U.S. intel assessement: greater likelihood Russia will enter eastern Ukraine

[okaawhatever]

Source: CNN

A new classified intelligence assessment concludes it is more likely than previously thought that Russian forces will enter eastern Ukraine, CNN has learned.

Two administration officials described the assessment but declined to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the information.

The officials emphasized that nothing is certain, but there have been several worrying signs in the past three to four days.

“This has shifted our thinking that the likelihood of a further Russian incursion is more probable than it was previously thought to be,” one official said.


The buildup is seen to be reminiscent of Moscow’s military moves before it went into Chechnya and Georgia in both numbers of units and their capabilities.

U.S. military and intelligence officials have briefed Congress on the assessment.

As a result, Republican members of the House Armed Services Committee late Wednesday sent a classified letter to the White House expressing concern about unfolding developments.

Continued at Link:

Read more: http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2014/03/26/u-s-intel-assessement-greater-likelihood-russia-will-enter-eastern-ukraine/

[okaawhatever]

1. From the article:

The United States believes that Russia might decide to go into eastern Ukraine to establish a land bridge into Crimea.

The belief is that Russian forces would move toward three Ukrainian cities: Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk in order to establish land access into Crimea. Russian forces are currently positioned in and around Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod, according to U.S. intelligence information.

If Russia does this there will be no denying their intentions. I don't know if Ukraine will fight or try to settle it in international court.

[HereSince1628]

2. Court? I can't imagine Putin cares much about international courts.

This is looking poorly for an independent Ukraine.

Transdniestria is west of Odessa...ALL of the Ukraines coastline would be under Russian Control.

[delrem]

3. The USA is not a member of the ICC. That is fact. nt

[joshcryer]

8. Thanks to the war criminal Bush.

Clinton and Obama have both made efforts to join the ICC. Bush, however, set the US back 8 years on those efforts. Obama has been on record in favor of ratifying the Rome Statute, though it is unlikely to pass under the current Senate which is probably why it has not been tried.

But yes, you're technically correct.

[another_liberal]

4. The Military Industrial Complex is hungry and howling for blood.

Though I doubt if they will actually succeed in getting the American public to support their lust for a new war this time around.

[The Magistrate]

10. Mr. Putin Seems To Be Itching For a War Himself, Sir

That would be a legitimate conclusion from Russian military activities on the border with Ukraine.

[pffshht]

5. It's not a "classified U.S. intel assessment" if you're reading about it on CNN on the Internet.

That's called an official unofficial press release; or more bluntly, it's propaganda.

But I take it as a good sign that they're saying Russia's likely to go further; that means they don't want it to happen. If they did; the "leaked" assessment would be more or less "Nope, Never gonna happen; Putin doesn't have the yarbles..."

[okaawhatever]

6. The story referred to both a classified report and an unclassified version that was released

to the press.

"An unclassified version obtained by CNN said committee members feel “urgency and alarm, based on new information in the committee’s possession.”

And it's not propaganda. If you took two minutes to read the story or any additional information you'd know they aren't calling for any action, just reporting what they see as likely to happen.

[Purveyor]

7. What nonsense. Vlad got what he wanted, Crimera...end of game. eom

[joshcryer]

9. We'll see.

Putin may in fact invade if Ukraine accepts Crimea as a legitimate territory of Russia.

Because then Ukraine will be able to join NATO.

[happyslug]

13. Does NATO wants a Country that voted for a Supporter of Moscow just a few years ago????

Remember, the President who was KICKED out,Viktor Yanukovych did get just under 50% of the vote when he WON the Presidency in 2010 (Yanukovych, in the run off between the top two voter getters, received 48% of the vote, his opponent 45% of the vote, Given there are no write candidates 7% of voters either did not vote for either canidate OR the vote was invalid. Fraud was alleged but then withdrawn)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych#Presidency_.282010.E2.80.932014.29



In simple terms, does NATO wants a country where the Majority MAY support Russia over NATO? AND is outflanked in the sense Belarus lays to its north and Russia still has the largest Fleet in the Black Sea to the Ukraine's south? NATO had concerned about Kaliningrad when it permitted Lithuania to join, but Kaliningrad is a surrounded plot of land (much like West Berlin during the Cold War) not a part of a country that has you outflanked even before any fighting begins, such as in the case with Belarus and the Black Sea.

Sorry, NATO may NOT want the Ukraine. Remember if the Ukraine is in NATO and the Government of the Ukraine OPPOSES something NATO wants, that acts as a veto, even if the act is someplace else. Does NATO want a country that has a good chance of electing a pro-Russian government into NATO (and thus giving Russia a veto over NATO action)? I have my questions.

[joshcryer]

14. ABM defense, only reason.

And you can always bribe a government, getting around a veto is no big deal.

I doubt the majority support Russia at this point. The point was that as long as there are territorial disputes you can't join NATO. If Crimea is accepted by the elected government that would be a signal of joining NATO.

[happyslug]

21. Yes, but if Putin is smart, and I think he is, that is like putting a fix in the henhouse.

I can see Putin making every effort to get a pro-Russian government in Charge of the Ukraine, and then tell that government to accept the "Bribes" to stay in NATO, and then have that Government appoint Russian officers as the Ukrainian representatives to NATO meetings.

NATO already has two suspect members, Slovakia and Bulgaria, both have been loyal not only to the Former Soviet Union (Above being members of the Warsaw Pact), but had strong connections with Imperial Russia in the 1800s. Slovakia was technically independent during WWII (it had been part of pre war Czechoslovakia but when Hitler took over Czechoslovakia in the spring of 1939, it was declared independent but was a German Puppet state).

Please Slovakia and Bulgaria only joined NATO after what they saw NATO did to the third traditional Russia Ally in the Balkans, Serbia (and after how Russia could NOT support the Serbs) They were also needed to support NATO troops going to Afghanistan, so they obtain a good deal in 2004 when they were admitted into NATO. How loyal they are to NATO, I have no idea, but that is one of the prices you pay if you extend any alliance to far.

[joshcryer]

22. The problem is he reduced ethnic Russians in Ukraine from 17% to 12%.

The fact is the past elections have been split fairly evenly. With a 5% reduction in the pro-Russia vote it's going to be extremely difficult to get Ukraine to vote pro-Russia. I'd argue it'd be impossible since Crimea was the most pro-Russia voting bloc in the entire country.

What'll be interesting is if Crimea is allowed to vote in the coming elections. If Crimea isn't allowed to vote that would signal that Ukraine is accepting the situation. If they allow Crimea to vote, send in monitors, whatever, then it would signal that they aren't accepting it.

Ironically, Yanukovych got elected for calling for joining NATO.

[AnalystInParadise]

23. Hate to be that guy

But Slovakia was agitating to join NATO before the 1999 campaign against Serbia. I was stationed in Europe at the time at SHAPE in Belgium and the Slovaks were constant visitors to NATO HQ from 1997-2001 working on the integration plan for 2004.

[Cha]

11. So Putin isn't as sneaky as he thinks he is? Or are the ones right on DU who

think they have intimate knowledge of what he's up to or not?

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. +1

[Cha]

20. KICK!

[Bosonic]

15. Pentagon: No evidence Russian troops conducting ‘exercises’ yet

Pentagon: No evidence Russian troops conducting ‘exercises’ yet

The Pentagon said Thursday there has been no evidence yet of Russian troop exercises taking place despite claims from the Russian defense minister that they were gathering at Ukraine’s borders to do so.

“We've seen no specific indications that exercises are taking place. The way it was explained was that these were springtime exercises,” Pentagon press secretary Rear Adm. John Kirby said at a briefing on Thursday.

In the meantime, the Russian military is continuing to reinforce units on the southern and eastern borders with Ukraine, Kirby said.

“They have them in quite ... a number and in a composition that provides a lot — lots of capability,” he said. “We remain concerned about that. We're monitoring it closely.”

http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-strategy/201966-pentagon-no-evidence-russian-troops-conducting-exercises

[EX500rider]

16. Maybe Putin is timing it with the Chinese..

...who are making noise about taking some territory from the Philippines.

World could go to hell in a handbasket mighty fast if both those happened at the same time.

"Philippines: China Imposes A Blockade
March 17, 2014: China told the Philippines that the continued presence of Filipino marines on Second Thomas Reef is intolerable and that China will deal with this violation of Chinese sovereignty. This is how China warns victims that an attack is coming and the Philippines is asking the United States for some backup here. The U.S. condemned the Chinese blockade but it is unclear what more the U.S. will do. The next step appears to be a tight blockade of the Filipino garrison to starve them out, as Chinese civilian and military ships blocked two recent efforts by Filipino supply ships to deliver food and water to the small garrison on Second Thomas Reef. The supplies were eventually air dropped, but that might also face interference and all this might be preparations to an outright assault by Chinese troops. Resupply by air is expensive and uncertain during bad weather. For the last year China has been increasing pressure on the Philippines to remove small detachments of sailors and marines stationed on nine islets and reefs in the Spratly Islands. In particular the Chinese want this detachment stationed on a World War II era landing ship (the BRP Sierra Madre) removed. The Filipino navy deliberately grounded the LST on Second Thomas Reef in 1999 to provide a place for an observation team. In 2013 Chinese patrol ships came within nine kilometers of the LST, which China insists is there illegally. The Philippines warns China that it will resist any attempts to use force against the grounded ship. The initial response from China was constructing more buildings (on stilts) on nearby Mischief Reef (which is only 126 kilometers from the Philippines’ Palawan Island). Second Thomas Reef and nearby Reed Bank are 148 kilometers west of the Philippines (Palawan Island) and well within the Philippines’s EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Although the EEZ is recognized by international law (and a treaty that China signed and uses to defend waters off its own coast) China says that does not apply here because all the islets in the South China Sea belong to China and there is no room for negotiation on that point. Most countries in the region (except Japan, which would rather not dwell on this) note that this was how Japan behaved before World War II. Official U.S. policy is to try and get everyone to calm down and be less provocative. American P-3C maritime patrol aircraft regularly fly over the Spratly Islands and photograph Chinese installations and naval activities. This data is shared with the Philippines and perhaps others. China is the biggest offender in the Spratly Island disputes and shows no sign of slowing, or backing, down. Now China is warning the world that it is ready to escalate."

http://strategypage.com/qnd/phillip/20140326.aspx

[EX500rider]

17. StrategyPage also had a interesting article on the Crimea situation.

I imagine not a lot of StrategyPage fan's here but for the inside story on military matter's you go to a military analysis site, not CNN.

"Special Operations: All Glory To The 45th For Conquering Crimea
March 25, 2014: The United States recently sanctioned a number of Russian officials for their role in the Russian annexation of Crimea. One of those sanctioned was the chief of the GRU (military intelligence) who apparently sent in one of the army commando (spetsnaz) regiments into eastern Ukraine and Crimea with orders to wear civilian clothes or uniforms with no insignia, contact pro-Russians civilians (GRU maintains lists of those kinds of people) and carry out a plan to return Crimea to Russian control.

The GRU is one the three main Russian intelligence agencies. It is about the same size as the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and is responsible for conducting military related espionage operations overseas. SVR is more like the CIA. GRU is more like the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency. But the Federal Security Service (FSB), with nearly 100,000 personnel is more than twice as large as the GRU and SVR combined and is the successor to the KGB (secret police during the Soviet era). Russia also has Federal Communications & Information Agency (FAPSI), which is about half the size (in personnel) of the FSB, and is a direct equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency.

GRU apparently had a plan for taking over Crimea in a way that would cause the least amount of diplomatic and military damage. This operation got under way in late February, after the president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, who had been bribed by Russia to back away from a very popular (with most Ukrainians) economic deal with Western Europe, was run out of power by a popular uprising. The army and police told Yanukovych they could not protect him because too many Ukrainians hated him for so blatantly betraying the will of the people for the Russians. Yanukovych took the hint and headed for Russia.

Apparently several hundred members of the GRU 45th Spersnaz Regiment were then sent in, disguised as civilians, to create a “popular uprising” that would enable Russia to annex Crimea. Some of the uniformed men who then took control of Crimea were apparently hired, pro-Russia, locals, but the core of this “local militia” are men with obvious military training and who have been using those skills recently. These were the spetsnaz men and they were obviously in charge. Nearly 60 percent of Crimeans are Russian and GRU has probably been recruiting for years. Some of these locals admitted that money changed hands and they were glad to be part of the effort that returned control of Crimea to Mother Russia. When you use armed amateurs you have to expect this sort of thing and these comments did not sidetrack the takeover plan. The armed men were obviously briefed and most would not talk to reporters or even let journalists get close. But a few of these guys just could not resist a reporter with a camera crew looking for a few snappy comments for the evening news. Some of the anonymous armed men may be civilian contractors (which Russia exports to some parts of the world) and some were just pro-Russian veterans willing to take a gun and endure a bit of risk."

http://strategypage.com/htmw/htsf/articles/20140325.aspx

[okaawhatever]

19. That sounds pretty much like what i've read. It's amazing that more people don't recognize that

Russia is every bit as guilty of trying to destabilize governments as the US. Ditto China. I've read some of the reports on the Georgia conflict and they say the same thing. They had been working on that for years, too. thanks for the link.

[dilby]

18. Reminds me of some other intelligence we were getting back in 2003.

Wonder if people will start calling for a preemptive strike?