What Happens If Bernie Wins Iowa AND New Hampshire?

[Gawdless Pinko Lib]

By Josh Vorhees

Bernie Sanders has a legitimate shot to sweep the first two nominating contests of 2016. That’s the big takeaway from the latest polling from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, which found Sanders and Hillary Clinton running neck and neck in Iowa and New Hampshire with three weeks to go until the former and four until the latter.

A Sanders sweep—possible, albeit still not probable at this point—would fundamentally alter the Democratic race. In the span of eight days, the self-styled democratic socialist would be transformed from establishment gadfly to real-life Democratic challenger. The political press, long desperate for intrigue and uncertainty in a race that has so far been devoid of it, would shower Sanders with attention and praise while simultaneously questioning whether Hillary Clinton was doomed to suffer the same fate she did in 2008 at the hands of another unlikely challenger. (Expect every talking head on cable TV to remind you in unison that only once in modern political history has a nominee from either party failed to win either of the first two states—a stat that sounds rather ominous until you consider the non-incumbent sample size.) Bernie, in turn, would see a bump in the polls and an uptick in his fundraising, all at a time when many would-be primary voters are paying attention to the 2016 campaign for the first time. All this would be a big deal for Sanders.

What would not change, though, is that Clinton would remain the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination.

Even if Hillary staggers out of New Hampshire with her second loss in as many contests, she’ll still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment that won’t soon forget that her challenger is not technically even a part of the Democratic Party. An unexpected loss in Iowa and a less surprising one in New Hampshire wouldn’t change that.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/11/bernie_sanders_could_win_iowa_and_new_hampshire.html

Something of a bait-and-switch piece, but I found it interesting enough to post anyway. Besides, Hillary might still win the nomination, even though Bernie now has the wind at his back.

[DJ13]

1. ".....she’ll still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today"

No, she would lose her biggest advantage...... the ability of her friends in the MSM to completely ignore Bernie and his policy positions.

That will be a game changer she wont be able to overcome.

[Cartoonist]

2. And those people who say Bernie can't win

Will just have to stfu.

[DJ13]

4. Yep!

[Warpy]

3. The media won't continue to ignore him

but his new name will be "socialistberniesanders." Bet on it.

[Half-Century Man]

5. It takes me 2 weeks to get that stupid grin off my face.

I would be able to giggle through a tax audit

[greendog]

6. Headline: "Clinton Trounces O'Malley, Sanders expected to lose in South Carolina".

[Kalidurga]

7. That sounds about right

And when Bernie wins big on Super Tuesday, it will be all about Hillary surging from behind for the win.

[msongs]

8. win two tiny hugely white states with populations +/- half of Houston metro area alone nt

[left-of-center2012]

9. Debbie Wasserman Schultz will be pissed

She wants a Cabinet post in Hillary's reign.

[Cal33]

11. She might even be out of poliics altogether in January, 2017.

[Gothmog]

10. Nate Silver agrees with this analysis

Even if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, it is unlikely that he will be the nominee http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19....

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

Iowa and New Hampshire do not represent the demographics of the Democratic Party and so will not help sanders

[Cal33]

12. Western Illinois University's prediction is: Bernie beats Jeb by a landslide in Nov. 2016. Have

you already forgotten?

http://www.inquisitr.com/2636423/bernie-sanders-will-win-the-election-wiu-poll-2016-predictions-socialist-president-lose-to-hillary-clinton/

[Gothmog]

13. That mock election is a joke done by idiots who do not understand the DNC rules

Under the rules for the Democratic Party, delegates are awarded proportionately. This silly but ignorant poll has Sanders winning 100% of the delegates in most states



The only way that a candidate can win 100% of the delegates in a state is if no other candidate gets 15% either in a district or statewide. The idiots who did this mock election do not understand the rules of the Democratic Primary

This mock election was a joke and is less reliable than hypothetical match up polls

[Cal33]

14. Well, we'll know -- possibly by Super Tuesday -- whether Bernie or Hillary will win the Primaries

[Gothmog]

15. I believe that this contest will be over on Super Tuesday