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brooklynite

(93,850 posts)
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 10:48 AM Sep 2014

Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million in 4 Months, C.D.C. Estimates

Source: New York Times

Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling.

In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps following its current trajectory, without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported.

The report does not include figures for Guinea because case counts there have gone up and down in ways that cannot be reliably modeled.

In the best-case model — which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission — the epidemic in both countries would be “almost ended” by Jan. 20, the report said. It showed the proportion of patients now in such settings as about 18 percent in Liberia and 40 percent in Sierra Leone.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/health/ebola-cases-could-reach-14-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?_r=0



A friend, who's one of the top journalists on the subject, says this boils down to whether authorities can keep the outbreak to "first generation" cases. If the newly sick start to infect others during the incubation period, it will be a lot harder to manage.
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Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million in 4 Months, C.D.C. Estimates (Original Post) brooklynite Sep 2014 OP
Its the overall sad effect of poor education dipsydoodle Sep 2014 #1
Still no mention of recombinance. FourScore Sep 2014 #2
I've read that all over the web, but what are the chances of that? CrispyQ Sep 2014 #3
Quite low. Here's a good article from Scientific American about it... Turborama Sep 2014 #4
K&R! smirkymonkey Sep 2014 #5

dipsydoodle

(42,239 posts)
1. Its the overall sad effect of poor education
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 11:02 AM
Sep 2014

local beliefs and customs whatever. Difficult to change as such with such short notice.

CrispyQ

(36,225 posts)
3. I've read that all over the web, but what are the chances of that?
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 06:32 PM
Sep 2014

I'm not being snarky, I just don't know anything about these things.

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