HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Editorials & Other Articles (Forum) » A new election forecast g...

Thu Jun 10, 2021, 08:33 PM

A new election forecast gives Democrats hope for 2022

Conventional wisdom -- and history -- points to a disappointing 2022 at the ballot box for Democrats.

The first midterm election of a newly elected president is almost always bad news for their party in Congress. Republicans lost 40 seats in the House in 2018, while Democrats dropped 62 seats in 2010.

In fact, the president's party has lost, on average, nearly 28 House seats and more than three Senate seats in the 19 midterm elections between 1946 and 2018.

Those numbers come courtesy of Emory University political science professor Alan Abramowitz, who came out with his first 2022 election forecast on Thursday.

And while history doesn't look great for Democrats' chances of holding onto their narrow majorities in the House and Senate, Abramowitz's model suggest that all is not lost for the Party -- by a long shot.

"A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate," he writes. "Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House."


1 replies, 745 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 1 replies Author Time Post
Reply A new election forecast gives Democrats hope for 2022 (Original post)
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Thursday OP
everyonematters Thursday #1

Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Jun 10, 2021, 08:41 PM

1. Trump and Jan 6th could be factors.

We have never had a former president like Trump, who wont let go of the party.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread