Nuclear war would 'end civilization' with famine: study

[bananas]

Source: Agence France-Presse

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would set off a global famine that could kill two billion people and effectively end human civilization, a study said Tuesday.

Even if limited in scope, a conflict with nuclear weapons would wreak havoc in the atmosphere and devastate crop yields, with the effects multiplied as global food markets went into turmoil, the report said.

The Nobel Peace Prize-winning International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and Physicians for Social Responsibility released an initial peer-reviewed study in April 2012 that predicted a nuclear famine could kill more than a billion people.

In a second edition, the groups said they widely underestimated the impact in China and calculated that the world's most populous country would face severe food insecurity.

<snip>

Read more: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hRgYyfu_3ZzSXs1o2ZjE43fV3F5Q?docId=d8137f0e-fad1-4034-9569-b1fab419a8cc

[bananas]

1. New report from IPPNW: two billion at risk from nuclear famine

http://peaceandhealthblog.com/2013/12/10/nuclear-famine-two/

New report from IPPNW: two billion at risk from nuclear famine
December 10, 2013

International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) and its US affiliate Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) today released a new report concluding that more than two billion people—a quarter of the world’s population—would be at risk of starvation in the event of a limited nuclear exchange, such as one that could occur between India and Pakistan, or by the use of even a small number of the nuclear weapons held by the US and Russia.

“A nuclear war using only a fraction of existing arsenals would produce massive casualties on a global scale—far more than we had previously believed,” said the report’s author, IPPNW co-president Ira Helfand.

Nuclear Famine: Two Billion People at Risk? updates a study originally written by Dr. Helfand in 2012. Like the previous edition, the report released today is based upon research published by climate scientists who have assessed the impact of nuclear explosions on the Earth’s atmosphere and other ecosystems.

<snip>

The report is at http://www.ippnw.org/nuclear-famine.html

[bananas]

2. PDF and additional info

The report pdf is http://www.ippnw.org/pdf/nuclear-famine-two-billion-at-risk-2013.pdf

Additional info at http://www.ippnw.org/nuclear-famine.html

[Treant]

4. I'm surprised

it's that cheerful, actually. Given that I don't think the Chinese are going to go quietly into that good night, I'd expect a land grab and major war (possibly with more nukes now that the cat is out of the bag) to follow.

[sarge43]

3. And in late breaking news, water is wet. n/t

[CFLDem]

5. Well duh

That's why the Russians had most of their nukes targeting the plains states and Midwest.

[Alhena]

23. That's where our ICBMs are ...

They targetted us there because that's where our ICBMs are based- North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming.

[CFLDem]

29. That's another good reason, too.

Part if me thinks the Russians knew that our ICBMS would no longer be in their silos should they attack.

[Orrex]

6. And the hits keep coming!

[canoeist52]

7. I would like to believe that the power brokers of the world knew this already.

Do we have to go back to the '50's and '60's to explain why we lived in fear and said "NO NUKES"?

[drynberg]

8. How likely is it in any given year that Pakistan and India will push the buttons?

Both countries are armed well and disputed border lands of Kashmir simmer and the world hopes and some even pray. What would the fate of the other 5 Billion souls be if nukes were exchanged? I don't imagine it would just be a few nasty bombs...it's enough to drive one to push for a post nuke world. Yeah, that would be a great Seasonal Gift to the whole world...now, how to make this happen...

[stevenleser]

26. I'm very concerned that this will happen some day. They are constantly antagonizing each other...

It only requires things to go too far once, right?

They are so close to each other that if things start to go wrong, they will both be on a hair trigger in terms of launching missiles.

[Jackpine Radical]

9. These guys are just a bunch of doom-crying traitors who don't want us to nuke Iran.

Pay no attention to them.

[AtheistCrusader]

10. I thnk using weapons that destroy entire cities would mark the 'end of civilization'

by default, regardless of what comes after.

Civilized people do not exterminate each other like ants.

[heaven05]

11. really???

[AtheistCrusader]

15. Yup.

[bananas]

18. It's not very "civil" to destroy entire cities.

The word "civilization" comes from the word "civil".
A civilization isn't just skyscrapers and freeways, it's civilized behaviour.

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=civilization

civilization (n.)

1704, "law which makes a criminal process civil," from civilize + -ation. Sense of "civilized condition" first recorded 1772, probably from French civilisation, to be an opposite to barbarity and a distinct word from civility. Sense of a particular human society in a civilized condition, considered as a whole over time, is from 1857. Related: Civilizational.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilization

In his book The Philosophy of Civilization, Albert Schweitzer outlined the idea that there are dual opinions within society: one regarding civilization as purely material and another regarding civilization as both ethical and material. He stated that the current world crisis was, then in 1923, due to a humanity having lost the ethical conception of civilization. In this same work, he defined civilization, saying that it "is the sum total of all progress made by man in every sphere of action and from every point of view in so far as the progress helps towards the spiritual perfecting of individuals as the progress of all progress."

http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/190990-happiness-is-nothing-more-than-good-health-and-a-bad

“Happiness is nothing more than good health and a bad memory.”

― Albert Schweitzer

[heaven05]

19. sorry to be misunderstood

I meant to be sarcastic. Our civilization went down the drain starting with Auschwitz, Dachau, Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We ARE NOT civilized beings. We have A civilization, but we ARE NOT civilized. Oh did I mention our 'civilized' society? Native-american genocide, slavery....and I could go on and on, but I won't belabor the point.

[bananas]

21. We're all just souls with good intentions being misunderstood

and it sucks, but what can you do?

[heaven05]

33. i love her, especially

'feeling good'.

[AtheistCrusader]

28. Oh dear, I misunderstood your post entirely.

Sorry for my pithy response, I didn't catch your meaning.

(Not very civil of me, either)

[bananas]

30. Eric Burdon - Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood (Lugano, 2006)

[heaven05]

34. I hadn't listened to him in years. Great rendition. thanks.

[truebluegreen]

13. "Would mark" or "marked"?

After all, this has already been done.

[AtheistCrusader]

14. Both.

I view most of the acts on both sides of WWII as a complete suspension of civilization. Not just Fat Man and Little Boy. The deliberate targeting of cities/civilians by both sides, MAXIMUM EFFORT, mass exterminations in Europe/East Europe, and around the SE Pacific, you name it.

Brawls don't get much dirtier than that one, short of terminating our entire species. We've recovered a bit, but you still see echoes of it every time there's a 'minor' regional skirmish. When people passively accept things like our plan for SHOCK AND AWE in Iraq. (Rapid Dominance military doctrine, adopted by the US military, known in WWII as blitzkrieg) To intentionally destroy "means of communication, transportation, food production, water supply, and other aspects of infrastructure" inherently requires targeting civilians, even while the other side of the SecDef's mouth is claiming to seek to avoid civilian casualties.

We've gotten better, but that thin veneer of civilization is always easy to strip away, if someone 'gets out of line' and we need to apply 'overwhelming force' to 'end the conflict quickly'.

Not much more than a thin veneer. And we see where that got us in Iraq...

[truebluegreen]

16. Agree totally.

Recently read a book that laid it out very well: "Washington Rules" by Andrew Bacevich. I recommend it highly.

[AtheistCrusader]

17. Interesting. I've not heard of that book. I'll check it out soon.

Thank you.

[bananas]

20. "that thin veneer of civilization is always easy to strip away"

That's the problem, isn't it?

[bananas]

27. Eric Burdon - Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood (Lugano, 2006)

gray hair like me
oh lord don't let me be misunderstood
i'm just a soul whose intentions are good

[jwirr]

12. That is believable especially since from what I have read the famine that sent Eastern Europeans

scrambling for better locations (such as the Irish famine) was supposedly caused by volcano ash. Not up on many of the facts as I read about it years ago. Sorry for no link.

[Alhena]

24. I don't think these kind of modelings are very precise ...

a lot of experts were predicting climate catastrophe when Saddam blew up the Kuwaiti oil wells in the first Gulf War. It didn't have much impact at all.

Computer climate models aren't much help when you're dealing with unprecedented events. We've never had a large nuclear exchange, so it's hard to say exactly how much it will affect the climate.

[Uncle Joe]

22. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, bananas.

[GliderGuider]

25. So will climate change.

Unfortunately, while we can avoid nuclear war, we can not avoid climate change doing the same thing.

So it goes.

[madrchsod]

31. civilization as we know it

we are not going extinct because of a nuke war in the northern hemisphere

[olddad56]

32. If that were to happen, the survivors will envy the dead.

I hope the bomb hits me on the head.

[Lee-Lee]

35. I have to question this- we and the Soviets went crazy in the 50's and 60's detonating nukes

and there was no famine or disaster. I doubt any exchange between India and Pakistan will be in the number of devices.