Stop Using The Midterms To Predict Presidential Elections

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The 2022 midterm election hasn’t even happened yet, but speculation about the 2024 presidential race is already underway, with many potential candidates positioning themselves for a possible run — and in the case of former President Donald Trump, doing so quite publicly. Early general election polls are already testing Trump against President Biden, too, with many questioning whether Biden will even run again in 2024, when he’d be 81 years old. Some Democrats have even gone as far as to venture that a rough midterm election for their party — which seems quite possible — might discourage Biden from running again, opening the door for Vice President Kamala Harris or another Democrat to win the party’s nomination.

But while a strong Republican performance in 2022 might influence Biden’s thinking on 2024, it’s a mistake to expect the midterm result to predict how the country will vote in the ensuing presidential election. As the chart below shows, there’s little relationship between the margin in the national popular vote for the U.S. House in a midterm election and the national popular vote margin in the next presidential contest.1 So whatever happens in the House this November, don’t expect it to forecast the results of the next presidential race.



More often than not, midterm and presidential results have been miles apart. For instance, in 1994, the GOP captured Congress in the midterm “Republican Revolution” amidst then-President Bill Clinton’s poor approval ratings, winning the House popular vote by about 7 percentage points. But in 1996, Clinton ended up claiming a sleepy reelection victory by 8.5 points over Bob Dole — a swing of more than 15 points. In fact, on average, there’s been a swing of about 12 points from the midterm to the subsequent presidential contest.

That said, midterm elections and their following presidential races have sometimes run close together: Democrats swept back into power in the 2006 midterm election with an 8-point edge in the House vote, for instance, and then-President Barack Obama won by a similar 7-point margin nationally in 2008. In fact, midterm and presidential elections have run closer together in recent years — but importantly, there is still not much of a relationship despite this. Rather, this seems to be happening because landslide presidential wins are increasingly a thing of the past. Instead, lopsided midterm results for the party not in the White House are increasingly becoming the norm, then followed by highly competitive presidential races.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stop-using-the-midterms-to-predict-presidential-elections/

[Fullduplexxx]

1. good start stop calling them midterms they are congressional elections

[Chainfire]

2. If the Republicans took both houses, just how much good will it be to have a Democrat

in the White House. It is entirely predictable how that would go. We could have an inauguration and an impeachment on the same day and beat the rush. Day two, the VP gets the same treatment, day three welcome the former Speaker to the Oval Office. If we don't hang on, we are on our way to a single party system of government; permanently. The Republicans have shown us that they will reject no options in order to gain total power.

Our Democratic leadership need to step up and figure out how to make friends and influence people or you can stick a fork in the Democratic Party and Democracy.

[lees1975]

3. The Republicans won't come close to an impeachment majority

They can impeach all they want, they won't be able to convict.

But that's assuming they're going to gain control of Congress in November. I'm saying they won't. Too much will happen between now and then for them to get that far, especially since they haven't done anything at all for the American people since before Obama was elected.

There are too many things in place that are going to push them over the cliff.