There Is a Small but Real Possibility That Brexit Will Never Happen

[Night Watchman]

Joshua Keating, Slate...

For all that Thursday night’s Brexit vote was a historic rebuke of the European Union, nothing is actually different today. Britain is still a member of the EU, and will be for some time. And while there’s probably too much political momentum to stop this process now that it’s rolling, there’s a small, but not trivial, chance that the Brexit might not happen at all.

The referendum wasn’t legally binding, just advisory. Technically, the British government doesn’t have to do anything, though it’s obviously under an enormous amount of political pressure to get things moving. The first concrete result of the vote will be the ignominious resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron, who campaigned for the “Remain” side, in opposition to much of his own party, and lost. Cameron said today that he will leave 10 Downing Street before the Conservative Party conference in October, and will leave the task of beginning negotiations on withdrawal to his successor. (Cameron had previously said that withdrawal would begin immediately after the vote if “Leave” won, but that seems to have been a bluff.)

How the Brexit will go down is a little unclear—after all, no country has ever tried to leave the EU before. (Yes, yes, Greenland. I see you. Not the same thing.) The mechanism by which countries leave the EU is Article 50 of the 2007 Lisbon Treaty. Under Article 50, once a member state notifies the European Council of its intention to withdraw, it has two years to negotiate the terms of that withdrawal and hammer out a new relationship with the EU on issues like trade and immigration. Once the two years are up, the treaties between the EU and the country are severed, whether an agreement has been reached or not.

Could leaders in Brussels find a way to fudge this deadline? Sure, why the hell not. But once Article 50 is invoked, the process is irreversible. The U.K. can’t back out. The terms of Britain’s exit, though not the exit itself, will be subject to veto by all 27 of its very cranky EU counterparts.

As a man of Scots-Irish ancestry, I hope the Brexit does occur, the sooner the better. Screw YOU, Welfare-Queen Windsors!

[DavidDvorkin]

1. The Windsors won't suffer

But millions of ordinary people will.

[libdem4life]

2. They might be a tad embarassed and have a second

annus horribilis.

[DavidDvorkin]

3. More like a mildly unpleasant month or two.

[libdem4life]

4. Oh darn, I don't know how to say that in Latin. Thus, the

extent of my vocabulary.

Seriously, however, I think it's pretty well known that the 1%ers will do just fine...especially the Royals. It's also possible that after the shock and awe fade a bit, it won't be as drastic as it appears. One can hope.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. I don't know how to say that in Latin, either

Or I would have, just to show off.

When Elizabeth used the phrase, she was playing off the term Annus Mirabilis, used during the 7 Years' War to refer to a year when Britain's fortunes changed dramatically. Maybe that's the only reason she knew the Latin!