Republicans should worry about the Senate

[Zorro]

The numbers do not look promising for Republicans to retain their Senate majority. In key states, Republicans incumbents’ approval has tumbled and Democratic challengers have out-fundraised them.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), whose pusillanimity has become comic (e.g., she finds President Trump’s conduct during the pandemic “very uneven”), now has an approval rating of 37 percent with a disapproval rating of 52 percent. (Compare that to the 60-percent approval for Maine’s Democratic Gov. Janet Mills.) Meanwhile, “Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Sara Gideon raised $7.1 million during the first quarter of 2020, surpassing Republican Sen. Susan Collins after the incumbent had already set a record for the most fundraising during a Maine campaign.” Gideon has raised a total of $14.8 million; Collins, $13.2 million (although Collins has a million more in cash on hand.)

Arizona is becoming a disaster zone for Republicans. In the most recent poll, Democrat Mark Kelly (husband of gun safety activist Gabrielle Giffords and a former astronaut) leads appointed incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally by nine points. He leads in the RealClearPolitics averages by eight points. Political scientist Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball now rates the race as “leans Democrat.”

North Carolina has also turned dicey for Republicans. Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is in a statistical dead heat in the RCP averages with Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham. One poll has Tillis’s approval rating at a dreadful 26 percent. Cunningham also had a massive fundraising haul in the first quarter, raising $4.4 million. Sabato rates this race as a toss-up.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/17/republicans-should-worry-about-senate/

[lagomorph777]

1. We need to pitch in if we can, and also slide some money to McGrath in KY.

Time to slip Moscow Mitch out the door.

[live love laugh]

2. Democrats need to worry about the House AND Senate

Republicans are nothing if not scheming. They’re well aware that they might lose the Senate but they won’t give up both the House and Senate.

So looking ahead at the Senate can only be done with one eye planted on keeping the House. Millions are being spent to eradicate the Democratic gains in the House.

[Midnight Writer]

3. Notice Thom Tillis has an approval of 26%, but is still tied in the polls.

Also, Mitch McConnell has often had an approval rating under 40%, but wins year after year.

The connection between approval ratings and election results seems pretty tenuous.