Anaylsis: Russia blows past another off ramp in the Ukraine crisis
For those watching the Ukraine crisis, February 20 was supposed to be a date to watch.
The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics ended on Sunday, and some observers worried the closing ceremony might be a convenient moment for Russian President Vladimir Putin to launch military action. After all, history does rhyme: Russia escalated a brief conflict with Georgia in 2008 during the Beijing Summer Olympics, and Russia began its slow-rolling annexation of Crimea at the tail end of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi.
But Sunday also offered Russia a potential opening for de-escalation. After all, massive joint Russian military exercises in Belarus were slated to end on February 20, and the Kremlin had suggested Russian troops would go home after they finished, without giving concrete dates. Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei even said "not a single" Russian solider or piece of Russian military equipment will remain in Belarus once the drills ended.
Instead, Russia blew past another potential off-ramp in the crisis. In a Sunday statement released by the Belarusian military on Telegram, Belarusian Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin said the Russians and Belarusians would continue their drills, saying the "increase in military activity near the external borders of the Union State" -- Russia and Belarus -- and the heightened tensions in Donbas necessitated the decision.
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