Putin lacks troops in Ukraine but fears mobilization in Russia
Although Russia surpasses Ukraine in terms of weapon capabilities, the number of troops it has committed to Ukraine is insufficient for the full-scale war it’s waging.
Russia’s hawks have urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to introduce martial law and to initiate full or partial mobilization to expand the size of Russia’s army and boost its war effort. If this happens, the scale and number of victims of Russia’s war are likely to increase.
But despite failing to achieve any of Russia’s strategic objectives in its all-out invasion of Ukraine in over four months, Putin has been reluctant to carry out mobilization.
Some experts suggest Putin may fear that mobilization would trigger domestic resistance, with large numbers of potential recruits evading the draft. He may also be wary of the devastating effect that it would have on Russia’s economy: thousands would be removed from the employment sector and living standards would fall drastically.
Another potential fear is that Russia’s administrative system may not be able to handle such a tremendous task. Moreover, mobilization in Russia would likely entail a transition to an even more totalitarian system, and it may not prove so easy to transform Russia into North Korea.
Statistics
There are an estimated 200,000 Russian troops and their proxies in Ukraine. By contrast, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in May Ukraine had 700,000 troops.
Ukraine has already conducted several waves of mobilization and has substantially increased its number of troops. The number Zelensky provided likely includes Ukraine’s National Guard and its Territorial Defense units.
Some military analysts say that an insufficient number of troops is one of the main reasons that Russia failed to encircle Kyiv in March and was forced to withdraw from Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv oblasts.
In April, U.S. military analyst Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast that Russia has failed because it has been fighting a "large conventional war at peacetime strength."
Russian hawks have criticized Putin, arguing that he is not going far enough in Ukraine and urging him to initiate mobilization efforts.
One such hawk is Igor Girkin, also known by the alias Igor Strelkov, a former Russian Federal Security Service officer who was at the forefront of Russia's war against Ukraine in 2014, leading the attacks on Sloviansk and Donetsk Oblast. Girkin was also charged by the Dutch Public Prosecution Service with shooting down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014, killing all 298 people aboard.
While Putin has so far ignored Girkin's pleas for mobilization, Russian-occupied areas of Donbas have been used as a staging ground for potential mobilization in Russia.
Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, Russian proxies in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts have mobilized residents of the region's occupied areas en masse. Russian proxies have often sent scantily armed and poorly trained recruits to the frontline, leading to high casualty rates.
More here: https://kyivindependent.com/regional/putin-lacks-troops-in-ukraine-but-fears-mobilization-in-russia
= new reply since forum marked as read
