Why Ukraine Is Different
There have been dozens of wars in the almost 80 years since World War II ended. But if Russia invades Ukraine in the coming days, it will be different from almost all of them. It will be another sign that the world may be entering an alarming new era in which authoritarianism is on the rise.
Here are the two main ways that a war in Ukraine would be distinct.
1. Regional dominance
A Russian invasion of Ukraine seems likely to involve one of the worlds largest militaries launching an unprovoked ground invasion of a neighboring country. The apparent goal would be an expansion of regional dominance, either through annexation or the establishment of a puppet government.
Few other conflicts since World War II fit this description. Some of the closest analogies are the Soviet Unions invasion of Afghanistan in the 1970s, Czechoslovakia in the 1960s and Hungary in the 1950s as well as Vladimir Putins 2014 annexation of Crimea. The U.S., for its part, invaded Panama in the 1980s and used the CIA to overthrow an elected government in Guatemala in the 1950s. Of course, it also launched several faraway wars, in Iraq, Vietnam and elsewhere.
But the worlds most powerful countries have rarely used force to expand their boundaries or set up client states in their region. Instead, they have generally abided by the treaties and international rules established in the 1940s. The phrase Pax Americana describes this stability.
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