Democrats Dont Need Trumps Voters To Retake The House

[SunSeeker]

Democrats Don’t Need Trump’s Voters To Retake The House

By Harry Enten

Stop me if you’ve seen a headline (or five) that proclaims something along the lines of: “Most Trump voters still support Trump.” Typically, the article includes quotes from Trump voters in Pennsylvania or Michigan. Sometimes it revolves around polling showing people don’t “regret” voting for Trump. The takeaway is usually: Trump still has the support of his base, which means Democrats haven’t cracked the Trump nut yet.

But here’s the thing: Democrats don’t need to crack that nut by 2018; Trump can hang on to most — if not all — of his base, and Democrats could still clean up in the midterm elections. Checking in with Trump’s supporters is worthwhile. But don’t mistake their level of satisfaction for a political prediction.

Let’s start with the basic fact that Trump won just 45.9 percent of the vote in 2016. That doesn’t make his victory any less legitimate — winning (the Electoral College) with less than a majority is still winning — but Trump has a smaller base than every president elected since 1972, except for Bill Clinton in 1992. Trump voters are not a majority.

More importantly for the sake of 2018, they don’t represent the majority of voters in the majority of congressional districts. Trump won more than 50 percent in 205 of 435 districts. If House Republicans won every district where Trump won a majority in 2016 but lost every other one, Democrats would control 230 seats. Among seats won by a Republican in 2016, Trump fell short of a majority in 40 districts. Democrats need to win only 24 of those to win control of the House.

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-dont-need-trumps-voters-to-retake-the-house/?ex_cid=story-facebook

[Vogon_Glory]

1. I like the thought that there may be enough Democratic voters to take back the House

Even without any Trump voters, but I wouldn't mind at least a leavening of former Trumpies who, horror-struck, saw what Trump and his Rethugly friends were trying to do between this January and November 2018 and then had their come-to (the real)-Jesus moment and swell our ranks.

Unlike some of us here, I think at least some, though perhaps not a majority, of the people who voted for Thump might wise up.

[ATL Ebony]

2. They were only 1/3 of the voters (and getting smaller daily) so they're not controlling anything

Silly morans, Hillary won the popular vote -- you'd think they knew that by now. #45 was elected by the EC so I hope they don't really think we need them -- we prefer informed and thinking constituents. Besides, they wouldn't like it over here, not enough phobias for them.

[BigmanPigman]

3. This is why it's so important to support Indivisible and similar groups.

They are working very hard to stop gerrymandering, getting grassroots candidates into local races, etc and for little or no money. They are the true patriots.