Payroll employment rises 227,000 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 8.3%

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Sat Mar 24, 2012, 01:42 PM - Edit history (4)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2012


Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and businesses services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and mining.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons, at 12.8 million, was essentially unchanged in February. The unemployment rate held at 8.3 percent, 0.8 percentage point below the August 2011 rate. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.7 percent), adult women (7.7 percent), teenagers (23.8 percent), whites (7.3 percent), blacks (14.1 percent), and Hispanics (10.7 percent) showed little or no change in February. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.4 million in February. These individuals accounted for 42.6 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

This is more than had been predicted. A few days ago, there were posts at DU reporting ADP's estimate that 216,000 jobs were added in February. Gruntled Old Man started this one, for example:

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February

-- -- -- -- --

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, DOL Newsletter:

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The household survey, or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The establishment survey, or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

-- -- -- --

Inevitably each month, I get a few people dissing the BLS, saying that the numbers are just invented or otherwise talking trash about BLS employees. Nonsense. The day after the March 2012 release, the Washington Post ran a story on its front page detailing the timeline of the release of the number. It is well worth reading.

Disclaimer: I do not work at BLS.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/jobs-day-an-economic-and-political-obsession/2012/03/09/gIQADZPW1R_story.html

Jobs Day’: Monthly release of employment data an economic, political obsession

Watching the clock

By Eli Saslow, Published: March 9
The president’s senior advisers walked into the Roosevelt Room at 8:29 a.m., refreshing the screens on their BlackBerrys in a race to see the monthly employment numbers first. Their daily planning meeting in the White House always felt a bit futile on this one Friday a month, because nobody knew what to plan for, exactly. It was “JOBS DAY,” the words capitalized and bolded on their official White House calendars, because the 8:30 a.m. release of economic data could redefine what came next.
....

The release of employment numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has long been a ritual in Washington, but lately it has turned into an obsession during an election year defined by economic instability. Once each month, a nondescript government agency compiles and releases 24 tables of economic data that have come to define the 2012 election and so much else. Republican presidential candidates turn the numbers into speeches. The president’s staff monitors how they affect his approval rating. The Federal Reserve reevaluates interest rates. Investors prepare for the stock market to rise or fall, sometimes swinging in value by $150 billion in the minutes after the report is released.
....

‘You dream in numbers’

Karen Kosanovich had been working through the numbers in her high-walled cubicle for the past eight days, trying to turn 110,000 lines of raw data into a precise summary understandable to the general public. Empty cans of Red Bull sat on one side of her desk. Folders labeled “CLASSIFIED DATA” stacked high on the other. She had helped compile the past 164 employment situation reports, but still each month began with the same sense of improbability.

The lockdown was an exercise in tedium and precision, but those have been the hallmarks of BLS for 125 years. The agency remains strictly nonpartisan and intentionally bland. It measures the economy without ever opining on it. “The glass here is never half-empty or half-full,” Kosanovich said, repeating a popular BLS motto. “It’s an eight-ounce glass with four ounces of liquid.”

From AHEAD OF THE TAPE, on page C1 of The Wall Street Journal. for Friday, March 9, 2012:

Divining the Truth From Jobless Figures

AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated March 8, 2012, 7:46 p.m. ET
Divining the Truth From Jobless Figures

....
Much like Apple inc.'s unveiling this week of its latest product upgrade, expect the Labor Department's employment report to provide some dazzle, followed by a letdown and questions about whether employment growth can be sustained.
....

But the official jobs figure, by its nature, invites skepticism, even from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Last week, he called the labor market "far from normal," despite a recent sharp decline in the unemployment rate.

One factor possibly at play: seasonal adjustments that massage the total jobs figure higher by many times the expected change in jobs. If such tweaks are just a bit too aggressive, the trend could be misleading. Additionally, distortions dating from the recession may have overinflated adjustments. And this year's warmer-than-normal winter also may provide a false sense of momentum.
....

Just as the company that Steve Jobs founded has struggled to evoke his legendary showmanship, investors are right to worry that jobs data may be more show than reality.

Write to Spencer Jakab at [e-mail]

[Inuca]

1. You beat me to it :-)

I clicked to post this. Good news!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. I make a point of posting this every month.

I have the commentary making note of the tables and explaining where the numbers come from ready to go. This month, I had the link to the ADP report of a few days back ready to post too.

The numbers are the numbers, and I post them whether they are good or bad, regardless of how they make any particular politician look.

I think DU is the first place on the Interwebz other than BLS itself where you can find this information. I'd like to keep it that way. It's foolish pride, but it's my foolish pride.

Thanks for reading this.

[Inuca]

23. Keep on doing what you are doing

very useful information . But I first saw the info on my twwter feed

[mahatmakanejeeves]

28. What?!?! There's a rival system of tubes?!?!

n/t

Thanks.

[jschurchin]

2. This is good news.

For a while there I thought McDonalds quit hiring. I'm glad to see all is well.

[CAPHAVOC]

4. Squawk Box

I always watch Squawk on CNBC in the morning. Today they were all having a big laugh about the BLS report. Maybe they should leave out the L.

[jschurchin]

5. Yeah Cap, I agree.

here is what gets me. Job's are a good thing, IF they are good paying job's. The work year based on 40 hrs a week is 2080 hours. $10/hr is $20k, and people consider that a good job. Unfortunatly with fuel at $4/gal, most people need 3 of those "good" jobs to get by.

200,000+ job's is a good thing, unfortunatly, most of them are not good job's and a lot of the cheerleaders here don't understand that.

[bigdarryl]

7. you sound like your carrying the right wing echo chamber

how the hell do you know these jobs are low paying

[jschurchin]

11. Here Darryl, A quick search produced this

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/jobs.htm

This is a quick look at who is hiring, without any BS from D.C.

And from the same site, who is letting people go,

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

Educate yourself brother and quit being a sheep. It's amazing that people allow themselves to be led around by the nose and claim to be Democrat's.

[da_decider]

27. I am a sheep who...

... is proud to cheer a president who took over an economy that was bleeding 700k jobs a month and turn the conservatives' disaster into 17 straight months of job creation, at about 180k jobs per month created.
And yes, we are still not where we want to be, and these jobs are not all as well paying as mine and yours, and we have a lot of work to do. BUT, as long as we have pessimist cry babies like YOU in our side, we don't need the obstructionist teabaggers, whom without, we would have created far more jobs.
You sound like a perfect Faux and Friends panelist.

[jschurchin]

32. I feel sorry for individual's such as yourself.

Thinking for yourself and doing some research is beyond your capability. I guess this is what keep's our government in business, making sure the lazy among us are taken care of.

[da_decider]

37. I did not get the point in your post

Oh wait, there was none. you went as far as calling me lazy and feeling sorry for me (thank you by the way) but that was it. You did not counter any point I made. Instead made some "convenient" assumptions about me without even knowing me. Who is lazy now?
By the way, research IS my job. Some of us need to be R&D engineers, the rest can go online and call other people lazy.

[jschurchin]

40. Zing, oh you got me good.

Im done playing with you. Your way too smart for me. Bye.

[da_decider]

42. Goodbye child.

This thread is for intelligent discussion, if you have nothing to add, just go away and stop wasting people time.

[jpak]

41. I feel sorry for people like you

Last edited Sat Mar 10, 2012, 04:54 PM - Edit history (1)

Dem majority Congress 2103.

Obama term 2 Jan 2013

yup

[treestar]

18. this cheerleader does know that a plural does not contain an apostrophe

Maybe that helps in getting a job.

[jschurchin]

22. Hey, thanks for the correction.

I was never very good at english. Somehow though it hasn't prevented me from holding a $70k/yr job. Go figure.

[Lucky Luciano]

44. $70K - what a Playah!!

[treestar]

45. Not believable

Even if the alleged job is completely scientific, such a person would know that rule and wouldn't repeatedly misuse it.

[mathematic]

6. You people are hilarious

This report defied every single negative spin that the usuals like to use.

To recap:
The number beat expectations.
The revisions to past month were positive.
The labor force participation increased.
U6 improved.
The non-seasonally adjusted numbers improved.
Long term unemployment (as measured by U1) improved.
This confirms a trend in improving employment.

Am I missing anything else? I think all you're left with is the-evil-government-is-collecting-data-and-doing-statistics-so-they-must-be-wrong.

[CAPHAVOC]

14. Lisman was on that.

He was paying attention to the internal info. But the political number is the rate. Consensus seems to be things are not going to change much for a long time.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. Missed this

Wages increased.

Things are getting better, period. Are they were they need to be? No, but they are improving at a steady rate and have been for some time. Employment is always a lagging indicator as to the health of the economy, and wages even somewhat lagging behind that. We're set up for a very good 2012 which will undoubtedly see unemployment fall and wages rise.

[dmallind]

8. U3 static. U6 nice drop. Wonfer how many "we must use U6" people will speak up.

When u3 improves more than u6 does that's a given.

[jschurchin]

9. Your absolutly right.

U-6 dropped to 14.9%. All is well here, nothing to see. Carry on. LOLOLOLOLOL

[dmallind]

10. Is that higher or lower than 15.1? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL?

[jschurchin]

12. Yeah 15% Unemployment is a GREAT thing.

Woohooo. Carry on.

[clangsnwhoops]

13. Obama recovery

Four years ago,we were losing 800,000 jobs a month,now we're creating over 200,000 jobs a month. Thanks President Obama. Again,Democrats clean up messes Republicans create.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. Time not right

3 years ago we were losing 800,000 jobs a month, that was slowed to a trickle in just 9 months and we've had steady job growth ever since. A remarkable turnaround.

[jschurchin]

17. When President Obama took office the unemployment rate was 7.8%

Now the rate is 8.3%. What is this recovery you speak of?

Now before you go off the deep end, I am a regestered Democrat. I voted for our President and in November I will vote for him again. The thing is, people on this site cheerlead about how everything is just great, peachy, wonderful, couldn't be better. I am a realist. I use the common sense my lord gave me and search for as much information as possible before I make a decision on the state of this nation.
And from everything I can find, we are treading water. For a great number of americans life now is much more difficult then it was 20 years ago. 46 million Americans depend on public assistance just to feed themselves.

This is a recovery??

Not in my book brother.

[JoePhilly]

19. 7.8% on its way to 10.2% ... you miss that?

It was 8.6% in Feb 2009 ... BEFORE the stimulus passed.

Obama stopped the collapse and turned it around ... and its driving some crazy.

But that will only last for about 4.5 more years.

[jschurchin]

20. Yeah Joe, all is well. n/t

[Inuca]

25. All is NOT well, but it IS getting better

And your numbers a couple of posts upthread (unemployment when Obama took office vs. now) sound like they were picked up from a ROmney speech. And don't reply please saying that they are facts. Yes, they are (I guess, did not check, but the #s look right), but all facts have a context, and anybody who is more than happy to be disingenous for whatever reason (I assume your and ROmney's are different, but I am not sure) can manipulate and twist the context to his advantage.

[JoePhilly]

43. Did I say all was well??

No.

But I will say that it is pretty clear that the anti Obama folks are struggling to defend their perpetual "outrage".

[Johnny2X2X]

21. Exactly

It was 10%+ before Obama even had a chance to hang pictures in the oval office. The American people understand this. The American people also understand that most of the stimulus was not spent until 2010.

Does anyone really think there was anything Obama could do about job losses in the 1st several months of 2009 when literaly none of his policies had begun to take effect?

[alp227]

30. similarly during Reagan's 1st term, unemployment was 8.3% in 12/1983

then in 3/1984 was 7.8%.

Source: Google public data

Before Obama and Reagan, the unemployment rate last went above 8% during the Ford administration (throughout 1975).

[mathematic]

24. You are not a realist.

A realist would look at the BLS report and see that things are improving. Data collection (sampling) and statistics WORK for finding information about the aggregate, just as surely as physics work for building a bridge. Assuming you're not an anti-government conspiracy nut, you have no rational basis for rejecting this month's broadly positive BLS report.

[jschurchin]

31. I didn't reject the report.

I am simply saying that there is not a substantial recovery going on.

This is kinda dated, October 2011, But the point is, we are treading water.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/21/news/economy/middle_class_income/index.htm

Our living standard is at the same level as it was in 1990!!!! 19 motherfucking90!!!! Please tell me again Mathmatic how i'm not a realist. How everything is just wonderful. How the American people are doing great.

Bring your evidence that we are in such better shape, as a nation, then we were when the greatest President of my lifetime, William J. Clinton, was in office. Bring it mathmatic.

[mathematic]

33. That's easy enough

People live lifetimes, not points in time. How I'm doing right now is a function of how I've done my entire life. The average total income over the last 20 years is higher than the average total income from 72-92. This is a critical point.

Never mind the actual quality differences that are "small" but make a big difference (off the top of my head):
Instant access to more information than I'd ever use in my entire lifetime. Books, research reports, all sorts of public data, etc.
Better and plentiful entertainment options, such as high quality TV, streaming movies, out of market sports programming, dozens of high quality craft beers, and more!
Online access to local government, banks, and utilities.
Free or low cost tax preparation software.
A wide variety of foods and ingredients from my local mass-market grocery store.
And even lightweight fabrics that let me run during the dead of winter without freezing my ass off.

It's plain as day. I'm better informed, better entertained, and living a life of less drudgery than 20 years ago. And (not like it's any of your business mr-I-earn-over-70k-a-year) I'm unemployed!

[surfdog]

26. Haters are going to hate

If you don't think moving from losing 800,000 jobs a month to gaining hundreds of thousands of jobs a month isnt a recovery then you're on the wrong site

If you think going from negative GDP to positive GDP is the wrong direction than you need to have a head x-ray

Indicators are moving in a positive direction that means a recovery is happening

In your mind losing 800,000 jobs a month is better than gaining hundreds of thousands of jobs a month otherwise you would say we are in a recovery

Like I said haters Gonna hate no matter what the news is

[Enrique]

29. that's not right

there was no hate in the post you're responding to, you should apologize to him for falsely accusing him of hating. Smears like that in the name of defending Obama make Obama look bad, fair or not.

[dennis4868]

36. I look at it....

As the black guy who has to clean up the mess of the white guys....

[slackmaster]

34. My personal unemployment rate is about to go from 100% to 0%

I just got the call. Offer letter incoming pending successful completion of background check.

[da_decider]

38. congrats

4 more years.

[Johnny2X2X]

35. Just awesome!!!

Great numbers, but the best part about them is that there are indicators that the coming several months will be more of the same. The economy is picking up some real steam, let's go America!!!

[andym]

39. Economy is clearly on the mend

not that it couldn't go even faster. How ironic that a similar scenario with the economy is playing out now to that which changed Reagan from a probable one-term President into the "savior" of the economy in 1984. Perhaps this will help convince the middle that liberalism is effective and conservatism a ticket to failure (the reverse happened in the 80's).