Vox: House Democrats just derailed Obama's trade agenda

[villager]

<snip>

The House was trying to pass Senate legislation in two parts

The Senate passed trade legislation last month that does two big things. First, it grants Obama Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which guarantees that any trade deals he negotiates get a prompt up-or-down vote in Congress. The White House has said this tool, also known as "fast track," is essential for getting his Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiated. That's because America's trading partners will be more willing to put their best offers on the table if they know it has a good chance of approval in Congress.

The Senate bill also included an extension of trade adjustment assistance (TAA). This is a package of subsidies that help workers who have been displaced by trade. Freer trade is good for the US economy as a whole but it can hurt some workers in particular industries. TAA programs try to cushion the blow by offering these workers financial support, training, relocation assistance, and other help in learning new skills and finding a new job.

OBAMA HAS BEEN SEEKING FAST TRACK AUTHORITY FOR YEARS

Most Democrats like TAA but are skeptical of TPA. Most Republicans like TPA but are skeptical of TAA. So Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) decided to hold two separate votes. First he held a vote on TAA, counting on House Democrats — with aggressive lobbying from President Obama — to get it over the finish line. Then he planned to hold a second vote on TPA, relying on Republican votes to pass it.

But House Democrats clearly understood that a vote for TAA was really a vote for TPA and — therefore — a vote for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. And most Democrats oppose the TPP, so they voted against TAA.

The vote is a huge setback for Obama's trade agenda

In theory, President Obama could push forward with his trade agenda. The House proceeded to vote on TPA, and will try to craft a compromise package with the Senate. And Obama will probably press forward with negotiations without fast track authority, hoping he can convince Congress to support the deal when it's finished.

But both of these strategies are going to be challenging.

HOUSE DEMOCRATS CLEARLY UNDERSTOOD THAT A VOTE FOR TAA WAS REALLY A VOTE FOR TPA AND THE TPP

Obama has been seeking fast track authority for years, and Republican leaders in Congress have been fighting for months to get it for him. This week, the president has lobbied heavily to garner support for the TAA bill. If a majority of the House can't be persuaded to support the package after all that effort, it's doubtful that it will do so in the future.

And TAA was essential to getting sufficient support from Senate Democrats to overcome a filibuster, so it's not clear how Congressional leaders will get Senate approval without it.

Meanwhile, Obama's trade struggles in Congress will weaken his bargaining position abroad. The leaders of other TPP countries such as Japan, Australia, and Chile will have to make politically costly concessions in order to conclude the TPP negotiations. They're only going to be willing to do that if they think there's a good chance that the deal will actually be ratified.

Today's failed TAA vote is a clear signal that Congressional Democrats are staunchly opposed to the TPP, and
that Congress as a whole is skeptical of Obama's trade agenda. That means that the negotiations are more likely to break down, as countries become less willing to make politically costly concessions for a deal that might never take effect anyway.

<snip>

http://www.vox.com/2015/6/12/8773145/democrat-tpp-obama-fail

[BlueStreak]

1. AWESOME !!! Now let's force Hillary and the others to take a stand

Remember this is a REPUBLICAN bill. Shame on Obama for pushing this. Maybe he will not go back to his corporatist sponsors and tell them "Hey guys, I gave it my best shot. There is nothing more I can do. Unless, of course, you want to open this up to a transparent thing where the public can see what you are trying to do and have a debate on these issues? Shall we do that fellas?"

Watch the cockroaches scramble for the crack in the wall then.

[villager]

2. the next week or two will be most interesting indeed

Especially, as you say, in the matter of taking a stand as election politics begins to ramp up...

[BlueStreak]

9. And I will give Hillary some credit for her position today

It was a bit too cautious, but considering it came from a Clinton, her position on the TPP fast track was more courageous than I expected. Good for her. Let's hope she remembers it.

[n2doc]

3. President Obama and his Republican allies aren't giving up.

from the article:

President Obama and his Republican allies aren't giving up. They held a vote on TPA right after the failure of TAA, passing it by a vote of 219-211. And the House is expected to hold another vote on TAA next week. If that fails, then Obama might try to pass the House bill — without TAA — through the Senate.

[jeff47]

4. Giant missing hole in this article:

The Senate bill funds TAA by cutting Medicare.

If TAA passed, every Democratic representative that voted "Yes" on TAA would see this ad in their district: "Representative _____ voted to steal money from sick elderly people and give it to lazy moochers".

This wasn't just about the TPA and TPP. It was also about rejecting the poison pill Senate Republicans put in the TAA in order to fuck over Democrats who vote for TAA.

The "plan" from Obama and company was to pass yet another bill that undid the Medicare cuts. First, that bill may not pass. And boondoggles like the sequester demonstrate these kinds of fixes can't be guaranteed by the leadership. Second, even if it did pass, the explanation about why that ad is technically true but overall inaccurate doesn't fit well in an opposing TV ad.

[fasttense]

5. Obama played this same game when he fought Dems to

continue the bush tax cuts for the uber rich. The Dems ended up losing a lot in the next election. Obama wants what Obama wants no matter what it costs the Democratic Party.

[geek tragedy]

6. No need to lie about his record on taxes.

He fought the Republicans to raise taxes on the highest earners while preserving tax cuts for middle income earners.

[fasttense]

7. I'm not lying and I could alert on you for calling me a liar.

I'm not going to alert on you yet.

Obama could have let the bush tax cuts for the uber rich end by doing nothing. Instead he fought tooth and nail with his lame duck congress to extend the bush tax give aways for 2 full years. That was when he lost most of the base.

Then he turns around and takes back the tax cuts for the middle class and working poor by increasing Social Security taxes back up to Raygun levels.

I didn't see him fighting for another 2 year extension on those Social Security tax cuts. That tax increase really hurt a lot of people because it came just when working people were trying to get their finances together after the Bush Great Recession.

No need for hiding Obama's tax record. It's all there for anyone to see.

[geek tragedy]

8. You've pretty much misstated everything.

The tax bill was passed with the VAST majority of Democrats voting for it.

Bernie Sanders voted for it.

http://news.yahoo.com/senate-roll-call-fiscal-cliff-deal-223904685.html

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/fsical-cliff-roll-call-vote-85660.html

http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2012/roll659.xml

It's flat out dishonest to accuse him of increasing Social Security taxes. The payroll tax holiday was HIS idea. It was a temporary stimulus measure that the Republicans refused to extend. Long-term it had to be temporary, since that is how Social Security is funded.

http://www.npr.org/2013/01/01/168417033/cliff-deal-would-end-payroll-tax-holiday

CORNISH: John, unemployment is still over 7.5 percent, why pull the plug on the payroll tax holiday now?

YDSTIE: Well, President Obama did propose extending it in his first offer during negotiations with House Speaker Boehner a couple weeks ago. But it came off the table relatively quickly. One reason is that it's adding to the deficit, which makes Republicans nervous. Also, some Democrats think the payroll tax holiday could undermine the Social Security system. Up to now, the government has been transferring money from its big general fund to the Social Security trust fund to make up for the money being lost to the tax break.

Anyone with google can tell which of us is telling the truth.