the voter id case may not take place until after 2014 elections

This could be very sad news http://txredistricting.org/post/66123340534/disagreement-on-whether-trial-in-texas-voter-id-case

While the parties were able to agree on a number of issues, they were not able to agree on a single discovery schedule. Instead, the Justice Department - joined by MALC, the NAACP, and Texas League of Young Voters - submitted one proposal, the State of Texas another, and the Veasey plaintiffs a third.

The major division centered around how long it would take to get the case ready for trial - with DOJ and the State of Texas each proposing schedules that would set trial in the case for March 2015.

However, the Veasey plaintiffs told the court that a 2015 was too late because it would come after the November 2014 elections:

The Veasey plaintiffs propose a schedule that - unlike the other parties’ schedule - would provide an opportunity for plaintiffs to obtain relief on behalf of Texas voters in time for the November 2014 elections, the first major turnout elections in which Texas seeks to enforce the Voter ID law. The Veasey plaintiffs believe it is critically important to obtain a decision on SB 14’s validity before, not after, the first major elections, and they further believe it is feasible for the parties and the Court to have a trial on such a schedule.

Instead, under the Veasey plaintiffs schedule, the court would hold trial in September 2014.

DOJ told the court, however, that a limited period of discovery after the 2014 election would let evidence from that election be considered at trial. DOJ also argued that the need for extensive database discovery and other discovery issues would make it hard to try the case before the 2014 election.

[Dustlawyer]

10. Abbott is a more intelligent Rick Perry. Forgive me stating the obvious, everyone is more

intelligent than Rick Perry! Wendy seems to be the Real Deal, please give her your support. She can go a long way to turning Texas Blue which helps us all!

[LisaL]

12. How smart could he actually be?

He championed voting ID laws, that would have made him personally ineligible to vote. Since his ID name doesn't match his voter registration card.

"On his driver license, he’s Gregory Wayne Abbott, Hirsch said. In the voter registration file, he’s simply Greg Abbott."

http://blog.mysanantonio.com/texas-politics/2013/10/greg-abbott-will-need-affidavit-to-vote/

[Dustlawyer]

16. Like I said, being smarter than Rick Perry is not a very high bar!

[Gothmog]

18. I was at the same firm as Greg in the 1980s

I did not consider him to be very bright.

[Dustlawyer]

21. Sorry to say, but u find that encouraging!

[Gothmog]

22. Greg is not that smart and he is mean

Greg was a toxic tort defense attorney. The attorneys in that section were not very smart but they were mean and saw nothing wrong with cheating widows and orphans out of money. Greg has a very nasty streak which is already showing in the race. Greg sees nothing wrong with encouraging his supporters to be as nasty as possible to Senator Davis and that nastiness should help generate a gender gap.

Virginia is a good model in that the VA AG is also a nasty person and he managed to generate a 24 point gender gap in Virginia. Wendy Davis is far more likable compared to the Democratic candidate in Virginia and I am hopeful that we will see a good size gender gap in Texas due to Greg's inherent lack of charm

[Dustlawyer]

23. I have been a toxic tort plaintiff's attorney.

It takes a certain type of person to represent asbestos companies who covered up the dangers of their products for generations, killing millions. I could not sit across from someone dying from mesothelioma and try to get them to say the wrong thing. A certain kind of heartlessness. That is the kind of guy these Repugs want. Sad.
Go Wendy!

[Gothmog]

24. Greg's inherent character is going to come out

I am convinced that Greg's inherent character is going to come out in this race. I have seen this already in such things as the "abortion Barbie" comments. Greg's initial ads are horrible in that you can not find one non-white person in these ads. Greg is going to run a nasty campaign and I hope that it backfires on him.

BTW, your observations about toxic tort defense counsel are very accurate. I really did not like that section of the firm and had very little in common with these people.

[jsr]

14. Wendy can do this.

[Dopers_Greed]

15. As much as I support Wendy Davis

I'd bet my entire savings that it will be Abbott.

Texas is a SOLID red state. I live in a more urban area of Texas and a lot of the people I know are hardcore Republicans, and the rest are either Paul-bots or don't vote.

Though I'm still voting for her of course.

[Gothmog]

20. Paul Begala has a good point of view

According to Begala, Texas is not a red state so much as it is a non-voting state. If Texas voters ever start voting, then the GOP will lose control.

[Gothmog]

19. Juanita Jean loves this polling

http://www.juanitajean.com/2013/11/04/creo-que-hell-yes/

Do you wanna know when was the last time a Democrat in Texas started within single digits? I don’t know either so it had to be while the earth was cooling.

So, can Wendy Davis win? Does Howdy Doody have wooden toes?

[851-977]

26. Polls which do not force undecided to decide are useless

That explains the small gap between candidates. 25% are undecided. In a conservative state such as Texas, undecided will vote overwhelmingly conservative.

[Major Nikon]

27. You're assuming the undecided will vote at all

People often put undecided because they either don't know enough about the candidates or they do and don't like either one. In both cases those are the people who often opt to stay at home on election day which is significant for Texas gubernatorial races held during midterm elections with lower turnouts.

[851-977]

30. I didn't assume that 100% of the undecided will "vote at all"

The question is: Among the ones who do end up voting, how many will vote R and how many will vote D?

[1KansasDem]

28. Way to early to mean much

[blkmusclmachine]

29. Texass goes GOP. In other news, water is wet.