Is America on brink of civil war? Such predictions are overblown and dangerous.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Opinion by Christopher Blattman

In 2016, democracy rating organizations began downgrading the United States, some scoring American institutions below that of El Salvador, then Nigeria, then Iraq. Then, following the Jan. 6 insurrection last year, articles and books began predicting something scarier: another civil war.

The most sensational accounts foretold a national breakup, neighbor killing neighbor. The more level-headed ones warned of something still dire: a far-right insurgency waging a long campaign of bombings and attacks. The disturbing evidence emerging from the Jan. 6 congressional hearings merely underscores such concerns.

These worries are understandable but flawed. After a career studying civil wars small and large, organized violence in the United States strikes me as extraordinarily unlikely. Worse, focusing on civil war dangerously distracts Americans from the real risks.

Now, those prophesizing war have a point. If you take civil conflict from recent history, you find a chillingly familiar list of initial conditions: politics hardening along identity lines; a surge of armed groups; an erosion of institutions. Ethnic polarization and democratic backsliding are especially persistent predictors of state collapse.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/is-america-on-brink-of-civil-war-such-predictions-are-overblown-and-dangerous/ar-AAZ8yhj

[agingdem]

1. no but the media wants us to believe it is...

the MSM loves a "righteous" war and they are hyping the January 6 storming of the Capital like it was Civil War II "shock and awe"...CALLING RICHARD ENGEL

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. Blather about civil war is just a distraction from the possibility of authoritarian minority rule.

[PortTack]

3. Nailed it!!

[dalton99a]

7. +1. Fascist cops and fascist judges stand to serve and protect

[wnylib]

4. In his article, Mr. Blattman says

that he would be more concerned if US military, federal intelligence, and law enforcement agencies were more polarized. He cites the Republican election officials who did not cave in to Trump.

But we know that militias have infiltrated the US military, security agencies, and law enforcement agencies. Consider the Secret Service that Biden replaced for his own safety. Then there are the number of police and former military who participated in the insurrection, not to mention General Flynn. The National Guard had to be present for Biden's inauguration and required vetting to remove the Trump supporters from among them.

A few years ago, before Trump even took office, our own FBI reported that the numbers of active and former military and police officers joining hate groups was a concern for national security.

I think we are at serious risk of open, violent confrontations in the streets, with harm to innocent bystanders. Not necessarily open civil war, but violent protests and counter protests leading to some brutal responses in red states, or from the federal government if Republicans take control of it again.

[minstrel76]

6. I'm inclined to agree with you.

Our democratic institutions held up against the attempt by the Rethugs to steal the election for Trump in 2020. But "a shortsighted but determined slice of the Republican Party who are filling election administration offices with partisans willing to trade democracy for short-term political gain" is now trying to make sure that the attempt doesn't fail the next time. And if their attempt should succeed, this could dramatically undermine the legitimacy of our elections and democratic institutions and also lead to the violent protests and violent repression that you mentioned.

[BWdem4life]

5. We're on the brink of something.

And it ain't gonna be pretty, whatever it is.