Gasoline is becoming worthless

[Zorro]

You still have to pay a couple bucks for a gallon of gas (more in California, as always), but automakers are discovering that gas-powered cars may be a liability that detracts from their valuations, instead of an asset that enhances values.

New research from Morgan Stanley argues that traditional internal combustion engines—the mainstay of automobiles for more than a century—are destined to become money-losers as early as 2030. “We believe the market may be ascribing zero (or even negative?) value for ICE-derived revenues at GM and Ford,” auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a Jan. 29 analysis. He lists a variety of factors likely to “transform what were once profit-generating assets into potentially loss-making and cash-burning businesses.”

In late January, General Motors (GM) said it plans to stop selling vehicles with tailpipe emissions by 2035. That means GM won’t sell any gas- or diesel-powered vehicles, the types of cars that now account for nearly all GM sales and profit. That would require an all-electric fleet, powered off the electrical grid, as with most current electrics, or perhaps through on-board fuel cells powered by hydrogen. While most automakers are developing electric vehicles, GM is the first big one to commit to a full transition.

Ford (F) hasn’t gone as far as GM, but it, too, plans an aggressive rollout of EVs to complement and replace current models. Most other automakers are doing the same. Dozens of EVs will flood the market in coming years, including a Ford F-150 pickup, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, the GMC Hummer and the Cadillac Lyriq.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gasoline-is-becoming-worthless-210636353.html

[Laelth]

1. I will believe that when I see it. n/t

-Laelth

[Miguelito Loveless]

6. You will see it, and probably sooner than 2030

Battery pack prices will hit price parity with with internal combustion engines (ICE) in the next 18-24 months, at most. Moratoriums on ICE cars are already popping up in the EU, with China likely to follow suit. In the US, California is entertaining an ICE ban.

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are cleaner, safer, more fun to drive, and will soon become cheaper to buy, and already are cheaper to operate and maintain.

Detroit must get its act together, or it will go the way of Blockbuster, VCRs, and pay phones.

[Laelth]

18. Nifty. n/t

-Laelth

[rownesheck]

19. Hey!

Blockbuster was still far better than video on demand. You could walk the store and find a movie you had forgotten about. With video on demand, you have to know what you're looking for. I think whiny people not wanting to pay for keeping movies longer than the agreed upon rental period, is what caused this horror of video on demand we now exist in.

Full transparency: former blockbuster employee here.

[Miguelito Loveless]

22. Former customer of BB

and I enjoyed precisely what you describe. The company's mistake was it didn't see the future shift, and dismissed an opportunity to embrace it when it had the option of buying Netflix. Hey, I still go to book stores and libraries, and miss the browsing.

[rownesheck]

23. Yes.

I agree. I was just being a little tongue in cheek. I miss video rental stores.

[Miguelito Loveless]

26. While you were there

did management ever get around to understanding that they needed backup battery power for their computers? This was their major Achilles heel when I was a customer. Power failure caused instant chaos.

[msongs]

2. un my condo/aprtment intense area there is not a charging station in 3 miles nt

[Miguelito Loveless]

7. Fast chargers are deploying at an increasing pace,

While slower L2 chargers are showing up at grocery stores, restaurants, hotels, and other businesses. Adoption is slower in the US, but accelerating in the EU, UK and China.

Building codes are under review in California that will require chargers at news apartments, condos, and homes.

[OAITW r.2.0]

10. Putting up solar panels with battery back-up.

I am adding a charging station, even though I don't own an EV today.

[Blue_playwright]

14. We are thinking of doing the same.

[Miguelito Loveless]

15. My wife and I added two

L2 where we work (her family's business) and solar at home. Our home charger is listed on PlugShare so anyone can use it. Batteries are a bit more expensive, but again, falling in price. I would predict we will see an explosion in the type of setup you mention.

[Hoyt]

3. Like John Kerry's view, "Build them (charging stations), they will come."

[I_UndergroundPanther]

4. How are poor people

Going to be able to afford a new electric car? When they can only afford an old used car to get around without serious investment in an extensive public transport system.

[Miguelito Loveless]

8. Prices are falling rapidly

In a decade car prices have dropped from $100K to under $30K new, used EVs can be had for under $10K. It is all a matter of commuting needs. 85% of drivers travels 35 miles a day or less, meaning most folks can get by on 100 miles of range.

Cities are looking at replacing expensive to run, high maintenance diesel buses with electric and hybrid-electric buses.

We are at an inflection point where the markets is going to change rapidly in the next 5 years.

[NickB79]

31. Electric vehicles cost the equivalent of $1.25/gal to run

And save somewhere around $4,000 in maintenance over their lifetimes (no oil changes, transmission, etc).

Once battery prices hit parity, EV's will be waaay cheaper than ICE cars.

[TwilightZone]

5. I realize it's not your headline, but it's laughable.

Nothing in the article supports the headline in any way.

"Gasoline" and "gas- and diesel-powered vehicles" are not interchangeable terms, for one.

Second, said study, its content, and its topic have no impact on the price of gasoline now or in the near future. It's just an educated guess for what may happen 10-15 years from now. People have been making failed predictions about ICE engines for decades.

Third, cars and trucks are not the only consumer of gasoline or diesel.

[mr_lebowski]

12. This (nt)

[WA-03 Democrat]

9. As a proud Leaf owner (best car I have ever owned)

What is this gasoline you speak of?

Used 3 year old Leafs are great buys. With electric you buy all your fuel up front. Home rapid charger added $10 per month pre COVID-19. Now it’s like $2.

[Miguelito Loveless]

16. Preach it!

I have seen used Leaves (the plural of Leaf, no matter what Nissan says) for under $10K, just avoid pre-2015 unless the battery still has most of its capacity, and you are not somewhere extremely hot/cold.

We started with a 2012 Leaf in 2014, and now have it and a Model 3 (our first new car), and are 30 months into all electric driving. Our total expense for two cars in 2020 was $337 over 26K miles.

[WA-03 Democrat]

27. Congrats on the Model 3!

Those are great too.

My maintenance on the 2015 Leaf has been a total of $45 on 3 new windshield wipers. She will get new tires this summer but LeafSpy (per the ODBI (sp?) port) shows the battery packs are in great shape with a full 11 bars. My wife asked me how long it will last? I think 10 years. Replacement batteries which give longer distance are available and reasonably priced (3rd party not Nisan) which would push that much further.

A road trip is an adventure. Drove from Portland to Seattle normally 3 hours it took us a little under 6 with the Leaf. There are apps that you can use to plan your recharge points. Every Walmart in our area has recharge stations which makes it easy. Driving to San Francisco would be tough but possible. Model 3 would be no problem.

[Miguelito Loveless]

29. You are a braver person than I, Ginga Din

I don't know that I would take my Leaf on that long a trip. Maybe the current Leaf with 150 miles of range, but not earlier.

[rownesheck]

20. I've seriously considered

a used EV, but what happens if I wanted to drive to Colorado from Texas for example? If I'm able to find a charging station, how long does it take to charge? A couple hours or more? That's what keeps me from pulling the trigger. Right now, I could only use it for short trips.

[efhmc]

25. Exactly, I wonder where these people actually live. I can bet it is not any where

beyond Austin or SA in Texas. I still make that trip from central TX to Colorado and cannot imagine any electric vehicle that can do it without stopping once for gas. Which if I go potty take me maybe 10 minutes.

[WA-03 Democrat]

28. We have 3 drivers in our house

Every one wants the Leaf. It’s a great town car.

Texas to Colorado would be a long trip in a Leaf. I basically double the time a gas car would take and it’s close to what a 80 mile range leaf will do.

[3Hotdogs]

11. Local supermarket just installed a free ev charging station.

My county has a free charging station.

Both free stations are 3 miles from me, in opposite directions.


Tesla has a bank of fee charging stations in the new Wawa convenience store...2 1/2 miles from me.

[demosincebirth]

13. I would hate to travel cross country in a car powered by

A battery.

[Miguelito Loveless]

17. Depends on the EV

Any car with 200+ miles is viable, but much easier with a Tesla. I wouldn't hesitate.

[Zorro]

24. I've driven cross-country 5 times now

~2500 miles each way (California-Florida-California). Teslas map out supercharger locations, and where and how long you need to charge. Lots of hotels along the way also have chargers for overnight stays.

Overall it takes the same number of days of reasonable driving of either ICE vehicles or Teslas to get to where we're going, but it's less stressful driving the EVs. I'm considering doing it again next month.

Long distance range anxiety is becoming less and less a concern these days.

[demosincebirth]

30. That's not the way I travel. I go where I have the inclination to go that day.

I almost change plans daily. That's the way I travel. I don't have to worry about charging stations. It's fine for others, but not for me.

[RicROC]

21. I LOVE my Chevy Volt (my second one, too)

.....and I'm disappointed that GM has discontinued it. I can drive using no gas for 60 miles in the Summer (less in the Winter), but when I run out of charge, the gas generator kicks in.

Last year I drove 8050 miles from New York to Florida to Northern California and back to New York. Yes, mostly on gas because I didn't need to plug in. (averaged 41 mpg). This car is not a hybrid but an electric car with a gas generator for the battery.
Great torque..I don't miss my gas turbos.

But alas, Chevy Volt is no more. It would be nice if GM had reconfigured the Volt to be a SUV or a pick-up truck.