Ukraine's Economy Is A Disaster. Its Demography Is Even Worse
It appears as if Ukraine might have reached a deal that will give it sufficient financial breathing room. According to The Moscow Times a plan proposed by Ukraine’s creditors, who have previously indicated an almost total unwillingness to accept any substantial restructuring of the country’s foreign debt, would give the country $15.8 billion in total savings. This is actually marginally more than the IMF had recommend in the bailout it orchestrated back in March, and is a lot better than what seemed like Ukraine would be able to get just a few weeks ago. It still might not be enough for Ukraine to avoid disaster, the country’s financing needs have grown as the economy has fared far worse than initially expected, but it’s a rare bit of a good news. Things could conceivably stabilize.
Whatever the status of Ukraine’s economy, though, and even with if this debt deal is finalized it will still be on very precarious ground, its demographics are in a far more parlous state. According to the latest data from Ukraine’s committee on state statistics and Rosstat, which has taken over responsibility for monitoring Crimea’s population in the aftermath of its annexation by Russia, Ukraine’s population including Crimea and Sevastopol declined by more than 250,000 between 2014 and 2015.
The loss of population, at least officially, doesn’t really have anything to do with the ongoing fighting in the Donbass. Multitudinous news reports attest to the enormous numbers of internally displaced people in addition to tens of thousands who have fled into Russia or other neighboring countries. However, official data show that Ukraine registered an inflow of migrants in 2014 and in the first quarter of 2015.
Now the idea that Ukraine has experienced positive international net migration in the middle of a war seems absurdly over-optimistic. I certainly am not endorsing it! Whatever estimates the authorities are using almost certainly need to be updated. The point, however, is that even if you completely ignore the impact of the ongoing war Ukraine’s demography is deteriorating rapidly from an already poor level. The death rate has actually been down marginally in 2015, but the birth rate is plummeting. Through the first four months of 2015, births were off by more than 12% from their 2014 level.
Why is this important? Why should anyone give a hoot about Ukraine’s birth rate or its population trends? Well it matters because the West has set itself the task of underwriting Ukraine’s reform efforts. All kinds of commitments (primarily rhetorical but some financial) are being made to assist Kiev’s “European choice.”
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2015/05/30/ukraines-economy-is-a-disaster-its-demography-is-even-worse/
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