Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million in 4 Months, C.D.C. Estimates
Source: New York Times
Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling.
In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps following its current trajectory, without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported.
The report does not include figures for Guinea because case counts there have gone up and down in ways that cannot be reliably modeled.
In the best-case model which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission the epidemic in both countries would be almost ended by Jan. 20, the report said. It showed the proportion of patients now in such settings as about 18 percent in Liberia and 40 percent in Sierra Leone.
Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/health/ebola-cases-could-reach-14-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?_r=0
A friend, who's one of the top journalists on the subject, says this boils down to whether authorities can keep the outbreak to "first generation" cases. If the newly sick start to infect others during the incubation period, it will be a lot harder to manage.
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)local beliefs and customs whatever. Difficult to change as such with such short notice.
FourScore
(9,704 posts)Once ebola becomes airborne, it will become overnight a pandemic.
CrispyQ
(36,225 posts)I'm not being snarky, I just don't know anything about these things.
Turborama
(22,109 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts):kick: