The Data Are Pointing to One Major Driver of America's Murder Spike

[douglas9]

After murders in the United States soared to more than 21,000 in 2020, researchers began searching for a definitive explanation why. Many factors may have contributed, such as a pandemic-driven loss of social programs and societal and policing changes after George Floyd’s murder. But one hypothesis is simpler, and perhaps has significant explanatory power: A massive increase in gun sales in early 2020 led to additional murders.

New data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) suggest that that indeed may have been the case. According to the data, newly purchased weapons found their way into crimes much more quickly and often last year than in prior years. That seems to point to a definitive conclusion—that new guns led to more murders—but the data set cannot prove that just yet.

The ATF data are the result of tracing nearly 400,000 firearms in 2020. According to the bureau, firearms are traced only “at the request of a law enforcement agency engaged in a bona fide criminal investigation where a firearm has been used or is suspected to have been used in a crime.” Not all guns recovered by law enforcement are traced, and many guns that are used in crimes are never recovered by law enforcement to begin with. But the ATF’s data are the most robust source available for evaluating the increased use of firearms in the United States in 2020.


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/gun-sales-murder-spike/621196/

[YP_Yooper]

1. Interesting

to see what drives the purchases. Those who have guns already largely didn't use them at a different rate, but for some reason en mass (and apparently unique to the pandemic period) some need pushed someone to say,"I need a gun", and then end up using it in the next few months. Is it safety? Need? Karen-ism?
Too bad the Repubs passed laws to prohibit real research into guns and gun use.

an enormous shift is apparent: The number of traced guns whose time to crime was a year or more increased by less than 1 percent in 2020 compared with 2019, but the number of guns whose time to crime was six months or less increased by 90 percent.

[oldsoftie]

5. Thats an interesting stat. Were most of these "new" murder weapons stolen?

Or what % of them were? Because most gun murders are committed by people who cannot legally OWN a gun, so if that stat holds true last year then most of these weapons should turn up stolen. The back round check would prevent a legal sale. Or track who DID sell them & press charges.

[YP_Yooper]

8. Great point!

Hadn't thought of that. Were these stolen? One wouldn't think only new guns were stolen.
But straw purchases for those who couldn't get them any other way? That one's a certain possibility.

[AndyS]

11. I read and posted about that ATF article and as I recall there was no dramatic

increase in stolen guns.

I need protection from "law abiding citizens" who are "responsible gun owners".

Visit the https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/

[oldsoftie]

16. There has to be a rise in 1 or the other.

Year after year, the large majority of murderers are NOT by a legal gun owner. So either that stat changed or there were more thefts/illegal purchases. Maybe someone will figure out THAT stat.
I know one thing, the "ammo hoarders" seem to have run out of money; because prices have dropped a lot and you can actually GET it. So now they can sit at home & go hungry with ammo they paid 4x what its worth today

[AndyS]

17. Well, here's the deal regarding "legal gun owners" . . .

You are a "legal gun owner" right up to the point you commit a crime, like shooting someone, and then you're a criminal. Murderers are counted as criminals. So, yeah, murders are committed by illegal gun owners. Kinda' a Catch 22, huh?

Did thefts go up? Yeah, by simple number but not by % of gun sales and not commensurate with the death/injury increase.

However you make a good case for safe storage laws including storage in cars.

[oldsoftie]

20. I'm referring to people who cannot legally own a gun BEFORE they use it.

And yes, FAR too many get stolen from a car/truck

[CaptainTruth]

7. Excellent questions. Seems like we would need to look at details of the crimes...

...like who was murdered by whom, the nature of their relationship, the nature of the conflict that lead to the murder etc to see what patterns emerge, what types (categories) of murders increased. For example, more people in intimate relationships killing their partner? Neighbors killing neighbors? Random acts of rage (like road rage)? How many included political motivation?

Studies like that, & the resulting statistical data that help quantify the phenomenon, could do a lot to help us understand & reduce gun violence.

Of course Republicans don't want that, they've convinced me they want as many dead Americans as possible.

[YP_Yooper]

12. "more people in intimate relationships killing their partner"

So one idea could be that people buy guns for protection, and being locked up in a circumstance whereby it's so much harder to escape a bad relationship, guns become inevitable?
There is that 'ol relationship between guns and shootings of family members.
There's some other factor than just prevalence of guns as the OP suggests (that it's NEW guns that are the issue).

[AndyS]

13. Not really. Every respected anti violence organization

beginning with Amnesty International down to local police departments recognizes that the availability of guns is THE major contributor to gun related violence.

[Botany]

2. The Data Are Pointing to One Major Driver of America's Murder Spike ....

.... Guns

[CaptainTruth]

4. Imagine that...

...more guns equals more murders. Who could have possibly imagined that???

[The Jungle 1]

3. But we must end all abortion.

These creeps don't care about life.

[3Hotdogs]

6. R.W. gun nut, quoted, posted on D.U. a couple of years ago.

"My 2nd. Amendment trumps your dead kid."

[Evolve Dammit]

15. lovely. Just fucking lovely. Just another deplorable who doesn't mind violence or death. At all.

[Skittles]

21. it's their cowardice that trumps all

just disgusting

[MicaelS]

26. I am truly ashamed to admit that was probably me.

I apologize, and repudiate that. I used to be a gun nut. I have done a 180, and now support very strict gun control. As to why, too damn many mass shootings.

[3Hotdogs]

27. No. it was posted as a quote by a D.U.er from another website.

[MicaelS]

28. Yes, and there was a video that went with it.

Trust me, it wars me. I am so ashamed.

[Fla Dem]

9. Surprise, surprise, surprise!

[Sherman A1]

10. Thanks for posting

Very interesting to consider.

[niyad]

14. NSS

[live love laugh]

24. 😂😂😂 Funny but not funny 🙁

[Javaman]

18. whaaaa? guns led to more deaths? I'm shocked, SHOCKED! I tells ya, simply shocked.

[BeckyDem]

19. Amazing how often we have validation that guns are the problem

but nothing much changes. hmmmm

[live love laugh]

23. Yeah how did we get here?

[live love laugh]

22. Acquaintance told me guns weren't the reason for all the murders.

It’s drugs. 🙄

[YP_Yooper]

25. Just ran across this

Long and short drug dealers are having the users buy guns for them to pay off their drug debt, that are then used in crimes. Sure not new, but gained momentum.

Tammy Shifflett pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit an offense against the U.S. and lying on firearms purchase forms that she was the buyer and that she was not a drug addict. However, she was not the true buyer and she was addicted to crack, according to a recitation of the facts of her case by a federal prosecutor.

She admitted that she bought [dozens of] guns at the direction of a man identified only as D.W., to whom she owed an $11,000 drug debt, according to Assistant U.S. Attorney Brendan McKenna. According to the criminal information, Shifflett bought guns illegally for a month, between Oct. 16 and Nov. 16, 2020.

D.W. and other unknown men gave her money to buy weapons and she stated on purchase forms that she was buying them for herself. She then delivered the guns to D.W. and his criminal associates.[link:https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2022/01/12/Straw-buyer-from-Monroeville-pleads-guilty-to-buying-guns-illegally-for-co-conspirator-others/stories/202201120087|