Seib: Impeachment Could Be a Trap--for Democrats
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Everything about Mr. Trump’s history—before and since assuming the presidency—suggests he likes a clearly identifiable enemy, and he likes a fight. He is the famously self-proclaimed counter-puncher, defining himself by those with whom he is battling and distinguishing himself by the way he conducts the battle. In an impeachment fight, he could do exactly that. It’s illuminating to look at how Mr. Trump summarized the situation in an off-the-cuff remark at the White House on Friday. “Democrats are obsessed with hoaxes, delusions and witch hunts,” he said. “We can play the game just as well or better than they do.” In sum, Mr. Trump appears ready to portray himself as both a victim of his enemies, and the pursuer of them, in any impeachment battle. In such a scenario, Mr. Trump would have the opportunity to offer to his base—and for the president, it’s all about that base—the ultimate proof of the ultimate conspiracy theory: That the whole investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential elections was, from the beginning, a pretense to bring him down.
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What if average voters just don’t care as much about the Russian interference/Mueller investigation saga as do Democratic party activists and the political intelligentsia in Washington? What if they think the fight is just too damaging to the country? Moreover, if Washington’s conversation becomes all about impeachment, nothing else will get done. By the 2020 election, Democrats would have fewer substantive accomplishments to tout after two years in control of the House. Meanwhile, it appears Mr. Trump will have a solid economy to tout. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi already is complaining, justifiably, that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and fellow Republicans in the Senate are simply ignoring legislation the Democratic-controlled House has sent on to them: election reform, net neutrality, violence against women and gun-background checks. Yet the effort to draw attention to those substantive Democratic actions would be drowned in an impeachment fight.
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Some Democrats believe they have a constitutional and civic duty to pursue impeachment regardless of the political calculations. Still, there’s no escaping a practical math problem. A president can be impeached with a majority vote in the House, which probably is achievable under Democratic control there. But then, two-thirds of the Senate would have to vote to convict the president. That’s 67 Senators. There currently are 45 Democrats and two independents leaning Democratic in the Senate, meaning there would need to be 20 Republicans voting to convict Mr. Trump. Can anybody imagine that happening?
This is where history comes into play. Mrs. Pelosi and Mr. Schumer were around to watch Republicans try to pull off this play against President Bill Clinton in the 1990s. The country was sufficiently unimpressed that Republicans actually lost seats in the House amidst the impeachment fight. Mr. Clinton was impeached in the House anyway, but then as now with Mr. Trump, there weren’t enough votes in the Senate to convict him. He survived. The man who lost his job in the process was his main pursuer, Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Mr. Clinton finished his term with a 66% job-approval rating. For the impeachers, it was not a happy ending
https://www.wsj.com/articles/impeachment-could-be-a-trapfor-democrats-11556545076 (paid subscription)
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