538: Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016.

But in 2020, 18 of these 19 “bellwether counties” voted for former President Donald Trump. Just one — Clallam County, Washington — voted for President Joe Biden.

The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020.

These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. For instance, Washington County, Maine — the median bellwether county in terms of its share that’s non-Hispanic white — is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelor’s degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-did-all-the-bellwether-counties-go/

[frazzled]

1. Everything changes

And changes continually. So I don’t know why this should surprise us. Uneducated white people may have represented the “average Joe” for a while, but they don’t anymore.

Also, if the counties went for Trump in 2016, they already weren’t indicative of the country so much: he lost the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes. It was only by the fluke of the electoral college that he “won.”

[progressoid]

2. White voters without a college degree

Nuff said.

[modrepub]

3. If Washington County, ME Is A Bellwether

then the whole concept is warped. I've spent quite a bit of time vacationing in that county. It's one of the poorest (if not the poorest) counties in New England with a host of associated problems. Nice place to visit and spend some time in the summer after black fly season, but not someplace for the faint of heart. Blueberry season is the best time to be there. Unfortunately the ME type of blueberries rarely make it to your local market.