'How Covid-19 Will Change Air Travel As We Know It': BBC News
- "How Covid-19 Will Change Air Travel As We Know It," BBC Future. By Ashley Nunes, 9th July 2020. Excerpts, Ed.:
In 2001, air travel was dealt a massive blow by the 11 September attacks, and the effects lasted years. But this was a ripple compared to what Covid-19 will do.
In the heart of Australian outback lies Alice Springs. The town – colloquially known as Alice – is the site of indigenous human presence dating back nearly 30,000 years. More recently, however, a new (and admittedly very different) type of settler has descended upon Alice. Since April, four Airbus A380s have made their way to the small town. The 500-plus-tonne behemoths belong to Singapore Airlines which, like many other carriers, has grounded almost its entire fleet. The reason is Covid-19. The spread of the novel coronavirus has caused passenger demand to collapse, forcing airlines to park, rather than fly, their planes. Alice offers conditions ideal to do just that. The local airport has a runway long enough to land commercial airplanes and the climate is dry, which means aircraft parts corrode far slower than in the sweltering heat and humidity of South East Asia.
Slumps in travel demand aren’t new. Following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, passenger enthusiasm towards flying also waned amid security fears. This forced airlines – then, like now – to cancel flights and puts planes into storage. The industry did recover. Passenger numbers for 2002 were 1.63 billion, only slightly lower than the 1.66 billion who flew in 2001. But passenger numbers don’t tell the whole story. The 9/11 attacks also forced airlines to trim costs through furloughs, layoffs, and most notably, consolidation. Prior to the attacks, the US airline market – the world’s most lucrative – was largely controlled by eight carriers. Today, its four. Following the attacks, airlines also became more cautious and shelved plans for aggressive expansion. This led to fewer flights overall and for passengers, less space as planes got fuller.
Whether Covid-19 has a similar impact on the industry and how passengers fare in the aftermath will depend on a few things.
The collapse in air travel demand has been driven largely by public policy. As Covid-19 spread, governments worldwide chose – in the interests of preserving public health – to ban entry to non-residents. Some countries like India, Malaysia and South Africa stopped issuing visitor visas. Others like the Australia, New Zealand and the United States suspended visa-free travel reciprocity. The move not only ended the plans of millions of travellers but also forced airlines to stop serving once-lucrative markets. Flying empty planes around makes little fiscal sense. Consequently, getting planes back in the air will require an easing of government entry restrictions. There are some signs this is happening.
The South African government recently announced efforts to reopen the country’s tourism sector. With one exception. The move only applies to domestic travellers; international tourists will have to wait a bit longer..reflecting the delicate balance governments must strike between delivering for citizens the economic benefits of tourism while protecting those citizens against the public health risks of Covid-19.
But there might be a way around these travel restrictions: “travel bubbles”. Colloquially known as “coronavirus corridors” or “air bridges”, the underlying idea is simple. Rather than banning visitors outright (or relegating them to quarantine), some countries agree to open their borders to one other while – in principle – keeping their borders to all other countries closed. Signatory countries would typically be ones where the coronavirus threat has been contained. This minimises transmission risk for travelers within the bubble while preventing the importation of new cases from outside. - When it comes to testing, accuracy is everything: The UK government recently moved to do just that. Starting 10 July, passengers from over 50 countries will be allowed to enter England, sans quarantine. In announcing the move, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “Instead of quarantining arrivals from the whole world, we will only quarantine arrivals from those countries where the virus is sadly not under control.”..
Another workaround involves having rapid testing infrastructure in place. The move would allow authorities to screen passengers for the virus and if needed, quarantine these individuals. Researchers at Stanford University recently launched a study to examine the concept’s viability...
- More + Photos, https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200709-how-covid-19-will-change-air-travel-as-we-know-it
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