A Gloomy Prediction on How Much Poverty Could Rise
The pandemic crippling the American economy portends a sharp increase in poverty, to a level that could exceed that of the Great Recession and that may even reach a high for the half-century in which there is comparable data, according to researchers at Columbia University.
The coming wave of hardship is likely to widen racial disparities, with poverty projected to rise twice as much among blacks as among whites. Poverty is also likely to rise disproportionately among children, a special concern because brain science shows that early deprivation can leave lifelong scars. Children raised in poverty on average have worse adult health, lower earnings and higher incarceration rates.
If quarterly unemployment hits 30 percent — as the president of one Federal Reserve Bank predicts — 15.4 percent of Americans will fall into poverty for the year, the Columbia researchers found, even in the unlikely event the economy instantly recovers. That level of poverty would exceed the peak of the Great Recession and add nearly 10 million people to the ranks of the poor.
High unemployment is projected to increase the poverty rate and widen racial disparities.
With jobs vanishing at a startling rate — 22 million in the last four weeks — there is great uncertainty about how high unemployment will go or how soon it will drop, but its potential to leave a wake of impoverishment has forecasters worried.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/upshot/coronavirus-prediction-rise-poverty.html
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