Formal countdown begins for Scottish vote that could break up United Kingdom

[Bosonic]

Source: Reuters

The formal campaign for a Scottish independence vote that could result in the break-up of the United Kingdom began on Friday, though polls currently show Scots are unlikely to vote for the demise of the 307-year-old union with England.

Scottish nationalists hope the desire for independence, historical rivalry and what they say has been centuries of mismanagement by far-off leaders in London will drive Scots to vote for secession in the Sept. 18 referendum.

Britain's main politicians have united against a breakaway, issuing pleas for unity and warnings about the economic costs of independence to the 4 million Scottish resident voters over the age of 16 who will have a vote.

Polls currently show Scots are unlikely to vote to break the union, with roughly 40 percent against independence and 30 percent in favor but there are still enough of them undecided to swing the vote.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/29/us-scotland-independence-campaign-idUSKBN0E92FK20140529

[dipsydoodle]

1. Outcome may be biased by those in Scotland who are daft enough to believe Salmond's claims

Salmond's claims that they would remain in the EU. Spain and Italy would both block an application for membership due to their own internal problems with Catalonia and Venice.

[Ghost Dog]

19. If Scotland's out, then England should also be out

of the EU.

UK would then no longer exist. You can't have a United Kingdom consisting of only one Kingdom, occupying Wales and N.I.

Everything would need to be renegotiated.

Ministry of Defence watching closely, for sure. Who would in that case patrol up there those waters?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

29. International convention would recognise rump-UK

as legal successor to the UK.

[Ghost Dog]

30. Alright. Thanks for that.

"Rump UK" is a term I find myself using recently. Thanks again.

[DonCoquixote]

2. Question

If Scotland does break away, is Scotland likely to be closer to the EU, or farther still?

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Scots are a bit keener on EU membership than Brits overall

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/OmDaily_Politics.pdf

42% to 25% to stay in rather than leave, while Britain (Northern Ireland isn't mentioned in the poll) overall was 35% in, 32% out.

However, as dipsydoodle alluded to above, Scottish membership of the EU may not be straightforward. The SNP reckons it will be able to put forward a case for being a successor state to the UK, which would mean it could stay in with the same conditions as the UK currently has (eg not adopting the Euro for an indefinite time, if it wants). However, most of the EU officials, and the UK government, reckon it would have to reapply, and that would mean committing to adopting the Euro, which hardly anyone in Scotland wants (and I'm not sure about the Schengen agreement, either). It's further complicated by all member states having a veto over new members, and Spain and Italy don't want to let Catalonia and the Venice region think they could go for independence and be an EU member too.

[Ghost Dog]

20. A very real and strong majority in Catalonia

knows what it wants.

[geek tragedy]

18. it would not be a member of the EU. It would be a nonmember state

unless all EU states consented to its admission, unlikely since Spain doesn't want the Catalans and the Basques to get any more incentives to do the same thing

[djean111]

3. Heart of the matter -

Oil-rich Scotland accounts for about one-tenth of the United Kingdom's gross domestic product, and to lose it would weaken British diplomatic clout and raise questions over the permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.

[leftyohiolib]

5. blackmail?

[djean111]

17. ?????? Blackmail? How so?

[Adrahil]

12. But Scotland's oil wealth is in decline....

... with output expected to fall to 1/3 of peak production by 2020. And with a transition AWAY from fossil fuels, is not a viable long term strategy.

[Botany]

4. Bonnie Scot Lads

[postulater]

6. Deltoid explosion underway. Cleanup in aisle 7!

[MADem]

7. I said this some time ago; I don't see it happening. nt

[McCamy Taylor]

8. Wish it would happen, but Scotland would be bankrupt so it won't.

[Crowman1979]

9. Not to mention that a larger percentage of the population in Scotland use more welfare than England,

Wales, and Northern Ireland. So if independence does happen, then get ready for crime to skyrocket.

[DeSwiss]

11. New Sco'land?

- Weel it looks lik' Lizze 'n' her brood'll need freish digs up north, eh? [font color=red]*[/font]

K&R








[font color=red]* [/font]English to Scottish Translator

[Ghost Dog]

21. Well, those English Regions look about right...

based on history. Wessex for sure.

[pampango]

13. "Scotland receives no net subsidy from the UK." Would have 95% of the UK's oil reserves.

In February 2012, the Centre for Economics and Business Research concluded that "Scotland receives no net subsidy" from the UK, as greater per capita tax generation in Scotland balanced out greater per capita public spending. More recent data, from 2012–13, show that Scotland generated 9.1% (£53.1bn; this included a geographical share of North Sea oil revenue – without it, the figures were 8.2% and £47.6bn) of the UK's tax revenues and received 9.3% (£65.2bn) of spending. Scotland's public spending deficit in 2012–13 was £12bn, a £3.5bn increase on the previous year; over the same period, the UK's deficit decreased by £2.6bn. Over the past thirty years, Scotland contributed a relative budget surplus of almost £20billion to the UK economy.

In 2012, total Scottish exports (excluding intra-UK trade) were estimated to be £26 billion, of which 59% (£15.4 billion) were attributable to manufacturing. ... Scotland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), including oil and gas produced in Scottish waters, was estimated at £150 billion for the calendar year 2012. If Scotland became independent, it would hold 95% of the UK's current oil and gas reserves if they were split geographically using a median line from the English-Scottish border. If the reserves were split by population, that figure would be reduced to 9%. Scotland also has renewable energy potential, especially in tidal energy and offshore wind.

Scottish waters consist of a large sector of the North Atlantic and the North Sea, containing the largest oil reserves in the European Union. This has given Aberdeen, the third-largest city in Scotland, the title of Europe's oil capital.

Scotland's legal system has remained separate from those of England and Wales and Northern Ireland, and Scotland constitutes a distinct jurisdiction in public and private law. The continued existence of legal, educational and religious institutions distinct from those in the remainder of the UK have all contributed to the continuation of Scottish culture and national identity since the 1707 Union. In 1999, a devolved legislature, the Scottish Parliament, was reconvened with authority over many areas of home affairs following a referendum in 1997. In May 2011, the Scottish National Party won an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament. As a result, a referendum on independence will take place on 18 September 2014.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland#Economy_and_infrastructure

I hope the vote goes against separation from the UK. Scotland has a lot of autonomy already.

I wonder if the UKIP folks see the irony of some in Scotland wanting to leave the UK, while UKIP wants the UK to leave the EU. OTOH, such an event would lead to greater "ethnic purity" in Scotland and England (assuming Scots consider themselves a distinct ethnic group?). And "ethnic purity" is a concept that any good conservative can get behind.

[Ghost Dog]

23. It's not going to be an 'ethnic' vote.

Whoever you are, wherever you came from, if you're resident in Scotland on the day of the vote, you have a vote.

Scottish people non-resident in Scotland will have no vote.

(Me myself: My mother's family is from lowland Scotland. My father's from industrial West Yorkshire.

I live in Spain (Canary Islands resident)).

[cosmicone]

14. This would never happen and less likely to happen as time passes

All the Asian and East-European immigrant citizens of Scotland would vote against it because they want to be citizens of the UK which is more prestigious. They consider being citizens of Scotland a step down.

Since the immigrants constitute 15% of the vote, die hard Scots get outnumbered.

The same thing happens in Quebec separation votes in Canada -- the die hard francophils get outnumbered because non-french-speaking immigrants think it would be less prestigious to be citizens of Quebec than of Canada as a whole.

The same dynamic is at play in a different manner in the US as immigrants despise the tea party far more than the average native born Americans.

[bossy22]

16. bigger in this case is better

It's pretty much the whole logic of the European Union formation. All these relatively "little" countries banded together to form a common government and goals with a much louder voice than they had independently.

[Nye Bevan]

15. Would Queen Elizabeth be the head of state of an independent Scotland? (nt)

[muriel_volestrangler]

22. yes (nt)

[Ghost Dog]

24. In the first instance, yes.

Until Scots vote to eliminate the Monarchy and organise a Republic (like Eire).

[muriel_volestrangler]

25. There are no plans at all to consider that

An independent Scotland would keep the British pound, the queen and remain in the European Union but have its own defense force and collect its own taxes, First Minister Alex Salmond said on Tuesday.

In a 670-page blueprint aimed at convincing Scots they should vote on September 18 next year to end a 306-year union with England, Salmond said there would be no need to increase taxes if Scotland broke away.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/us-scotland-independence-salmond-idUSBRE9AP0CL20131126

[Ghost Dog]

26. Ok. But a friend of mine with a house here, but still resident in Glasgow,

and a one-time leading-light in Scottish Labour, says she can see such a possibility, if the independence vote wins, in the not-so distant future.

And I say I'd like to see an English Republic (or Regional Republics) too...

BTW, is the Pound Sterling more English or Scottish, by origen? The Irish Punt floated quite well (about 92p English if I remember well) until the Euro was chosen.

... --> I expect a negative vote also.

[muriel_volestrangler]

27. Sterling is basically English in origin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_coinage#Union_of_the_Crowns_.28from_1603.29

Not surprising, since England has always had a significantly larger population.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

28. Strong independence movements are usually a product of strong regional economies.

Catalonia's is strong not only because of the language but because that region contributes significantly more to the Spanish state than it gets back. Ditto Venice and environs, and really all of north Italy vs the south. Scotland may run a small surplus vis-a-vis the rest of the UK, but really, ex oil, they just don't have the relative economic heft to generate the kind of resentment that gets you a really strong independence movement, and there aren't any transcendental cultural/religious differences with the rest of the UK that would do it either. Between all that and the fact they already enjoy a bit of autonomy, no reason to go.
They'll stay.