World population may hit 11 billion by 2100

[FLPanhandle]

Source: Yahoo

Washington (AFP) - The world population may grow larger than previously estimated, reaching 11 billion people by century's end, according to a UN-led analysis published Thursday.

That would mean two billion more people on Earth than expected by 2100, largely due to high birth rates in Africa, said the report in the US journal Science.

"The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around seven billion, would go up to nine billion and level off or probably decline," said co-author Adrian Raftery, professor of statistics and of sociology at the University of Washington.

"We found there's a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century," he added. The study is uses the most recent United Nations population data, released in July, and employs Bayesian statistics to combine all available information to generate better predictions.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/world-population-may-hit-11-billion-2100-211340940.html

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I'm so glad I'll be long dead by then.

[IDemo]

1. Maybe if people can adapt to a locust and jellyfish diet

I very strongly doubt we will ever even approach this number.

[Plucketeer]

8. And your proposition

depends on there being "stuffs" for those two critters to eat. Like us, if they don't eat - they don't exist. I have to wonder if this study AT ALL factored in climate changes that are clearly happening and have been for decades or more.

[Amonester]

2. At the current rate (and its scientifically-predicted increase to self-anihilation levels...)

Won't even get World population to 2100.

This rather "small" planet will make sure those who will barely survive will live a very "sad" life...

[FLPanhandle]

4. In the meantime we will decimate every species to extinction

It's going to be ugly. Seas wiped out of life, forests gone, diets restricted...

[Amonester]

6. Perhaps also the beginning of a new....

ICE AGE, a new VENUS or MARS (clone).

Have a nice life, kids!

Megatons of released METHANE tend to do these unconvenient stuffs...

[Auggie]

3. That's provided it isn't slowed by climate change famine

[Demeter]

12. Ebola....

[Hari Seldon]

5. World Population may heat 100,000 by 2030

I have a feeling I will be long dead by then too...

[Orrex]

7. All of that extra mass will probably knock the planet out of orbit.

Science!

[font color="white"][font size=10]Yes, I'm kidding.[/font][/font]

[madville]

21. If too many people are on

One side of the world, like mostly in Africa and Asia, we very well could tip over.

[Orsino]

9. Dick Cheney will save us.

From his biovat, he will just order a few extra wars if necessary.

[Bearware]

10. Actually I think we are very close to peak population

I am expecting earth to lose it's first billion people from the population level in the next 3-4 decades. Ebola might start the ball rolling but time is running out for plagues because biology & medicine are advancing so fast.

Climate change (particularly causing famine whether from extreme weather or rainfall changes) is the biggie but warfare could accelerate it significantly. Sea level rise will be another huge biggie down the road a bit.

[GliderGuider]

11. That's my take on it as well. I don't think we'll pass 8 billion

I expect peak population by 2030, largely due to climate-induced food supply disruptions, a collapse of the global financial system, perhaps a pandemic, and a complex system failure to be named later...

[NCarolinawoman]

14. Also, poisoning of aquifers and rivers leading to

"water water everywhere, and not a drop to drink".

Along with droughts caused by people who just have to have green lawns in arid regions, green green golf courses and lots of water to put out man made forest fires.

[Reter]

19. I think peak would be more like 100 billion

I could be wrong though.

[Systematic Chaos]

20. You don't get to make a claim that patently ridiculous without explaining HOW.

So, we're going to increase our numbers to roughly fourteen times what they currently are...exactly how?

How will they be fed, clothed, sheltered and otherwise all be provided for with any quality of life whatsoever?

I'm all eyes, dude/dudette. Type away.

[MisterP]

13. but that'll mean twice the workers and an economy twice as good as in the 90s! :crazy:

[CanonRay]

15. I've read that the planet can sustainably support about 1 billion

We have a problem here, ladies and gentlemen. Somebody's got to go or we're going to swamp the lifeboat we're on.

[AverageJoe90]

16. I'm not so sure of that, to be honest.

This seems to assume that high birth rates in Africa will not experience a significant decline.....which seems unlikely. I'll go with the past estimate of 9 billion for now.

[muriel_volestrangler]

18. But the point is they've been looking at the African birth rates, and the expected decline

hasn't happened at the rate that had been expected. The AFP article on Yahoo doesn't make that clear, but try this:

In most parts of Asia, Europe and the Americas fertility rates — the average number of children women give birth to throughout their lives — have dropped in the past few decades to 1.5–2. Ageing nations such as Germany and Japan are facing severe economic and social-welfare challenges, as expenses such as pensions and health care eat up an ever larger proportion of funds. Low birth rates are beginning to raise concerns even in countries that until not long ago had high fertility rates, such as Turkey and Iran.

Many demographers expected that similar trends would catch on in Africa, but the fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa is still at 4.6, in part because of a lack of access to contraceptives.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/world-population-unlikely-to-stop-growing-this-century/

or:

Sub-saharan Africa is set to be by far the fastest growing region, with population rocketing from 1bn today to between 3.5bn and 5bn in 2100. Previously, the fall in fertility rates that began in the 1980s in many African countries was expected to continue but the most recent data shows this has not happened. In countries like Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation, the decline has stalled completely with the average woman bearing six children. Nigeria’s population is expected to soar from 200m today to 900m by 2100.

The cause of the stalled fertility rate is two-fold, said Raftery: a failure to meet the need for contraception and a continued preference for large families. “The unmet need for contraception - at 25% of women - has not changed in for 20 years,” he said. The preference for large families is linked to lack of female education which limits women’s life choices, said Raftery. In Nigeria, 28% of girls still do not complete primary education.

Another key factor included for the first time was new data on the HIV/AIDS epidemic showing it is not claiming as many lives as once anticipated. “Twenty years ago the impact on population was absolutely gigantic,” Raftery said. “Now the accessibility of antiretroviral drugs is much greater and the epidemic appeared to have passed its peak and was not quite as bad as was feared.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/18/world-population-new-study-11bn-2100

[Aristus]

17. Goddammit, Duggers! Invest in some condoms, will ya?

I guess Africans want to breed themselves into mass starvation, but at least there won't be gay people running around Uganda...