There's a growing possibility of a W-shaped economic recovery -- and it's scary
Theres growing consensus among economists and epidemiologists that the recovery period from the deadly coronavirus is going to be long and bumpy.
Hopes of a quick bounce back for the economy dubbed a V-shaped recovery have faded. Even as parts of the nation reopen, many Americans will be afraid to venture out, and it looks increasingly likely that restaurants, stadiums and yoga classes are going to be operating at partial capacity, at best, for a while.
Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, put it this way when asked about when baseball stadiums will be filled again: I cannot see a return this year to what we consider normal.
What isnt getting as much attention is the possibility of a W-shaped recovery, the scary scenario when the economy starts looking better and then theres a second downturn later this year or next. The W could be triggered by reopening the economy too quickly and seeing a second spike in deaths from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. Businesses would have to shutter again, and people would be even more afraid to venture out until a vaccine is found.
Something else could also cause a W pattern: A wave of bankruptcies and defaults later this year. As companies go belly up, a domino effect ensues: Workers arent rehired, suppliers arent paid, and fear rises about who will be next to fall.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/22/theres-growing-possibility-w-shaped-economic-recovery-its-scary/