Putin may take Kyiv; holding Ukraine another matter
By Clara Ferreira Marques / Bloomberg Opinion
Kyiv’s residents have watched shells rain down on the city these past days as they did in 1941, then at the start of a brutal war in which Ukraine endured unthinkable suffering. As images circulate of families huddled in basements and in the city’s subway for safety while rocket strikes light up the sky, it’s hard not to make the comparison. Except, this time, the threat is from the east.
It’s an imperfect parallel, but a vivid one for many Ukrainians that clashes starkly with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s outlandish claims to be “denazifying” Ukraine. Never mind his narrative — glossing over inconvenient details like the Nazi-Soviet pact — that 1941 is in fact a reason for invasion, an effort to avoid the errors of “appeasement.” “We will not make this mistake the second time,” he said in Thursday’s televised speech.
But it’s also a parallel which the Kremlin, even in its delusional state, would be unwise to dismiss. Blitzkrieg campaigns are appealing in the eye of planners but rarely turn out to be either painless or brief; even for powerful nations with apparent military superiority. Russian forces may well overwhelm the Ukrainian capital, but maintaining that control in the face of a motivated defense force and hostile population, not to mention actually achieving Putin’s longer term aims of regime change and security, is a different matter altogether.
It’s worth noting that Ukraine has already held back Russia more effectively than many thought it would. It’s early days, but the Russian attack hasn’t been surgical nor have particularly sophisticated tactics been on display. A battle outside Kyiv on Thursday saw Russian airborne troops attack an airport, only for the Ukrainian side to reportedly recapture it.
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