What's trending, less than a month before the midterms?

[lees1975]

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2022/10/whats-trending-less-than-month-before.html

For reference, in the link above, there are three polls from YouGov/The Economist which are worthy of note. All three were taken from October 8-11, so they are the most recent. They have a B rating, which isn't great, but which is equal to the other two polls on the same subject from Rasmussen and Ipsos, which put factors in place that make the data skew to the right. The poll of 1,030 "likely voters" has President Biden's job approval rating at 48%, a 5 point jump from the last similar poll, and disapproval at 51%. The poll of 1,330 registered voters has approval at 48% and disapproval at 49%, and the poll of 1,500 adults has approval at 45% and disapproval at 46%.

That's a 10% to as much as 12% swing from similar polls in mid-September, what some pollsters call "trending." I'm not a pollster, but I'd call it that. I'm not sure of the factoring they do on job approval ratings, but that much of a shift should generate some interest in finding out what it is that has caused this. The President made a major campaign speech in Philadelphia, which blasted the GOP for its extremism and which silenced a lot of the whispering and speculation about his mental sharpness. He's actually been out a lot more, because candidates seem to want him to appear with them on stage. It's pretty obvious, at least to those who aren't politically biased toward the right, that he's actively engaged in trying all of the steps economists say are necessary to curb inflation. Combined with the shock of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and the revelations that Trump took top secret documents to Mar-a-Lago and there are some reasons to support the trend.

[OtterDave]

1. I give us a 50/50 chance of holding the House

I think we hold the upper house but not so sure Nancy can pull it off again. What do you think?

[lees1975]

2. I think we'll hold our own.

We'll lose a few of the marginal seats, but it's looking good in some places, especially here in Illinois, to gain at least one, and Pennsylvania also looks like the subtraction of one of their seats will lead to another flipped district there. I think we'll be close to a 10-12 seat majority.

I'm going out on a limb, but I don't think we'll lose a senate seat, and we'll pick up Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and when it's all said and done, I think we get Wisconsin and a surprise in Florida.