Can Democrats pull off a 1994-in-reverse midterm with help from the Dobbs decision?

[lees1975]

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2022/09/are-we-headed-toward-1994-midterm-in.html

There's still plenty of evidence visible among Republicans in political campaigns to indicate that the outcome of the Kansas referendum on abortion rights was a lightning bolt that shocked the party to its core. The outcome defied just about every means of predicting it, including polling data and any predictable voter turnout. Both the turnout and the outcome came as a complete shock, especially to Republicans. The result has changed conventional thinking about where abortion now ranks on the scale of importance as a political issue, and how it will affect the outcome of the upcoming mid-term elections.

The GOP has invested most of its resources into a very traditional platform dependent on the long-established "trend" of the party in power losing control of Congress in the first mid-term after gaining the presidency. And earlier in the year, it appeared that the issues they've been banking on, like the economy in general, inflation in particular, might yield the traditional result, though to be honest, they really didn't have a post-Presidential election "bump" anywhere close to either the Democrats' 2006 or 2018 waves, or the notable 1994 GOP landslide following President Clinton's election.

The Dobbs decision was monumental. It has led to the voter registration advantage that was being experienced by the GOP to be wiped out, and to millions of new voters planning to head to the polls with women's rights at the top of their priority list. The President has engaged in the debate in what appears to be an incredibly effective manner which links his administration to the issue that is energizing Democrats and independents. We are seeing a presidential administration working on behalf of the people while at the same time mobilizing its political strength. Did we ever expect anything less from President Joe Biden? You'll note, from reading The Signal Press that our support for, and confidence in this President has never wavered.

[LakeArenal]

1. I say YES!!!

[lees1975]

2. Maybe we should add one more issue, Rick Scott and his plan for Social Security and Medicare

and see what that does to the turnout and the vote count.

[bahboo]

4. yep...hammer the shit out of this....

[MichMan]

3. I think so

30 seats in the House and 7 in the Senate

[BWdem4life]

5. Hubris is dangerous

I think the article is overly optimistic, (although I hope it turns out to be true). We still have to contend with new voter suppression tactics, and corruption in high places.

[lees1975]

6. Yes, we do and that may be as difficult this time around as ever

requiring court rulings, like the farce that took place in New Mexico.

But, I think Democratic candidates appear to be particularly prepared for all kinds of obstacles and many of them are already lining up their strategy to get past a lot of that. A friend of mine is working in Georgia, it's incredible what they're doing to make sure their votes aren't suppressed or stolen from them. I used to live in Pennsylvania, and Democrats there are taking similar steps. What the Beto O'Rourke campaign in Texas is doing is incredible and while polling data down there still follows the "traditional" lines, but he's digging out voters and getting packed turnouts at rallies in small towns in the rural parts of the state. That's one to keep an eye on.

I am guardedly optimistic, but I would not be surprised at all if the Democrats pick up 5 senate seats and a dozen house seats.

[lees1975]

7. Listening to a couple of "experts" today...

on Stephanie Miller's show, who focused on what a total and complete surprise the Kansas referendum vote was, not only to politicians in both parties, but to the pollsters as well. Pollsters are still using their traditional models, looking at issues and how people rank them in polls, and then at how they plan to vote. But obviously this didn't fit the models. The best evidence of how much of a shock it was, and what they think might be coming down the pike, is the reaction of GOP campaigns across the country, particularly in Red states.

I think we will see far more surprises of the Mary Peltola, Pat Ryan variety than the pundits are predicting, which, at this point, is a draw in the house. I think the overturning of Roe is monumental enough to get the Democrats 30 new house seats and enough senate support to break the filibuster.