Understanding Putin's narrative about Ukraine is the master key to this crisis

[Ghost Dog]

By Jonathan Steele

... The Russian president is a rational man with his own analysis of recent European history. Coming from a former Communist, his blaming of Lenin for giving excessive scope to local nationalism in drawing up the Soviet constitution is remarkable. Similarly, his criticism of the way national elites destroyed the Soviet Union in its final years is sharp. Does he want to turn the clock back? People often quote his statement “the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. But it bears pointing out that he enlarged on it later, saying: “Anyone who doesn’t regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains.”

It is crucially important for those who might seek to end or ameliorate this crisis to first understand his mindset. What happened this week is that Putin lost his patience, and his temper. He is furious with the Ukraine government. He feels it repeatedly rejected the Minsk aagreement, which would give the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk substantial autonomy. He is angry with France and Germany, the co-signatories, and the United States, for not pressing Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to implement them. He is equally angry with the Americans for not taking on board Russia’s security concerns about Nato’s expansion and the deployment of offensive missiles close to Russia’s borders...

... Convinced that Nato will never reject Ukraine’s membership, Putin has now taken his own steps to block it. By invading Donetsk and Luhansk, he has created a “frozen conflict”, knowing the alliance cannot admit countries that don’t control all their borders. Frozen conflicts already cripple Georgia and Moldova, which are also split by pro-Russian statelets. Now Ukraine joins the list. There is speculation about what will happen next but from his standpoint, it is not actually necessary to send troops further into the country. He has already taken what he needs.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/23/putin-narrative-ukraine-master-key-crisis-nato-expansionism-frozen-conflict

Jonathan Steele is a former Moscow correspondent for the Guardian

[Irish_Dem]

1. Good analysis.

[Beastly Boy]

2. Jonathan Steele doesn't understand Putin's narrative. He buys it, hook, line and sinker,

without questioning it. Putin's narrative is very deliberate, and the state of his patience or temper has nothing to do with it. His "feelings" never got in the way of his agenda.He couldn't care less of the Minsk accord, just as he doesn't care about the Budapest Memorandum in which Russia guaranteed Ukraine's integrity and security. The Minsk accord itself, which Ukraine was forced to sign under duress, was a violation of that memorandum. In fact, the Minsk accord is now in his way of further violating Ukraine's territorial integrity, and Putin is all too happy to toss it aside as well.

Putin is not interested in creating a "frozen conflict" in Donetsk and Luhansk. He's had that conflict going on since 2014. Now he wants control of all of Ukraine, as a first step of restoring the Russian (later Soviet) Empire of last century. Thats the mission he repeatedly returns to in his narrative.

Mr. Steele just doesn't get it, or else he is deliberately pushing Putin's talking points.

[JudyM]

3. Interesting conjecture about the minimal invasion being adequate for his interests.

I hope this is true, even though it has its own repercussions.

Convinced that Nato will never reject Ukraine’s membership, Putin has now taken his own steps to block it. By invading Donetsk and Luhansk, he has created a “frozen conflict”, knowing the alliance cannot admit countries that don’t control all their borders.