How Republicans misunderstand the 2020 turnout story

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Numerous Republican state legislatures are trying to pass new voter restriction legislation (e.g. limiting absentee and early voting). Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress are trying to pass laws that expand access to the ballot box.

The moves from both camps come after an election with record turnout in which there were multiple false charges of fraud by prominent Republicans like former President Donald Trump.

But we should be clear: high turnout had little to do with why Trump ended up being a one-term president. Trump lost because he was an unusually unpopular president, and he likely would have been defeated if turnout looked like it did in 2016.

During his term in office, Trump's approval rating never climbed over 50% in the national polls. In the leadup to the 2020 election, his approval rating was stuck in the low- to mid-40s. The last president to overcome such daunting numbers was Harry Truman in 1948.

-more-

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/how-republicans-misunderstand-the-2020-turnout-story/ar-BB1el4jn?li=BBnb7Kz

[thx64536]

1. After the events of January 6th the only way Republicans can win is be suppressing the vote

A lot of people dropped their registration in the Republican party in January. It will be interesting to see how it shows up in 2022.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

2. The evidence for the overall thesis that the author gave at the end is very poorly explained

An example (one of 3, all poorly explained):

In the network exit polls, the Biden vs. Trump margin among those who said they voted in the 2016 election was the same among ages 25 and older (i.e. the youngest exit poll age bracket among which all voters were eligible to cast a ballot in 2016) as it was overall among the same age group.

(The state exit polls in the three closest states with a 2016 recall vote, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, has an average shift of 0 points as well.)

That's it, the total explanation for one piece of their evidence.

Hardly compelling.

[stopdiggin]

3. Sorry. Nope. If JUST the people that voted Green

had voted Hillary -- Trump loses. If the people who stayed home in 2016 voted -- Trump loses big.
And -- if people that didn't vote in 2016 didn't turn out big -- Trump wins in 2020.

Republican party has been clearly losing demographics for the last 30 years. They're well aware of this fact. And that -- and not 2020 -- is why Republicans are doubling down on voting restrictions. Don't think it has anything to do with "misunderstanding."

[ancianita]

4. +1