An important round-table discussion was held yesterday evening (Monday, September 1st), in Paris, under the auspices of the Franco-Russian Dialogue Association, to attempt to assess the political solutions to the Ukrainian crisis, and to exit from the spiral of escalation. This round-table discussion brought together leading Russian politicians and representatives of diverse French political forces, of the business community (Total, GDF-Suez), and of the cultural and scientific communities. ...
Possible Solutions
It is possible to make several observations here regarding the dynamics of the crisis. The Ukrainian crisis is in fact a product of the destruction of the framework of international law that we have experienced since the middle of the 1990s and which manifested itself around the subjects of Kosovo (1998-99), of Iraq (2003)—the magnitude of whose consequences are today being measured—and, more recently, of Libya. Today we are tasting the bitter fruits of this destruction of the rules of international law; a destruction for which the United States and NATO bear the responsibility. It is not possible to find a framework for resolving this crisis without rules that are acknowledged by all. International law is still based on two rules, which are profoundly contradictory: respect for the sovereignty of states AND the right of peoples to determine for themselves. Mediation between these two principles has been dramatically and permanently weakened by the actions of NATO states and the United States since the end of the 1990s. It is these mediations that we must rebuild. It has thus gone from a crisis internal to Ukraine to an international crisis, and this largely due to the degree of violence employed by the government in Kiev. On this exact point, there is a new contradiction between the position adopted regarding Libya, where the protection of the population justified a foreign intervention, and the Ukraine. This should be borne in mind.
This begs the question of an eventual ceasefire, and of its guarantees. A ceasefire is needed in the shortest time-frame. The continuation of combat can only make even more insurmountable the wall of hatred in the Ukraine, and make more difficult the political solution to the crisis that must nevertheless surely be found. It is clear that what was possible at the beginning of June is no longer possible. The longer hostilities last, the more difficult will it be to arrive at a political solution. Hence, France and Germany should exert strong pressure on the Kiev government in order to constrain it to accept a cessation of hostilities, dependent on Russia putting pressure on the insurgents so that this cessation is accepted. From this perspective, joint action with Russia is required, whether or not this pleases some. This ceasefire should be verified and supervised. This will thus require troops to be interposed between Kiev’s army and the insurgents’ forces. We have to start thinking about this question, knowing that Russian troops will be unacceptable to Kiev, as would be those from NATO states and the EU with the insurgents.
This political solution will be difficult to find. Mr. Naryshkin alluded to the “asymmetric federalism” that exists in Canada for Québec.iii It is a potential solution, but alas not likely. Another solution would be that of an “autonomous region” or of an “autonomous Republic”, in the framework of the Ukrainian state, on the model of Kurdistan in present-day Iraq. Beyond these solutions, the only possible outcome would be that of independence unrecognised by the international community, as is the case with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The solutions of an “asymmetric federalism” or “autonomous Republic” must be guaranteed by both the states of the EU and by Russia. We will, once again, have to work with the Russian government. However, we are measuring what was lost when Kiev officials refused to organise elections for a constituent assembly in order to rewrite their country’s constitution and put in place a federal system.
Once this political solution is found, the economic viability of Ukraine, and of the autonomous regions of the country’s East, must be ensured. This requires a close look at the dynamic of regional development, once the tasks of reconstructing infrastructure and buildings destroyed during bombardment by Kiev’s Army are completed. These tasks also involve funding, and agreement must be reached on who will be the donor countries. To leave the burden solely to Russia would be, from a political standpoint, a tragic mistake, since this would mean we abdicate the opportunity of influencing the insurgents’ leaders. Again, it will require agreement between the different involved parties, including Russia and the EU.
http://slavyangrad.org/2014/09/03/what-does-russia-want/
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