Stocks are in 'the danger zone,' and it is 'assured' that a bear market will occur in the next year
The bull market in U.S. stocks is by one account the longest in history, but it may not be long for this world, according to one analyst.
Barry Bannister, head of institutional equity strategy at Stifel, said in a note that it would be difficult to time the next bear market, “but within 6-12 months seems assured.”
A bear market is typically defined as a 20% decline from a peak. The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a drop of that magnitude since March 2009, the bottom of the financial crisis, and what many people consider to be the start of the bull market, although others calculate different start dates.
For years, the market has moved higher amid relatively subdued volatility. So far this year, the S&P SPX, -0.22% is up 7.3%, hitting records as recently as last week after tumbling into correction territory in February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.31% has risen 4.6% while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.25% has climbed nearly 15%, thanks to the outperformance in large-capitalization technology and internet stocks, although those groups have pulled back recently.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-are-in-the-danger-zone-and-it-is-assured-that-a-bear-market-will-occur-in-the-next-year-analyst-warns-2018-09-07
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