Impact of overturning Roe on the midterms? Look at Kavanaugh's impact on 2018 elections

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

In the 2018 midterms, 40 U.S. House seats flipped from Republican to Democrat; 38 of those races had public polling. In 27 of those, the Republican candidate led in September and/or October, coinciding with Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s Senate confirmation hearings; those 27 Republican candidates went on to lose in November.

In considering how the overturning of Roe v. Wade might impact the 2022 midterms, we must understand 2018.

Many have sought to make sense of the last midterms — how they were a check on former President Trump’s power or how winning over older voters was key. These are rational, supportable arguments. They’re also slow-burn issues.

Because Democrats were girding for the 2018 midterms beginning in the early morning hours of Nov. 9, 2016 — after the unexpected happened. It took time. In Gallup’s first presidential poll of Trump during his first week in office, he received 13 percent support from Democrats and 42 percent from independents. Over the next two years, he never again earned that much support from either group. In the final Gallup poll begun right before the midterms, Trump garnered 5 percent support from Democrats and 34 percent from independents.

-more-

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/impact-of-overturning-roe-on-the-midterms-look-at-kavanaugh-s-impact-on-2018-elections/ar-AAYT9uH

[bucolic_frolic]

1. I didn't realize that was a contributing factor

It was uncanny how the seats just kept dropping in our column, even a week later

[msongs]

2. one suspects "its the economy, stupid" takes precedence after roe blows over in a few months nt

[AlexSFCA]

3. I thought it was prospect of repealing ACA that did it in 2018

[CanonRay]

4. Excellent point

[FBaggins]

5. A stretch to say that it was primarily Kavanaugh

It was a first midterm election under an historically unpopular president. That almost always results in a tough election.

Exit polls did show a 4 point advantage on the Kavanaugh issue. But we won the House by more than double that amount. So the issue didn’t actually help

[LogicFirst]

6. Trump put 3 justices on the Court for the purpose of overturning Roe.

Now he’s fuming because his idiots did it before the midterms instead of after. Geeesh