In This High-Stakes Poker Game, Vladimir Putin Holds Most Of The Cards

[Purveyor]

War against Putin is rightly off the table, while truly crippling sanctions are also unlikely to happen, as they could harm a sclerotic Europe at least as much as Russia

By John C Hulsman
8:03PM BST 01 Sep 2014

Just 10 days ago it looked as if the Kremlin-inspired revolt in eastern Ukraine was sputtering to a halt. The Ukrainian army – reinfused with a new sense of purpose following the election of President Petro Poroshenko – had decisively turned the tide, all but finishing off the ragtag, Russian-backed rebels. Suddenly, the pressure was entirely on the Russian president. In poker terms, he either had to fold or up the ante.

Predictably, Putin doubled down, sending in at least 1,000 regular Russian army troops, more than 100 tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles. A further 20,000 soldiers remain menacingly poised on the Russian-Ukraine border. This has been enough to dramatically turn the strategic tide.

The separatists, now bolstered by Russian troops, have managed to open a second front in the south east of Ukraine, possibly creating a swathe of territory linking the recently annexed Crimea with Russia proper. Momentum – so hard to quantify but so important to understand – now lies with the Kremlin.

Like all good poker players, Putin waited for his opponents’ emotional response to subside, hoping to work out what cards they actually hold. The West did not disappoint him. Military action has already (and rightfully) been ruled out by the major Western states; that leaves only full-bore sanctions. The European Union has given Russia one week to reverse its policy over Ukraine, or else further sanctions are to be implemented.

And then, in a move that must have made the ice-cold Russian president smile, European diplomats began to meekly walk back from their threat. Chancellor Angela Merkel herself pointed out that the “new” sanctions are not really new at all, but merely build on what had already come before: certain loopholes will be tightened on sanctions aimed at Russia’s financial, defence and energy sectors. It is clear these won’t amount to comprehensive Iran-style strictures. Rather they’re merely a tidying up of sanctions that have already been imposed. Rather lamely, European sources noted that it could be weeks (well into October) before even this would happen. Europe has made it very clear that it’s bluffing.

more...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/11068251/In-this-high-stakes-poker-game-Vladimir-Putin-holds-most-of-the-cards.html

[jberryhill]

1. everyone holds the same number of cards in a poker game

Perhaps gin rummy?

[pscot]

2. Putin has better information

He knows what we're doing and he knows what he's doing. That's twice what we know.

[HoosierCowboy]

3. That's because...

...it was predicted in the 90's when the old USSR dissolved that the Russians in the breakaways would suffer in their new nations and that the Mother Bear would guard her cubs.
Everything about the Ukraine campaign suggests long term planning. The positioning of militias in Russian majority areas, the rapid response of the Russian Army sure look practiced in contrast to usual old Soviet style bungling of the past.
This is a conflict that Putin has to prevail in to get his bones...

[geek tragedy]

4. He wins part of Ukraine, he loses Russia's ability to be anything more than

China's gas station and hired muscle.

[Purveyor]

5. Perhaps but maybe not a bad deal afterall. Pending. LOL. eom