BTRTN: Trump's Bump: Context for His Modestly Improving Approval Rating

[tgards79]

Sure, Trump got a bump, but what does it really mean?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-context-for-trumps-modestly.html

"This chart also demonstrates the trivial nature of Trump’s recent rise. While the rise is welcome news for his Administration, for sure, his lowest lows and highest highs are both the lowest of any recent president over their first 500 days or so. His current numbers – in the low 40’s – are in a range that signal very bad news in the mid-terms, if he fails to push further north. And the same for his reelection hopes. The “high” mark of 45% represents trouble for him and is perhaps the most important number. Unlike each of his most recent predecessors, Trump has at no point had even half of the country on his side at any time. His predecessor all had a strong majority behind him at some point, ranging from 59% to 90%. And polls show that a huge proportion of those who disapprove of Trump do so 'strongly' – which means that they are unlikely to change their minds.

Trump’s recent “surge” of +3-4 points almost surely can be attributed to the better news emanating from North Korea (Kim Jong-un’s recent threat to cancel the June 12 summit aside). Whether Trump deserves acclaim for this is a different story. North Korea was never a prominent part of candidate Trump’s 'platform'...."

[OneBro]

1. I take ANY increase in Trump's approval rating seriously.

Realistically, the guy should be at 9% or less. I won't stop fighting or panicking until he's out of office. If there is any sanity left in the world, he'll leave in handcuffs.

[tgards79]

2. Your point is a good one

No Democrat should feel safe with any numbers, and should dedicate themselves to flipping the House, the Senate, and, in 2020, defeating the GOP president. We don't need complacency and we all need to work very hard.