Invite Russia to join NATO

[Uncle Joe]

BY LAURENCE KOTLIKOFF, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 01/24/22 02:30 PM EST

(snip)

At this moment, minutes before midnight, it's time to change words to alter deeds. Doing so requires both sides to think far outside the current box in which they have set their locks. Indeed, they need to contemplate the seemingly absurd. I propose NATO invite Russia to immediately join its ranks, which, of course, requires it to abide by NATO's charter. This includes Article 1, which requires members to:

“…settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered, and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”

Once Russia is a NATO member, its fear of encirclement will dissipate. Moreover, it will be obligated to peacefully resolve its conflicts with Ukraine. Indeed, it can help enroll Ukraine into its new club — NATO. Russia should also, over time, be invited to join the European Union (EU

(snip)


The EU is the perfect model for this solution. The EU's genius was in making countries that had fought for centuries members of the same team, the same organization, the same family. The EU has had its problems, and Brexit represents a tragic mistake. But the EU and NATO have kept the peace in Europe for 80 years. Try finding an 80-year period between 1000 and 1945 without armed conflict among at least two regions comprising the EU's 27 member nations or NATO's 30 member states.

(snip)

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/591036-invite-russia-to-join-nato

Laurence Kotlikoff is a professor of economics at Boston University. He consults with many organizations, including The Gaidar Institute in Moscow. His work with the Institute is purely academic. He has had no discussions about the current crisis or his proposal with either Russian or U.S. government officials or associates of such officials.

I agree with the Professor's take on it.

[True Dough]

1. Maybe it would work if someone other than Putin was running Russia

I can only imagine him making trouble within NATO like he does externally. Plus, he would have access to all kinds of classified info that his spies may not have confirmed yet.

[Uncle Joe]

5. I believe the only feasible way for it to be structured would be

Russia to have democratic reforms along with peacefully working out the border issues.

I don't anticipate Putin committing to this overnight but the invitation would be there and I believe at the very least, it would create a growing favorable psychological dynamic in Russia for the future, if not Putin in particular with the present.

I don't believe it would happen overnight, both nations, Russia and Ukraine would need to transition and most likely by that point, Putin would not be in power.

[rso]

2. Russia

Absolutely not, we don’t need a Trojan horse inside NATO. This gentleman is looking out for Putin’s interests, he’s associated with a well-known Russian “think tank”.

[2naSalit]

4. +1

Look how he's messed up elements of the UN along with China.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

13. But the Russians haven't asked him for his opinion! Nt

[brush]

3. Isn't NATO about democracies against dictatorships?

[2naSalit]

6. So basically...

He's saying we should kill NATO.

[Uncle Joe]

8. That wasn't my take from it.

NATO could/would still offer a security blanket for the democratic nations of the world, "an attack against one is an attack against all."

Russia would most definitely need major reforms in becoming a democratic or reasonable facsimile thereof nation first.

[2naSalit]

10. It isn't a good idea...

To invite the fox inside the fence surrounding the hen house.

[Uncle Joe]

14. If Russia became a democratic nation first, why would

they want to undermine their own national security being a member of NATO?

Personally I believe Oligarchs are dividing up Earth and nation states will increasingly come under pressure throughout the 21st century.

Oligarchs use whatever resources they can to divide the people and separate them from their elected governments, I believe the fox is already in the hen house.

[2naSalit]

16. That would require

The absence of current leadership.

[Uncle Joe]

19. I agree

but if Putin wants a glorious legacy insuring Russia's security, he can be the bridge to democratic reforms just by setting the agreement in motion.

I imagine the transition would need a period of time so as not to create too much economic instability in the changeover.

If Putin doesn't and prefers to maintain his suicidal, dictatorial hold on personal power, then the offer from NATO would nonetheless at the very least shore up democratic reformers in Russia.

[2naSalit]

20. I think it's pollyanish.

[Uncle Joe]

23. You don't believe there are any democratic reformer types in Russia?

[2naSalit]

24. WHo is currenlt in power?

He's made sure he's there for life so until he stops breathing, we have to deal with him and his oligarchs who are his network of ne'er do wells. We have them here too, as you may have noticed lately, but until they are gone from power, it will not be a safe bet to make nice with that gang.

[Uncle Joe]

25. I agree, oligarchs are the issue and Putin will not live forever.

So what better way to remove some of their propaganda power and hold over the people.

Divide and conquer, is all the oligarchs know.

If and when Russia changes governments, it will have to be internally, it can't be WW3, so to my of way thinking, giving the NATO invitation subject to conditions eliminates a major piece of psychological propaganda used by oligarchs such as Putin.

[2naSalit]

27. I think it looks like...

Hypocrisy.

Wait until he's gone, then see what is workable after those people can have a say without hi in power.

[Uncle Joe]

28. The offer doesn't have to be to Putin, it can be to the Russian People. n/t

[stopdiggin]

7. absolutely not. NATO and the EU

already have substantial dilemma in what to do with shifts toward authoritarian, anti-democratic, governments within their membership. An invitation to Russia would not only shift power, giving cover to existing autocrats - but would cement the idea that any sort of democratic vision or ideal for those institutions, and Europe as a whole, has been utterly and thoroughly abandoned.

"And what price peace?"

[Uncle Joe]

9. What do you believe to be the predominant internal dynamics driving

these shifts toward authoritarianism in Europe?

"And what price war?"

[2naSalit]

21. Probably the same folks...

Promoting it here.

[Uncle Joe]

22. Oligarchs?

[stopdiggin]

49. in a word, populist nationalism

and propaganda (together with concerted misinformation)

[AZSkiffyGeek]

11. I love the bio disclaimer

He’s part of a Russian think tank, but that’s not influencing his opinions here!
Never mind the fact that he’s not even a political scientist and has nothing in his bio indicating any expertise on the subject…

[Chainfire]

12. Well that might work except for the fact

That the primary mission of NATO is to keep Russia in check. It would be like letting China or Russia into the UN, they would constantly want to play the spoiler.

[Uncle Joe]

17. 1. Russia would need to become more democratic first.

2. If we didn't have the UN, my belief is WW3 would already be history, if anyone were around to record it.

[rsdsharp]

15. Oh, what a great idea!

NATO was created to counter the Soviet Union which was advancing the traditional Russian thirst to expand its borders. Putin is back to that goal. So by all means, let’s invite him into the fold. Let’s share intelligence with him. What could go wrong?

[greatauntoftriplets]

18. No.

That's like letting the fox into the hen house.

[dalton99a]

35. Or inviting a mass murderer to share a living space with your kids

[greatauntoftriplets]

37. That's a great analogy.

Russia would need a long period of stability and democracy before this could even be contemplated. I have a feeling that Putin will line up his successor long before he's finally history. It'll be someone he trained and almost certainly as conscience-less as Putin is.

[SheltieLover]

26. Absolutely not! And kick putin's ass out of UN for this aggressive stunt!

[KPN]

29. Sounds Game of Thrones-ish given Putin. Maybe it

would work with a normal and democratically elected leader in Russia - but then we probably wouldn’t even be dealing with the current situation.

[Uncle Joe]

30. That would be critical to its' success, a democratically elected leader in Russia.

Putin would have to be grandfathered out and it may not happen for 20 years but at the very least I believe the offer would be constructive to future relations while also giving support to reformers in Russia particularly if Putin doesn't except it.

[Rebl2]

31. That's a BIG NO!

[Beastly Boy]

32. Who would invite Russia to join NATO?

It is actually logistically impossible. According to NATO guidelines, a country must first express its wish to join by initially engaging with the Alliance in what it calls "Intensified Dialogue".

In Russia's case, it would only go south from there:

Process of Accession
European countries that wish to join NATO are initially invited to begin an Intensified Dialogue with the
Alliance about their aspirations and related reforms. Aspirants may then be invited to join the Membership
Action Plan, a programme which helps nations prepare for possible future membership. Participation does not
guarantee membership, but is a key preparation mechanism.
To join the Alliance, nations are expected to respect the values of the North Atlantic Treaty, and to meet certain
political, economic and military criteria, set out in the Alliance’s 1995 Study on Enlargement. These criteria
include a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy; fair treatment of minority
populations; a commitment to resolve conflicts peacefully; an ability and willingness to make a military
contribution to NATO operations; and a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutions.

https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_07/20160627_1607-factsheet-enlargement-eng.pdf

[Uncle Joe]

33. I believe all that getting our ducks in a row are minor considerations, the MESSAGE

can be passed directly to the Russian people that under the right conditions or contingencies regardless of whether Putin accepts it or not, Russia can join NATO.

I'm convinced this will remove or at the very least greatly diminish a piece of anti-western propaganda power wielded by the oligarchs in Russia over the Russian People.

NATO is not their enemy unless they make it one and could indeed, under the right circumstances enhance their national security.

I believe this to be a win win situation for Russia, Ukraine and NATO.

[Beastly Boy]

38. If I understand you correctly, you are not actually calling for NATO to invite Russia.

You are proposing some sort of a public statement aimed directly at the Russian people, bypassing NATO's own protocols and channels of engagement with Russian government mandated by NATO, to the effect that the government of Russia is welcome to apply to join NATO if certain conditions are met. Imagine what a gift that would be for Putin's propaganda networks. I see immediate, and justified, accusations of NATO meddling in Russia's internal affairs, followed by equally justified accusations of NATO violating its own charter (as in "NATO respects the right of every country to choose its own security arrangements).. Not to mention accusations of formenting discontent within Russia, accusations of naked expansionism, accusations that NATO presumes ignorance of rules of engagement on the part of Russian government, assault on Russia's "duly elected" government, etc, etc. This will easily drown out NATO's feeble by comparison attempt bto appeal directly to the Russian people. Not to mention the accusations of the invitation being meaningless as far as NATO is concerned.

And, assuming that the Russian people have until then been ignorant of this theoretical possibility, how can anyone assume that the sentiment of the Russian people is on the side of joining NATO? And if it is, how quickly will it turn into profound disappointment when they begin to learn what it would take for Russia to join NATO? It would be like teasing them from a safe distance, knowing they will never come close.

oh, and the oligarchs ARE the Russian government. THEY decide on terms of engagement with NATO, not the Russian people.

[Uncle Joe]

40. Yes I am, NATO can invite Russia and Ukraine to join as a pair, subject to NATO's

approval as they do with every other member.

Nations have an inherent right to sovereignty and democracy but not to join NATO unless NATO allows them.

NATO can set its guidelines insofar as democracy is required and borders would have to be settled before they were allowed to join.

As it is now and has been for 70+years the Russian People have been told the West/NATO has always been meddling in their internal affairs, is only about expansionism and is solely in existence as opposition to them.

If Putin were smart he would join NATO but it would have to be under NATO's conditions.

NATO would still be respecting the right of any nation to join so long as it is a democracy, reasonable facsimile thereof and meets their other guidelines.

There is more than enough strong evidence if one wishes to look that oligarchs dominate the Earth, I don't believe we should abandon the Russians or any other peoples, including us because of that.

[Beastly Boy]

42. NATO can only invite Russia and /or Ukraine after governments of each country formally express

their wish to join NATO, not sooner, as per NATO's own rules. This is the first and necessary step for an invitation to take place. Without it, there is no one to invite, period. And there is no one to apply any other qualifying criteria for joining, No need to speculate about them. Any informal expression of welcome does not have an effect of an invitation and doesn't compel NATO to engage in any way. In other words, it would be a meaningless gesture, and everybody knows it.

The Russian people play no role in their openly authoritarian government. Appealing to them would be nearly as ineffective as appealing to the subjects of Saudi Arabia. And it's not the generic Earth dominating oligarchs who are in control of Russia's government. It's Putin's oligarchs, very carefully chosen by probably the richest and most powerful oligarch on Earth.

[Uncle Joe]

45. The first OFFICIAL step.

I would wager there is much behind the scenes talk before hand.

I believe especially at this point in time, gestures of possible good will aren't "meaningless."

All people play a role in their government either by action or inaction, the Russian People have a major uphill struggle against their oligarchs but they know what they are.

Countless authoritarians throughout history have eventually succumbed either to the will of their people or at some point, their own mortality.

When either takes place in the case of Putin, I believe it will give impetus to democratic reformists in Moscow especially if NATO can show to the Russian People that its' about more than just being against Russia.

Don't even me started about the journalist butcher of Saudi Arabia.

[Beastly Boy]

50. Ok, so you are talking about post-Putin Russia, unlike the dude who wrote the article.

That's a slightly more realistic timeframe, assuming that the post-Putin Russia ends up more democratic than it is today. In this cae, I wouldn't rush the invitation until it becomes clearer what follows Putin. It might end up being associated with the enemies of democracy, and then NATO is back to having to explain its invitation, informal as it might be.We are dealing with an unknown unknown here.

[dalton99a]

34. China should be invited next, and then North Korea

Change North Atlantic to Northern Atmosphere so they can be invited

[Uncle Joe]

36. Absolutely if they meet NATO's guidelines, ie:

Last edited Sun Feb 20, 2022, 10:19 PM - Edit history (1)

they become democratic nations.

Ideally if every nation on the planet joined NATO knowing "an attack against one is an attack against all" that should pretty much be the end of war and maybe humanity can seriously start addressing so many other critical, unmet needs ie; climate change.

[Ameri Canadian]

39. NO

You don't let the fox mingle with the hens!

[OilemFirchen]

41. I have a MUCH better idea.

With all due deference to the Professor of Economics, about whom I don't know, and don't care to know a whit, this preposterous notion is being promoted by the selfsame individuals who want to see the U.S. leave NATO.

So... let's just give NATO to Russia, then have all the current NATO members leave and form a different organization, with NATO's charter, infrastructure, funding, et al. Then have the new organization repudiate NATO. We can call it HARPO. Or GROUCHO. Whatever.

That way, Russia enters, the U.S. leaves, and the whackjobs get and give their mutual reacharounds. For the sane world, it accomplishes the same goal, and adds just the right amount of slapstick to allow for the ridicule it dearly deserves.

[Uncle Joe]

43. I for one never thought the U.S. should leave NATO

The primary reasons for NATO's existence is to increase national security and prevent war.

If Russia were to become a democracy and their borders are peacefully resolved would you still have an issue with them joining NATO?

[OilemFirchen]

44. Didn't say you did.

But the meme just oozes populauthoriatism.

[Uncle Joe]

46. "Populauthoriatism?"

If Russia were to become a democracy and their borders are peacefully resolved would you still have an issue with them joining NATO?

[OilemFirchen]

47. At the risk of repeating others' rejoinders...

were that to happen, there would be no need for NATO.

[Uncle Joe]

48. NATO would still be a great security blanket and could last for as long as it wanted. n/t